June 2022

[Scott747]

It's still quite disorganized but is at least beginning to look like a tropical system with some curvature taking shape around the overall system. Nice initial coordinates from yesterday for the recon flight (O) later today with the area just to the e and drifting w trying to take hold.

[don]

Yep, looks like a broad LLC is trying to wrap convection over itself.

[Stratton20]

And the recon flight is going in now, not quite sure they will find enough to call this a depression but it sure is getting their, that LLC definitely is trying hard lol

[djmike]

The 3k Nam QPF gives us in Beaumont a better amount of moisture. All qpf Ive seen seem to drop off east of Baytown as far as decent precipitation.

[don]

And the recon flight is going in now, not quite sure they will find enough to call this a depression but it sure is getting their, that LLC definitely is trying hard lol

Yep,if they don't find a Depression they may find enough for a PTC,we will see.

[don]

12Z GFS QPF

[Stratton20]

I think the global models are under-doing these rainfall totals or potential but I guess thats typical when it comes to tropical systems, just my two cents though, i guess it depends on where a rain band sets up, definitely hoping for more than 1 inch like the GFS shows for me

[don]

I think the global models are under-doing these rainfall totals, just my two cents though, i guess it depends on where a rain band sets up

I agree,its completely normal for global models to under due rain,especially with tropical rains.As they lack the resolution to "see" mesoscale features.Thats why mesoscale models are better in the short range at predicting rainfall totals.Some areas could easily see double or triple the amounts the GFS is showing.

[Stormlover2020]

Always normal, keeps shift east tonight’s runs will be interested

[Stratton20]

As it this system isnt enough, the GFS is hinting at another gulf system within the first week of July, we will see about that

[don]

Recon is in the storm now lets see what they find...

[tireman4]

To piggyback on what Don stated, Recon into the system as we speak..they have found a change in wind direction

[mcheer23]

HWRF and HMON came in a little more aggressive....

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 291726
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1226 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions and easterly to southeasterly winds will prevail
throughout the day, so the main weather impacts will be rain from
an area of low pressure in the Northwestern Gulf. High-resolution
model guidance continues to point towards convection developing
around 20Z-21Z near the I-10 corridor with scattered SHRA/TSRA
persisting mainly IAH and southward through sunset. In the
nighttime hours, convection reignites offshore and moves inland
on early Thursday morning. Expect coverage to be rather widespread
and persist into at least the afternoon hours. Ceilings may
bounce in and out of MVFR/VFR dependent on proximity to SHRA/TSRA
on Thursday. Light and variable winds overnight will become
southeasterly in the midmorning hours around 10-12 knots.

Batiste

[davidiowx]

Looks like another wind change around 25.7N and 95.3W

[captainbarbossa19]

Looks like another wind change around 25.7N and 95.3W

Looks like convection is really trying to organize there on satellite and radar. Will have to watch and see if the convection persists.

[tireman4]

This is what David and the good Captain are talking about..

[davidiowx]

Looks like another wind change around 25.7N and 95.3W

Looks like convection is really trying to organize there on satellite and radar. Will have to watch and see if the convection persists.

Agreed and it really hasn't moved much either.

[tireman4]

1. Northern Gulf of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico have increased since
this morning but remain disorganized. This system is forecast to
move slowly westward and approach the coast of southern Texas and
northern Mexico by early Thursday. Some slow development is still
possible and it could become a short-lived tropical depression near
the coast before it turns northwestward and moves inland over Texas
on Thursday. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be possible
along portions of the Texas coast for the next few days. For more
information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products
issued by your National Weather Service office. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter plane is currently investigating the disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[DoctorMu]

Without much movement, there's plenty of warm GoM water for organizing. But expecting some north drifting lemonade!