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Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Wed May 24, 2023 7:39 pm
by Pas_Bon
DoctorMu wrote: Wed May 24, 2023 3:07 pm Shear is rockin' already in the GOM and Caribbean.

Weaksauce systems and unfocused rain, FTW. Fingers crossed.
Looks like it’s finally Oregon’s turn….

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Thu May 25, 2023 9:58 am
by Cpv17
6z GFS has something that comes off the coast of Texas and tries to spin into a weak low that crashes into NOLA in about 9-10 days.

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Thu May 25, 2023 11:22 am
by Stratton20
Cpv17 I just saw that, interesting
Only a handful of members show anything though so not likely to happen, besides if any low does form it will get pushed off to our east

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Thu May 25, 2023 6:37 pm
by Stratton20
18z GEFS does have a few members that suggest weak low pressure could spin up in the NW gulf late next week, but not a likely scenario, still a reminder that its getting closer to that time of the year though

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Fri May 26, 2023 4:03 pm
by Stratton20
Tropical mischief in the gulf down the road? EPS has a decent single, wont be a problem for us though, just that time of the year though

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Sat Jun 03, 2023 12:45 pm
by Stratton20
And the first GFS fantasy tropical phantom storms of the season are officially in🤣looking forward to seeing insane runs that will almost never verifiy

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Sun Jun 04, 2023 12:19 am
by MontgomeryCoWx
Baseball all day today. Brutal!

Aggies beat Stanford though. Eat it, nerds!

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Sun Jun 04, 2023 8:13 pm
by snowman65
Is it fall yet????

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Tue Jun 06, 2023 6:42 pm
by Stratton20
I want whatever the 18z GFS is smoking😂😂

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2023 6:21 pm
by Cpv17
57 on S2K is already saying it’ll be a quiet season for the Gulf. Surprise surprise.

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2023 6:32 pm
by Stratton20
Cpv17 always pulling the trigger too fast, im not buying it

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2023 7:28 pm
by Cpv17
Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jun 08, 2023 6:32 pm Cpv17 always pulling the trigger too fast, im not buying it
Oh I’m not either. I’m to the point where I pretty much ignore most of his posts.

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2023 7:31 pm
by Stratton20
Cpv17 yeah i think we will have to be on gulf watch quite a few times this season, though the GFS right now is on some serious drugs lol

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Fri Jun 09, 2023 1:01 pm
by Stratton20
I am concerned about an active hurricane season in the atlantic, basin/ gulf , the trade winds are forecast to go ka poof in the pacific over the next few weeks, which slows down EL nino from strengthening, weaker than normal trade winds in the atlantic will help to allow air to converge meaning these tropical waves will be able to hold together longer, also we have not seen this kind of configuration in modern history in an El nino hurricane season but the MDR and most of the atlantic is running way above normal despite el nino being present, also the SAL looks to be weaker this season, mark sudduth summarizes this best in his video today on youtube, definitely leaning towards an active season, such an intriguing setup going forward, its El Nino vs the Atlantic

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Sun Jun 11, 2023 7:14 pm
by Stratton20
The GEFS 18z is pretty aggressive with some tropical mischief🤔🤔 inside of 8 days

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Thu Jun 15, 2023 2:23 pm
by Stratton20
Loks like the euro is hinting at a broad low entering the BOC around the day 8-9 period, interesting

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Thu Jun 15, 2023 6:03 pm
by DoctorMu
GFS just deepens the Death Ridge up through June 25. In time (100s of years) the Chihuhuan desert will probably swallow most of Texas.

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Thu Jun 15, 2023 11:18 pm
by user:null
DoctorMu wrote: Thu Jun 15, 2023 6:03 pm GFS just deepens the Death Ridge up through June 25. In time (100s of years) the Chihuhuan desert will probably swallow most of Texas.
Let's say that summers totally dry out permanently. But cold fronts and troughs (and associated precipitation) still come during the cooler season. Then that'd stave of the desertification with more of a "mediterranean climate" (rainfall concentrated in winters with drier summers).

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Tue Jun 20, 2023 5:54 pm
by Stratton20
user:null quite a big change in the 18zGFS at hours 168-192 actually shifts the death ridge and now builds it over lousiana points eastward, leaving us on the return flow side of the high, troughing in the desert southwest starts to erode the ridge and forcing it eastward, very good run

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Tue Jun 20, 2023 6:46 pm
by TexasBreeze
Let's lock in that 18z run it is much more preferable!!!