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Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Wed Jun 08, 2022 10:46 am
by Stratton20
Don I will admit Im a little surprised they have a moderate zone in that area, operational models arent showing much and even the ensembles have back off quite a bit

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Wed Jun 08, 2022 12:31 pm
by don
The 12Z GFS for laughs.( I do think though TC genesis is a possibility late next week,but i doubt we'll get hurricane out of it LOL.)

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Wed Jun 08, 2022 1:45 pm
by Cpv17
don wrote: Wed Jun 08, 2022 10:26 am Moderate probability of TC development put out by NOAA.
With the ridge over us that would squash it way down south and bury it into Tampico or Veracruz.

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Wed Jun 08, 2022 1:56 pm
by Stratton20
Cpv17 wait too soon to say that, depends on the orientation of the ridge

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Wed Jun 08, 2022 1:57 pm
by Cpv17
Stratton20 wrote: Wed Jun 08, 2022 1:56 pm Cpv17 wait too soon to say that, depends on the orientation of the ridge
I’m talking about for next week. GFS has been showing two systems. One next week and one in fantasyland.

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Wed Jun 08, 2022 2:01 pm
by Stratton20
CPV17 ah yeah next week, definitely would get wwuashed to that south, man we need that ridge to breakdown, i am not going to enjoy the next 10 days at or above 100 lol

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Wed Jun 08, 2022 2:01 pm
by Stratton20
CPV17 ah yeah next week, definitely would get wwuashed to that south, man we need that ridge to breakdown, i am not going to enjoy the next 10 days at or above 100 lol

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Wed Jun 08, 2022 6:48 pm
by Cpv17
Joe B thinks thinks the eastern Gulf and the rest of the southeast coast will have 10 storms and the rest of the Gulf from New Orleans on down to Mexico just 4 storms. Quite a difference.

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Wed Jun 08, 2022 6:56 pm
by Stratton20
Here is a GIF I made of the 18z GEFS, this is starting to get inside of 10 days(240 hours) on the ensembles , still favors atlantic side, also 12z NAV GEM has a string tropical storm approaching the far northern mexican coast by next wednesday fwiw

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Wed Jun 08, 2022 10:03 pm
by Stormlover2020
Joe has always been eastern

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2022 12:47 pm
by CRASHWX
Todays GFS 12 z now NOLA with a retrograde west and heavy rain all the way back to H-town…way out and will change many times

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2022 3:11 pm
by Stratton20
12z EPS, support is low but not zero

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Fri Jun 10, 2022 11:07 am
by don
FWIW the 12Z ICON for the first time now shows the disturbance in the NW Caribbean the GFS has been developing late next week.It also shows the tropical storm off the Carolinas that the GFS has been developing.Thats a little support for the GFS now, lets see if the CMC and EURO pick up on anything.

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Fri Jun 10, 2022 12:12 pm
by don
12Z GFS showing a weak tropical storm now instead of a cane.A much more realistic scenario for this time of year.

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Fri Jun 10, 2022 12:18 pm
by Stratton20
Don even if that doest come to to fruition, we still might have something to watch,

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Sun Jun 12, 2022 10:43 am
by Stratton20
06z GEFS with very strong support next week, no other models show anything so im pretty skeptical, that being said it is hard to ignore that kind of support

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Tue Jun 14, 2022 12:47 am
by Stratton20
Ive seen alot of crazy long range GFS runs but tonights 00z run takes the cake, stalls a category 4 just offshore the texas coast for several days with hurricane force winds along the coast, just fantasyland, though it does start development this phantom storm in the caribbean at hour 192 so its starting development time frame isnt too far out

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Thu Jun 16, 2022 5:08 pm
by captainbarbossa19
12z Euro is showing something weak in the GOM by day 10.

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Thu Jun 16, 2022 5:55 pm
by Stratton20
captainbarbossa19 yep, 18z GFS starting to sniff some possible development in the NW caribbean in the days 7-9 range

Re: Long range model discussion

Posted: Sat Jun 18, 2022 3:23 pm
by captainbarbossa19
12z Euro has a system developing in the Caribbean by days 9 and 10. Looks the ridge starts to flatten out over us about that time too. I think that development is quite possible due to anomalous westerlies in the MDR and Caribbean.