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Pas_Bon yup, while other models aren’t showing any development like the ICON, the GFS and CMC have a back door front working its way into in the GOM at day 5, we all know the rule when fronts stall in the GON with these incredibly warm SST’s , potential for sneaky development exists

CPV17 06z GEFS for next week, thats a decent signal in the GOM .

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 13, 2022 10:49 am CPV17 06z GEFS for next week, thats a decent signal in the GOM .

It did a decent job sniffing that one out.

The 12z CMC has a tropical storm into Brownsville next Sunday. The GFS has it too but going towards Alabama/Florida. Something to watch.

Cpv17 agreed, they have been pretty consistent in the idea of another GOM system, it is late august after all

It’s definitely time to start paying attention to the tropics. Both the GFS and European ensembles are showing development along with the operationals. They’re both fairly consistent.

Cpv17 12z CMC has a weak tropical storm making landfall just to the west of galveston early next week fwiw

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 21, 2022 11:53 am Cpv17 12z CMC has a weak tropical storm making landfall just to the west of galveston early next week fwiw

That’s an ugly track. Would leave most of us high and dry. Need it to come in further southwest.

Cpv17 Agreed, but it just shows that we may have something to watch as its 7 days out on this run, this pattern we are in could create a weakness over Texas and allow for a tropical aystem to head our way potentially

We need to start paying attention to a low riding wave that appears to come off the coast of South America near Guyana or Venezuela. It’s beginning to get some operational support and has fairly decent ensemble support as well. Many ensemble members have this going into the Gulf and a few of them are on the strong side.

Cpv17 yep, i especially noticed an uptick on the EPS for the wave in that area, definitely something worth monitoring closesly

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 23, 2022 11:52 am Cpv17 yep, i especially noticed an uptick on the EPS for the wave in that area, definitely something worth monitoring closesly

Yeah it looks like the tropics are finally waking up. This run of the GFS and ICON are going to get peoples attention.

GFS has a 973 MB hurricane so far at hour 174, it will be interesting to see what the Euro shows given its ensembles like this wave

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 23, 2022 11:58 am GFS has a 973 MB hurricane so far at hour 174, it will be interesting to see what the Euro shows given its ensembles like this wave

It’s going to bomb out in the Gulf on this run of the GFS.

Cpv17 what an ugly run bombs out at 947 MB making landfall at the Florida Peninsula, this is definitely one to watch

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 23, 2022 12:15 pm Cpv17 what an ugly run bombs out at 947 MB making landfall at the Florida Peninsula, this is definitely one to watch

Oh yeah! The GEFS and the Euro/EPS are going to be really interesting.

The wet pattern continues:

Cpv17 12z Eps guidance

The 18z GEFS has many members as hurricanes going anywhere from Mexico to the FL panhandle. Some of the members are showing majors. Rather alarming run of the GEFS.