June 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Stratton20
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Latest 18z GEFS guidance, some do suggest a south Texas track, expect many changes ahead though, hoping for a weakness to develop, anything to break this heatwave and drought conditions, fingers crossed the ridge weakens
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jasons2k
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Be careful what you wish for…
davidiowx
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jasons2k wrote: Sun Jun 12, 2022 8:06 pm Be careful what you wish for…
Was just about to say the same thing. I’d rather water my lawn 3 times a week and my garden 5 times a week than have a hurricane show up. No thanks!

I know most are just hoping for a weak tropical storm with rain, but reality is that likely won’t be the case going forward this summer in the GoM.
Stratton20
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Lol this is not going to be a hurricane, thats the typical GFS Biacy of overdoing systems, but I do think we could get a weak system in the BOC, we need the rain badly, and at this point its going to take a tropical system considering how most of the state is in really bad drought, let me make this clear, I am with yall wheb it comes to hurricanes, no thank you! But any relief we can get from this dreadful pattern, i will take
Last edited by Stratton20 on Sun Jun 12, 2022 8:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Cpv17
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davidiowx wrote: Sun Jun 12, 2022 8:10 pm
jasons2k wrote: Sun Jun 12, 2022 8:06 pm Be careful what you wish for…
Was just about to say the same thing. I’d rather water my lawn 3 times a week and my garden 5 times a week than have a hurricane show up. No thanks!

I know most are just hoping for a weak tropical storm with rain, but reality is that likely won’t be the case going forward this summer in the GoM.
I still think most of the action will be towards the eastern Gulf and the SE this year. I’m not really very high on the western Gulf having much action this season but I could easily be wrong.
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DoctorMu
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davidiowx wrote: Sun Jun 12, 2022 8:10 pm
jasons2k wrote: Sun Jun 12, 2022 8:06 pm Be careful what you wish for…
Was just about to say the same thing. I’d rather water my lawn 3 times a week and my garden 5 times a week than have a hurricane show up. No thanks!

I know most are just hoping for a weak tropical storm with rain, but reality is that likely won’t be the case going forward this summer in the GoM.
I'll take the lemonade now and an early season FROPA later! 8-)
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Ptarmigan
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I will take rain from anything at this point. Droughts are the worst on top of heat waves. Heat waves are the deadliest. The 1936 Heat Wave killed at least 5,000 people.

How Extreme Heat Can Kill
https://www.discovermagazine.com/health ... t-can-kill

Heatwave of July 1936
https://www.weather.gov/arx/heat_jul36

Impacts of Temperature Extremes
http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/socas ... adams.html
Stratton20
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I typed in Houston, Tx on Farmers Weather Almanac and it has a tropical threat in the june 19/21 time frame which is exactly the time frame the model’s are showing development in, the alamanac has surprising been accurate with certain weather events, just my two cents though
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jasons2k
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Even a broken clock is right twice a day…
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captainbarbossa19
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Cpv17 wrote: Sun Jun 12, 2022 8:16 pm
davidiowx wrote: Sun Jun 12, 2022 8:10 pm
jasons2k wrote: Sun Jun 12, 2022 8:06 pm Be careful what you wish for…
Was just about to say the same thing. I’d rather water my lawn 3 times a week and my garden 5 times a week than have a hurricane show up. No thanks!

I know most are just hoping for a weak tropical storm with rain, but reality is that likely won’t be the case going forward this summer in the GoM.
I still think most of the action will be towards the eastern Gulf and the SE this year. I’m not really very high on the western Gulf having much action this season but I could easily be wrong.
Definitely way too early to know that now. The season just started.
Stratton20
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Their is a glimmer of hope in the 00z GFS for potential rain chances, shows scattered showers and storms this upcoming saturday/sunday, doesnt look that widespread but it is showing potential for maybe some rain, also 00z CMC with a weak tropical storm into North Mexico or deep south texas
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djmike
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Ha! I dont think Ive ever been so excited to see just light green over our area. On the 7 day QPF. There is hope!!
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Mike
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DoctorMu
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GFS has a tropical system hitting Louisiana about June 28 now, which would only making things worse.

The good news is that is fantasyland, but they've backed off our rain chances.

CMC still has a tropical depression landing just south of the US - Mexico border, but the ridge will block any rain headed this way. About 50% chance in Kingsville on the 20th, but tapers off rapidly north of that.
Stratton20
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DoctorMu Well lets hope the ridge is weaker so we can get some of that lemonade up here, it does appear on the 00z Euro that the ridge is slightly weaker, bur yeah gotta love the GFS with another fantasy land scaricane, i swear that model has destroyed every inch of the gulf post over the past 7 days😂😂
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don
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Ridging appears to be too strong for any moisture or tropical system to come our way.Things could change but not likely.
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tireman4
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 131123
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
623 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
MVFR CIGS and SCT decks will clear by mid morning as breezy
southerly flow redevelops. 10-15kt winds with gusts nearing
20-25kts will persist throughout much of the day before relaxing
to 5-10kts late in the evening. SCT decks around 1500-2500 ft will
develop late tonight with MVFR CIGS possible at KCLL overnight.
These cloud decks will scatter out Tuesday morning as gusty
southerly flow resumes.

A thick layer of Saharan dust is currently sitting overhead,
causing sensors to readout BKN to OVC skies. This dust will
bring hazy conditions across SE Texas over the next several days.
03

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 340 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022/...



.SHORT TERM [Through Tuesday Night]...

For today, the mid to upper level ridge will slide east into the
Lower Mississippi Valley. This will nudge down high temperatures a
tad to start this week, though with 850mb temperatures at 23-20C and
500mb heights at 592-590dm, this week will still be unpleasantly
hot. Highs this afternoon will be in the mid to upper 90s with sunny
skies across much of the region. Heat indices will be in excess of
105, so practicing heat safety is recommended. The pressure gradient
should tighten up this afternoon as a surface low spin up over the
Central Rockies. This should, at the very least, provide breezy
conditions across SE Texas and some mild relief from the heat. Lows
tonight will be in the mid to upper 70s, though it will feel very
muggy with dewpoints in the mid to lower 70s.

Temperatures will continue to creep down a degree or two as the
upper level ridge advances E/NE into the Tennessee Valley on
Tuesday. However, toasty highs and muggy lows will persist, with
rain chances slim to none.

03


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...

Hot. More hot. Maaaaaybe some rain...but still hot. The end.

That`s the condensed version of the long term period, but y`all
know I love to go in-depth in my discussions...so let`s dive in!
With the mid/upper level ridge pushing eastward midweek, this will
allow for more seasonal temperatures on Wednesday as highs only
reach the mid to upper 90s. That`ll be the "coolest" day for the
rest of the week as another ridge builds in from the west on
Thursday. 500mb heights will range from 590-594 dm into early next
week...so welcome back to the heat dome! Temperatures respond
accordingly by increasing back into the upper 90s and triple
digits through the weekend. Skies will likely remain hazy
throughout the week, but definitely on Thursday/Friday as a large
plume of Saharan dust moves in from the south.

Now how about some rain? PW values begin to surge on Thursday
afternoon up to 1.6"-1.8", but there`s nothing around to lift
it...yet. We`ll have a shortwave wrapping around a mid- level high
that provides PVA Friday through Saturday. PW values increase to
1.9"-2.1" by Friday afternoon, which is above the 75th percentile
(~1.8"). CAPE values generally range from 1000-1500 J/kg along
with LI values around -2 to -4. For all the meteorology gurus out
there, we just outlined that we`ll have moisture, lift, and
instability. These are the ingredients for thunderstorms! Our
best chances for rain (20%-25%) will be along the sea breeze on
Friday and Saturday afternoon before the shortwave moves out on
Saturday night, then we`ll be back to dryness once again. With
increasing moisture over the weekend, we`ll have to keep an eye on
heat index values as well. As of right now, they`ll generally
range from 104-106 degrees, but it`s definitely worth monitoring.
Regardless of that, you should still plan on practicing heat
safety. NAEFS percentiles continue to point towards surface
temperatures in at least the 90th percentile throughout the long
term period, with a bump up into the 99th percentile Friday
through Sunday.

Lastly, there is a cold front to talk about, but this won`t be
anything spectacular. As an upper-level trough deepens over the
Northeastern CONUS on Sunday, a weak frontal boundary may backdoor
into portions of Southeast Texas. This is evident on both 00Z
runs of the GFS and ECMWF. This is also a week out, so I`m not
putting any significant weight into it because even if the front
does make it, there won`t be any noticeable effects. But it`s nice
to talk about something other than how hot it`ll be for once!

Batiste


.MARINE...

Moderate southeasterly flow will prevail through midweek then
become light towards the end of the work week. For now, keeping
caution flags up for the Bays and Gulf waters through at least
tonight, but these will likely be needed at various periods
through Wednesday. As a result of the moderate winds, seas
gradually elevate to 5-6 feet by Tuesday before subsiding going
into Wednesday night. Rip currents will also be a concern with a
moderate to high risk throughout the week.

Batiste


.CLIMATE...

Galveston set a record high minimum temperature yesterday when
the low only dropped to 85 degrees (old record was 82 degrees
set in 2021). The 85 degrees also tied for the highest minimum
temperature ever recorded in the entire month of June. June 12th
is now the earliest in the year that the low temperature only
fell to 85 degrees (previous record was June 21st). Galveston`s
all-time record high minimum temperature of 87 degrees was set
on four consecutive days between August 31st 2000 and September
3rd 2020.

Galveston`s records date back to 5/10/1874

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 101 77 100 76 98 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 99 79 97 79 96 / 0 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 90 83 90 83 90 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Tuesday morning for
the following zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria
Islands...Galveston Island...Matagorda Islands.

High Rip Current Risk through this evening for the following
zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...Galveston
Island...Matagorda Islands.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Tuesday morning for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston
Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

AVIATION...Brokamp
Stratton20
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This is one of the worst weather patterns ive ever seen, I dare say it could be similar to 2011 if we dont get this ridge to break down, hopefully we can get it to move far away enough to allow some gulf moisture to sneak in
Stratton20
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This is one of the worst weather patterns ive ever seen, I dare say it could be similar to 2011 if we dont get this ridge to break down, hopefully we can get it to move far away enough to allow some gulf moisture to sneak in, NWS has highs at or above 100 here for the next 7+ days with no rain in sight, cant get any worse than that, even the ensembles look brutal for rain, maybe an inch over the next 14-16 days if we are lucky, that aint good folks
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captainbarbossa19
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 12:02 pm This is one of the worst weather patterns ive ever seen, I dare say it could be similar to 2011 if we dont get this ridge to break down, hopefully we can get it to move far away enough to allow some gulf moisture to sneak in, NWS has highs at or above 100 here for the next 7+ days with no rain in sight, cant get any worse than that, even the ensembles look brutal for rain, maybe an inch over the next 14-16 days if we are lucky, that aint good folks
The pattern will change eventually, but it may not happen until some point in July at this rate. Even then, it will likely be temporary as the dominant summer pattern appears to be dry. Real change will probably not take place until a tropical cyclone impacts us or we reach fall first. I think next year will likely be much wetter than this year. ENSO is rather likely to finally break out of negative territory next year.
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Rip76
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Such a depressing weather pattern for weather lovers.
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