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Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Sun Mar 12, 2023 11:54 pm
by Stratton20
Wtf 00z GFS next monday-tuesday… Crazy thing is it has pretty good ensemble support….

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2023 9:52 am
by Thundersleet
As in good computer model agreement to back it up, Stratton20?

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2023 10:02 am
by Stratton20
Euro has a rain/snow mix for some far sw se texas counties, but the operational models for the most part dont agree with their ensembles , the eps is by far the most “ aggressive with snow potential here “ , most likely scenario is the snow falls out in west texas, id only give about a 5% chance that we see any snowflakes here, im not getting my hopes up, just found it interesting that esnembles are aggressive on march snow in texas, plus even if we do see anything the temperatures are going to be so marginal that any snowflake will melt on contact, no accumulations

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2023 11:25 am
by don
The latest snowfall on record for central Texas and northern potions of SE Texas was April 7, 2007 when 1-4 inches of snow accumulated.I remember that day well.

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2023 12:17 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
don wrote: Wed Mar 15, 2023 11:25 am The latest snowfall on record for central Texas and northern potions of SE Texas was April 7, 2007 when 1-4 inches of snow accumulated.I remember that day well.
My hometown got 5 inches that day.

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2023 1:29 pm
by Stratton20
Wow April 7th? Thats nuts, i knew its possible to get snow this far south in march but april? That must have been one heck of a dynamic system to produce snow, also some of the GEFS members do suggest maybe some flurries make it into our region, though the EPS is far more aggressive with that idea

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Fri Mar 17, 2023 11:04 am
by Iceresistance
Looks like that Far West Texas is going to get the snow

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Fri Mar 17, 2023 12:16 pm
by Stratton20
Can we skip to next winter please? Not looking forward to the next 5 months of hell like weather haha

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Thu Apr 13, 2023 6:16 pm
by Stratton20
Both the Euro and GFS are trending much wetter in the medium/long range fwiw

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Thu Apr 13, 2023 6:54 pm
by Iceresistance
Stratton20 wrote: Thu Apr 13, 2023 6:16 pm Both the Euro and GFS are trending much wetter in the medium/long range fwiw
And more Supercells for me...

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Thu Apr 13, 2023 7:52 pm
by Cpv17
Stratton20 wrote: Thu Apr 13, 2023 6:16 pm Both the Euro and GFS are trending much wetter in the medium/long range fwiw
I noticed yesterday the models were dry for us and the CPC forecast was wet for us. Then today the models turned wetter and the CPC forecast turned drier. Makes zero sense :lol:

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Thu Apr 13, 2023 8:18 pm
by Stratton20
Cpv17 i figure it most be the ensembles they are looking at, definitely is head scratching though😂😂, though intriguing to see the euro starts to hint at a cut off upper low at the end of its run, we know what those can do
I also think the CPC has trended drier simply because they want to see if the global models are going to consistently be wet like todays runs or if they are going to back off to a more dry solution

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Sun Apr 16, 2023 2:24 pm
by Stratton20
12z Euro is very active! Wow

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Sun Apr 16, 2023 5:09 pm
by DoctorMu
Cpv17 wrote: Thu Apr 13, 2023 7:52 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Thu Apr 13, 2023 6:16 pm Both the Euro and GFS are trending much wetter in the medium/long range fwiw
I noticed yesterday the models were dry for us and the CPC forecast was wet for us. Then today the models turned wetter and the CPC forecast turned drier. Makes zero sense :lol:
Welcome to long-term models.

I have a weather ouija board as well. :lol:

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Wed Apr 19, 2023 12:31 am
by Stratton20
00z GFS next 10 days, definitely has trended wetter, good soaking rains for many

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Tue Apr 25, 2023 5:58 pm
by Stratton20
Interesting to see the GFS is trying to develop what may be a cut off upper low out in the desert SW in the medium range, that could make things interesting going forward

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Wed Apr 26, 2023 6:50 pm
by Cpv17
Mid to late first week of May is looking pretty interesting, for now anyway.

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Thu Apr 27, 2023 1:15 pm
by Stratton20
12z CMC sees a cut off upper low slowly moving east across the desert southwest, first week of may looks pretty wet

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Sat Apr 29, 2023 2:25 am
by Stratton20
00z Euro drags a front in here next week and stalls it out, chance of daily thunderstorms after the 4th and beyond

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Mon May 01, 2023 11:22 pm
by DoctorMu
May 10-17. Looks like a major low blasting across the Midwest with The Last FROPA of the season digging hard and lifting some hot, humid air: EFS, GEFS, GEPS Ensembles have all bought into mega rain.