June 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
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Re: June 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 5:23 pm

DoctorMu Agreed, 18z GFS goes absolutely crazy with the wave after it gets into the eastern caribbean , definitely one to watch, and definitely not a good sign on what may come down the road in the tropics

Cpv17
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Re: June 2022

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 7:23 pm

We now have invest 94L out in the MDR.

walsean1
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Re: June 2022

Post by walsean1 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 9:33 pm

Stratton20 wrote:
Thu Jun 23, 2022 5:23 pm
DoctorMu Agreed, 18z GFS goes absolutely crazy with the wave after it gets into the eastern caribbean , definitely one to watch, and definitely not a good sign on what may come down the road in the tropics
As hot as the gulf waters are, it only take 1 strong landfall Hurricane to make it a bad year

Stratton20
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Re: June 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 10:20 pm

00z ICON still develops a weak tropical storm next week FWIW, makes landfall around galveston
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don
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Re: June 2022

Post by don » Thu Jun 23, 2022 10:43 pm

The 0Z GFS also tries to spin up the system before it moves inland.
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Stratton20
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Re: June 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 10:49 pm

Don yup and the GFS has a pretty Hefty bullseye of 7-10 inches along the coast from this run, will definitely have to watch and see if any development occurs as that could easily lead to rain fall totals going up with a more organized system

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captainbarbossa19
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Re: June 2022

Post by captainbarbossa19 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 11:50 pm

Stratton20 wrote:
Thu Jun 23, 2022 10:49 pm
Don yup and the GFS has a pretty Hefty bullseye of 7-10 inches along the coast from this run, will definitely have to watch and see if any development occurs as that could easily lead to rain fall totals going up with a more organized system
Yep. Watch this be a major rain event because we have been so dry the past few months.

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djmike
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Re: June 2022

Post by djmike » Fri Jun 24, 2022 5:48 am

Here we go…. Stay hydrated and stay cool! Help out the elderly or neighbor if needing assistance in this weekend’s extreme heat. Stay safe everyone!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)

Stratton20
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Re: June 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Fri Jun 24, 2022 9:20 am

06z GFS is still really close to closing off a Low FWIW

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don
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Re: June 2022

Post by don » Fri Jun 24, 2022 9:29 am

HGX mentions the vorticity and surface trough in there discussion this morning.
Weather pattern begins to change Sunday night into the upcoming
week as ridging aloft weakens. In fact, a reinforcing surge of
Gulf moisture will move through the region with PWATs increasing
into the 2.0 to 2.2 inch range by Monday. Additionally, a weak sfc
boundary is progged to move through Southeast TX while some mid-
level vort maxes ride the southeastern edge of the upper-level
ridge. Sufficient forcing aloft, deep convergence and moisture
will result in showers and thunderstorms ahead and along the
boundary. It won`t be a complete washout, but at least, a relief
from the heat. The aforementioned front retreats and becomes
quasi-stationary over the Gulf waters after Tuesday. With abundant
moisture and low-level convergence this will be the main focus
for rain/storm chances through most of the week. Have kept 20 to
45 of PoPs through the week with highest chances Monday and
Tuesday.

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