June 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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walsean1
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jun 09, 2022 9:19 am Cpv17 I says the 12z GFS goes with a category 3 scaricane into the central louisiana coast😆
The models are too far out for this. It is nearly 3 weeks out. If it happens then we will definitely be informed but as of now, it is not likely.
Stratton20
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walsean1 the latest GFS has a hurricane off the coast at hour 246 which is 10 days and anything showing within the 10 day frame is definitely worth watching, it has begun to move up development in time, absolutely not saying this is going to happen, it’s unlikely as its the only model showing any development in the GOM, still something to watch
Stormlover2020
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I need to see euro to get on board
Cpv17
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Stormlover2020 wrote: Thu Jun 09, 2022 10:35 pm I need to see euro to get on board
You more than likely won’t see the Euro get onboard until it’s already a tropical storm.
Stormlover2020
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Ensembles aren’t showing much
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jasons2k
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My area of Montgomery County skipped D0 altogether and went straight to D1 on the weekly USDA drought monitor. Yuck.
Two things I can’t stand - freezes and droughts.
Looking more and more like our only hope will come from the tropics, but not anytime soon.
Cpv17
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jasons2k wrote: Fri Jun 10, 2022 10:35 am My area of Montgomery County skipped D0 altogether and went straight to D1 on the weekly USDA drought monitor. Yuck.
Two things I can’t stand - freezes and droughts.
Looking more and more like our only hope will come from the tropics, but not anytime soon.
I’m wondering when the tropics will start to heat up. Might not be till August.
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DoctorMu
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And the Heat goes on
The Heat goes on
Sun keeps Pounding Drought Conditions without Rain



Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
634 AM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Isolated MVFR cigs should diminish over the next few hours, with
southwest winds at around 10 knots developing thereafter. VFR
conditions should prevail through the remainder of the TAF period.
Winds will shift to the south later this afternoon as the sea
breeze boundary pushes inland, with some gusts up to 20 knots
possible as this occurs. Lighter winds develop overnight, shifting
back towards the southwest.

Cady

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 343 AM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022/...



.SHORT TERM [Today through Saturday Night]...

The short term forecast is beginning to sound more and more like a
broken record each day as persistent, robust mid/upper ridging
continues to dominate the synoptic picture across the South Central
CONUS. Meanwhile, surface high pressure remains in place over the
Eastern Gulf, allowing for onshore winds across the area and thereby
further WAA/moisture transport. The main story for the weekend will
continue to be the possibility for continued dangerous heat that
this pattern provides. Gradual increases in daily high temperature
look to continue over the next several days, with highs today again
reaching the 90s along the coast, the upper 90s across the Houston
metro area, and around 100 across the Brazos Valley. Efficient
mixing during the afternoon hours should bring dew point values down
into the upper 60s/low 70s for most inland areas, and as a result
heat index values look to max out around 105-106. This remains below
our typical threshold for the issuance of a Heat Advisory, though
conditions will need to be closely monitored for this possibility
throughout the day today. Overnight lows remain in the upper 70s for
inland areas and the lower 80s along the coast as scattered cloud
cover builds back into the area overnight.

Highs break into the triple digits for most of the area on Saturday
with coastal locations seeing the low to mid 90s. With continued
onshore moisture transport providing elevated dew points, heat index
values of 105-109 will likely require the eventual issuance of a
heat advisory during the afternoon hours. Heat safety actions will
remain critical regardless, including staying hydrated and avoiding
strenuous outdoor activity during the hottest parts of the day.

Cady


.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...

Near record high temperatures will persist as mid level ridging remains
our main player. South to southeast winds will continue as surface high
pressure gradually works its way westward across the Gulf of Mexico.
Daily high temperatures will generally range from a 90-93 range at
the coast to a 98-102 range inland with readings occasionally a couple
degrees higher or lower depending on cloud/haze coverage and wind
direction. Heat index values could get at or above 108 degrees almost
daily, and Heat Advisories might be needed. Again, heat safety actions
(including staying hydrated and avoiding strenuous outdoor activity
during the hottest parts of the day) will remain critical even if there
is no Heat Advisory in effect.

Getting some model indications of possible shower/thunderstorms development
around the Wednesday through Friday time period to our south, so for
now will continue to keep our forecast dry.

42


.MARINE...

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds can be expected through
the first half of the weekend. Caution flags are possible. Winds
and seas should gradually increase the second half of the weekend
and on into much of the first half of the upcoming week.

42


.CLIMATE...

Record high temperatures (year set) for today (6/10), Saturday (6/11) and
Sunday (6/12) are...

City of College Station...today is 102 (1894), Saturday is 100 (1953) and
Sunday is 104 (1894).

City of Houston...........today is 100 (1902), Saturday is 101 (1902) and
Sunday is 101 (1978).

Houston Hobby.............today is 96 (1998), Saturday is 96 (1953) and
Sunday is 97 (2021).

City of Galveston.........today is 95 (1906), Saturday is 94 (1936) and
Sunday is 94 (1911).

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 100 76 101 77 104 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 99 78 100 78 100 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 91 82 92 83 93 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&
Stormlover2020
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Prob will have one more name storm in June and July usually quiet so maybe 2, then prob 5-6 in august and sept
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captainbarbossa19
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Stormlover2020 wrote: Fri Jun 10, 2022 11:58 am Prob will have one more name storm in June and July usually quiet so maybe 2, then prob 5-6 in august and sept
I agree. We could have 1 in July, but probably only one more named storm this month at the most. August and September look very busy. I think Texas is going to get hit by something this year. I could be weak or strong, but I just think this year is going to feature something.
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tireman4
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AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1250 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions will prevail through most of the TAF period.
Ceilings have scattered out with daytime heating and drier air
mixing in. Sea breeze will begin along the coast and push inland
throughout the day, reaching IAH by 22Z, and causing a southerly
wind shift that could be gusty at times. After sunset, gusts will
subside and winds will slowly become southwesterly again. Much
like we have seen over the past few days, MVFR ceilings will
begin shortly before sunrise tomorrow and dissipate by 15-16Z. VFR
will prevail afterwards and sea breeze will push in by tomorrow
afternoon around the same time.

Lenninger
Stratton20
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Their has been a noticeable uptick in support from todays 12z EPS, their are 51 total members, I have two pictures, last nights (00z run on the bottom had only 10/51 or so members showing this scenario , but todays 12z run on the top has 22/51 (43%)or so members on board, definitely a pretty decent increase in the 8-10 day timeframe, and yes I actually did take the time to individually count all the low pressure shown by these members lol
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Cpv17
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96°F with a heat index of 104 here in central Wharton County and that’s probably one of the cooler spots in the area lol
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DoctorMu
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Bam. 100°F here.

I don't believe we hit 100°F all last year...
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srainhoutx
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It was 48 here in the Smoky Mountains this morning. I do not miss the heat and humidity of SE TX one bit!
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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jasons2k
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103 here today. Pretty darn hot.
But guess where I’m at? On my patio about to grill steaks - not inside cooped-up and freezing :)
After these steaks, time for a dip. Night swimming is awesome!
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captainbarbossa19
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri Jun 10, 2022 4:12 pm 96°F with a heat index of 104 here in central Wharton County and that’s probably one of the cooler spots in the area lol
Yep. We had about the same temperature today.
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DoctorMu
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I mowed the lawn late this afternoon. Weather report:

https://youtu.be/qXdmTtk1Mm4
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DoctorMu
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Hey, GFS, CMC, Ensembles are seeing some Bay of Campeche action 18th-20th, drifting NW.

Only GFS brings a stronger system with more rain near the Tex-Mex border
Stratton20
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I think the GFS is suffering from convective feedback biacy, id say development in the gulf is looking rather unlikely now, ridging looks too strong, and we stay dry for the next 10-14 days, what a miserable pattern
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