June 2022

[DoctorMu]

The south Mexican wind sunk the DP down to 62°F late this afternoon. Actually felt OK.

Time to walk the dog while the DP is still in the 60s!

[Cpv17]

The south Mexican wind sunk the DP down to 62°F late this afternoon. Actually felt OK.

Time to walk the dog while the DP is still in the 60s!

I’m up in Crockett for work and was laying out by the pool at our hotel around 7:30pm and the DP here at that time was 75°. Weird how it was in the 60’s there.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 160852
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
352 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022

.SHORT TERM [Through Friday Night]...
Just insignificant tweaks the the ongoing fcst this morning.
Mid-upper ridging is still the dominant feature controlling area
wx. GOES Total PW product shows gradient of higher moisture
situated across the eastern 1/3-1/2 of LA early this morning.
Look for it to continue inching our way under the ridge...probably
approaching the TX border later today and into southeast TX
Friday. With a weaker pressure gradient in place, the seabreeze
should be more prominent today and again on Friday. Can`t rule
out a few isolated shra/tstms along the feature today. Better
chances/coverage anticipated Friday when PW`s are around 2". H85 &
H7 temps, though not ideal, should be lower than they have been
in several days and somewhat less hostile for some iso/sct
development similar to what some of the HREF members indicate. 47

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...
Mid to upper level ridging and omega blocking spanning across the
CONUS will set us up for another hot weekend. Expect temperatures in
the mid to upper 90s with heat indicies exceeding 105F. Heat
advisories may be needed on Sunday and Monday as the heat indices
approach 108F. Shortwaves passing east to west may interact with
the sea breeze to produce a few light showers during the day on
Saturday. A stalled boundary spanning across Louisiana and east
Texas may bring additional showers to areas west of I-45 late
Saturday night into Sunday. PWATS peak at around 1.8" on Sunday,
so there will be ample moisture to tap into should anything
develop. Though the development of these weekend showers will
still be greatly suppressed by the aforementioned ridge.

Our last call for rain will be on Tuesday as a few coastal showers
develop in response to some unsettled weather over the
southwestern Gulf. The upper level ridge should flatten toward
midweek, but with 850mb temperatures sitting around 22-24C and
500mb heights between 591-594dm, its fair to say that there is no
end in sight for these hot and muggy conditions. 03

&&

.MARINE...
Onshore flow will continue today followed by lighter winds and
lower seas Friday and through the weekend. 03

&&

.AVIATION...
A mix of MVFR/VFR ceilings this early morning then VFR for the remainder
of the day. Rise-repeat late tonight & Friday morning. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 99 76 99 76 100 / 0 0 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 99 79 98 77 99 / 20 10 30 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 92 83 92 83 93 / 10 10 30 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

[DoctorMu]

The south Mexican wind sunk the DP down to 62°F late this afternoon. Actually felt OK.

Time to walk the dog while the DP is still in the 60s!

I’m up in Crockett for work and was laying out by the pool at our hotel around 7:30pm and the DP here at that time was 75°. Weird how it was in the 60’s there.

It didn't last. The DP was in the low 70s before midnight and is 74°F now. We're west enough in CLL to get dry air mixing toward the surface during the day with these drought-like conditions. Then the night air refreshes the water vapor. Crockett is too close to Louisiana.

[jasons2k]

Morning update from Jeff Lindner:

Ridge of high pressure that has been anchored over the southern plains for much of June has shifted slightly to the north and east over the last few days.

On the underside of the high, a disturbance is moving westward from GA/AL into eastern LA/MS this morning along with a pool of higher moisture levels. Higher moisture over eastern LA will begin to spread into eastern TX later today. When combined with weaker surface winds compared to the last several days, the seabreeze front will be well defined this afternoon and work inland from the Gulf of Mexico. A few showers or thunderstorms may attempt to develop along this boundary, but will still be fighting mid level subsidence from the strong ridge of high pressure to our NE. Better moisture profile is in place on Friday along with the disturbance over MS today, nearly overhead on Friday. This will be the best chances for showers and thunderstorms the area has seen in weeks and likely for the next 10 days. The seabreeze will once again be the main focus of any activity moving inland from the coast from mid to late morning into the late afternoon hours. Will cap rain chances on Friday at 30% with ridging still close to work against the favorable moisture and disturbance aloft.

High pressure builds back southwest and over the region Sunday and rain chances fall to less than 10% and high temperatures move back toward 100. May get another bump in moisture toward mid week with 93L over southern MX or the Bay of Campeche, but this will not be enough to cause more than a few isolated showers.

Recent heat, gusty winds, and continued dryness is resulting in increasing grass fire danger over the region. Fine fuels (grasses) are suffering the most from the hot and dry conditions and lack of moisture in the top layers of soil. Several counties have enacted burn bans. Winds will be weaker over the next 2-3 days and humidity values higher in the afternoon, but without widespread wetting rainfall, fine fuel loads will continue to dry and degrade. There appears to be little relief over the next 1-2 weeks for any significant rainfall potential and vegetation health will continue to worsen.

93L:
System remains inland over central America this morning and latest guidance is tending to keep the broad circulation over land areas. Hence development chances have been dropped to 20% and this is mainly for the outside chance the system creeps back over water at some point over the next 5 days.

[Stratton20]

Boy Am I rooting hard for the 12 z GFS right now, it really breaks down the death ridge next week, perhaps allowing for some needed relief as seen on the 500 height anomaly map

[TexasBreeze]

I wonder if every single daily gfs run will feature a tropical system hitting somewhere in the Gulf or US in general this season? It has another one for our area!

[cperk]

I wonder if every single daily gfs run will feature a tropical system hitting somewhere in the Gulf or US in general this season? It has another one for our area!

Yeah the 12Z GFS has a cat one hurricane coming in around Galveston at hour 288 (6/28) a little earlier than previous runs but no support from other models yet.

[tireman4]

FXUS64 KHGX 161736
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1236 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions will prevail the rest of the afternoon and
evening. Isolated showers possible east of I-45 this afternoon,
but will subside shortly after sunset. Coverage of these pop up
showers and model uncertainty did not warrant mention of VCSH in
the near term, but expect amendments should a pop up shower move
over an airport. Otherwise, patchy fog possible north of IAH and
west of I-45 during the early morning hours from 09-14Z, but will
dissipate soon after sunrise. A brief MVFR cumulus ceiling from
1500-2500ft expected again tomorrow morning from 12-14Z for
portions of Southeast Texas, much like we have seen the past
several days. A passing upper level low could help kick up the sea
breeze tomorrow, so starting mentioning VCSH along the coast early
tomorrow morning and push further north throughout the day as the
sea breeze pushes further inland. VCSH will transition to VCTS by
the afternoon.

Lenninger

[Stratton20]

Be very careful with looking at the GFS runs showing a hurricane hitting texas at hour 288, the model has what is known as a convective feedback biacy, and that biacy has shown to begin hurricane season, heck its 0/2 to start this season, was way off on 93L , it tried to produce a strong storm but nothing ever came out of 93L, take the GFS with a grain of salt right now

[Cromagnum]

Hurricanes, let alone stronger ones rarely hit this early in the season. Until an actual low CoC forms somewhere my eyebrows remain unraised.

[captainbarbossa19]

99 for the high so far today. I'm ready for fall.

[Rip76]

Storms moving from Louisiana.
Will they make it?

[Cromagnum]

Storms moving from Louisiana.
Will they make it?

To Beaumont maybe.

[djmike]

I hear thunder in the distance. Hopefully I get some of that liquid gold headed west entering the beaumont triangle.

[davidiowx]

Storms moving from Louisiana.
Will they make it?

Probably have a better chance tomorrow. Hopefully. I had a plumber out at my office building today to fix a backup and he was telling me they have been so busy with broken meters and etc. due to the ground drying up and shifting these last couple of weeks. Pretty crazy.

[djmike]

Yeah Ive noticed my ground is cracking. Big cracks from this heat. Starting to pull away from the foundation too. Im gonna need to water around my foundation.

[DoctorMu]

I'm bummed that it is 3-4°F cooler in Kingsville than in CLL. They have some rain in the forecast a week out.

[Texaspirate11]

I'm hoping since we feel like July in June, climo wise, maybe we can get an early fall. Heres hoping.

[captainbarbossa19]

So according to CSU's probability table of tropical cyclone impacts, Matagorda County has a 53% chance of seeing a tropical cyclone impact this year. The normal chance is 32%. It also has a 31% chance of seeing a hurricane impact when the normal chance is 17%.

https://tropical.colostate.edu/TC_impact.html