June 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 3694
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

June 2022

Post by tireman4 » Mon May 16, 2022 11:05 am

Will we have tropical mischief? Rain? Cool weather? Time will tell

User avatar
captainbarbossa19
Posts: 323
Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2021 1:50 pm
Location: Starkville, MS
Contact:

Re: June 2022

Post by captainbarbossa19 » Tue May 31, 2022 12:13 pm

Below average rainfall looks likely for the first 10 days of June. Hoping we can get a tropical wave to move northward towards the middle or latter part of the month.

Stratton20
Posts: 2749
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Re: June 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Tue May 31, 2022 5:51 pm

The time frame to watch is the 10-15th, GFS hinting at some mischief, very far out so take with a huge grain of salt, but the background environment looks decently favorable for development through JUNE. Just something to watch down the road.

User avatar
djmike
Posts: 1488
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 12:19 pm
Location: BEAUMONT, TX
Contact:

Re: June 2022

Post by djmike » Tue May 31, 2022 8:15 pm

Happy Hurricane Season. Hopefully nothing too serious this year for anyone. Would like a little rain maker though. That’s about it.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)

User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 4191
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 10:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Re: June 2022

Post by DoctorMu » Wed Jun 01, 2022 1:26 pm

Heading back to CLL tomorrow, and will pass the front easing down from Arkansas.

Streamers, me a believer!. Could be spotty showers with the front as well.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1239 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Streamer showers continue to prevail mainly north of I-10 and west
of I-45. By 20-21Z, scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop as well and should only impact the northern three sites
(CLL/UTS/CXO). After sunset, showers/thunderstorm activity will
dissipate along with decreasing winds. Winds eventually become
light and variable after midnight. MVFR ceilings will move in from
the northwest and affect the northern three sites with ceilings
generally around 1500-2500 feet. Model guidance is also indicating
the potential for decreased visibility as well in the 11Z-15Z
timeframe, so I have hinted at that with 6SM BR for the northern
sites. Conditions become VFR once again after 15Z. A slight wind
shift is also expected with the northern and central sites having
light northerly winds behind a weak cold front while the coastal
sites remain southerly.

Batiste

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 613 AM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022/...

.DISCUSSION...

A very weak front moving into the area late this week should give
us a small break from this stretch of hot fair weather. Just don`t
expect a big break, as temperatures still look very warm - only a
small handful of degrees lower - with mostly only 25-35 percent
chances of showers and storms. The weekend will be spent in a
transition back to hotter, more humid, and fair weather that will
become more established next week.

.SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Night]...

Some light streamer showers have moved onshore early this morning
bringing a quick trace to a tenth of an inch of precipitation across
isolated portions of the coast. These isolated to scattered showers
will become popup thunderstorms after the mid morning as daytime
heating becomes more abundant. The showers and thunderstorms today
will be able to pop up pretty much anywhere across the region, but
they will be isolated and quick moving. So, if you get rained on -
just wait a few minutes or move a street over and you should be dry.
CAPE values this afternoon climb to around 2000-2500 J/kg with PWATs
nearing 1.7", so the storms today will have the chance to pack a bit
of punch with gusty winds and locally heavy rain. Again, the storms
will be quick moving and isolated, so not expecting any flooding
concerns. Temperatures this afternoon should be able to climb into
the low 90s, however some spots may stay in the 80s if they get a
thunderstorm during peak heating. Coverage of precipitation shrinks
in the late evening with the loss of daytime heating.

Expect another unseasonably warm night tonight with lows in the mid
70s for most of the area and near 80 along the immediate coast.
Light winds and increasing moisture will lead to patchy fog tonight
in low lying areas. Meanwhile, a weak boundary will be approaching
from the north. It will slowly meander to the College Station-
Crockett line by around sunrise Thursday. This boundary will be a
focus for showers and thunderstorms during the day on Thursday.
Another focus will be along the sea breeze near the coast during the
afternoon. Again, plenty of moisture and energy to feed these
showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures on Thursday will again be in
the low to mid 90s for the bulk of the area, but increased cloud
cover north of Huntsville thanks to the slow moving boundary will
keep that area in the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...

Friday should see the front, or at least what`s left of it,
continue to slowly drift in the direction of the Gulf coast. It`s
uncertain if the front will actually make it, although it will be
so weak and diffuse, I don`t suppose it really matters all that
much. Temperatures look to be a bit cooler, particularly north of
the Houston metro. This is probably due to a bit of drier air
filtering in and giving us a cooler start up there to the day.
We`ll also probably see a bit of downward pressure thanks to
cloudiness and chances for showers and storms Friday afternoon.

Northwest flow aloft continues through the weekend, though onshore
winds return at the surface. With a couple shortwaves moving
through, mainly to our northeast, think the NBM might be a touch
aggressive in going with fair weather. Introduce some slight
chance PoPs, north/northeast of Houston. It`s probably folly to
read too much into shortwave timing and placement this far out,
but that should be the best shot for seeing any lingering rain
into the weekend - it would take the guidance being off pretty far
to the northeast for rain chances to dig further into the forecast
area.

The NBM again appears too aggressive with the warmup this weekend
and early next week - these shortwaves and the lower heights in
the wake of our early tropical feature of interest looks to hold
back the growing ridge, and the environment just doesn`t seem
supportive of the near-record temps indicated in the deterministic
NBM. Have shot for a little lower in the probability distribution
but still above seasonal averages. It`ll be hot...just probably
not that hot.

Hotter temps may be more a focus of later in the week, as the
midlevel ridge looks to build back over Texas from the west, and
590+ dm 500 mb heights emerge over the state from Wednesday on. Of
course, this is mostly beyond the forecast period. However, wanted
to mention it to sketch out taking the same warming trend in the
NBM, just at a slightly lower level for the first half of the
week.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds remain a bit gusty early this morning, and will
conservatively stretch the caution flags out to mid-morning.
More moderate onshore winds will gradually diminish today and
into the second half of the week as a very weak cold front enters
Southeast Texas and the pressure gradient weakens. A brief period
of offshore winds and scattered thunderstorms may be seen on
Friday as the weak front sags to the coast. Onshore flow should
quickly return by the weekend as high pressure settles in over the
western Gulf.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Another two record high minimum temperature records were matched
yesterday. Hobby Airport only fell to 79 degrees, tying its record
last seen in 2013. Meanwhile, at Galveston, Gulf water temps in
the lower half of the 80s kept the minimum temperature there at 83
degrees. This breaks the previous record of 81, which occurred in
2018.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 75 92 72 90 71 / 20 20 20 30 10
Houston (IAH) 74 93 74 91 71 / 10 30 30 30 20
Galveston (GLS) 80 88 78 87 78 / 10 20 20 20 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria
Islands...Galveston Island...Matagorda Islands.

GM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM...Luchs
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Luchs
CLIMATE...Luchs/Fowler

User avatar
captainbarbossa19
Posts: 323
Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2021 1:50 pm
Location: Starkville, MS
Contact:

Re: June 2022

Post by captainbarbossa19 » Wed Jun 01, 2022 4:58 pm

I think this summer we will see some sort of tropical system, possibly more significant than Nicholas last year. Hopefully nothing too serious, but as usual, we will need to keep an eye out.

Stratton20
Posts: 2749
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Re: June 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Wed Jun 01, 2022 5:06 pm

Captainbarbossa19 the GFS continues to say the next few weeks of June “ Could potentially “ be somewhat active, favors rising air with an exception of a small period of suppression, will see if anything else tries to get spinning up in the weeks ahead
Attachments
gfs_chi200_global_fh0-384 2.gif

User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 4591
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

Re: June 2022

Post by jasons2k » Thu Jun 02, 2022 8:18 am

So this front is supposed to come through in a few hours, and during my morning run, I noticed the surface wind along with the low level clouds were moving from the W/NW. What the heck? After days of a blasting south wind we get this hours before the front? How are we supposed to get any decent surface convergence with this garbage setup? Ugh.

User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 4591
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

Re: June 2022

Post by jasons2k » Thu Jun 02, 2022 11:14 am

Brief heavy shower here now!

Cromagnum
Posts: 1914
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:42 pm
Contact:

Re: June 2022

Post by Cromagnum » Thu Jun 02, 2022 1:05 pm

Popcorn is popping.

Post Reply