June 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
mcheer23
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Not sure why chances are still at 10/20. I have them at 30/50 right now.
Stratton20
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mcheer23 they are pretty conservative, i would be shocked if they dont up the development odds at the 2 pm outlook
TexasBreeze
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don wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 10:59 am Makes since as the TC is absorbing all the moisture away.BTW there is a rapid increase in convection south of Louisiana this morning with a broad circulation forming.
Is that the area to watch? I noticed that a bit ago there
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don
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TexasBreeze wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 11:17 am
don wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 10:59 am Makes since as the TC is absorbing all the moisture away.BTW there is a rapid increase in convection south of Louisiana this morning with a broad circulation forming.
Is that the area to watch? I noticed that a bit ago there
Yes that's the area that will slowly move west over the next couple of days.
Stratton20
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It definitely appears a broad circulation is attempting to form like Don said, interesting days ahead
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captainbarbossa19
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mcheer23 wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 11:05 am Not sure why chances are still at 10/20. I have them at 30/50 right now.
They have the other wave east of 94L with identical chances over 5 days even though it has less model support. Real-time trends show increasing vorticity over the Gulf at 925 and 850mb. Imo, I agree the chances should be higher than 10/20 at this point.
mcheer23
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New update...still 20 percent...
Kingwood32
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mcheer23 wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 1:13 pm New update...still 20 percent...
They must know something we don't lol...
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don
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12Z Euro went back to showing a Tropical Low or Depression.
mcheer23
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don wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 1:37 pm 12Z Euro went back to showing a Tropical Low or Depression.
Yup, nice rainfall totals though. Widespread 3-5 inches on the west side. Isolated 6+
Last edited by mcheer23 on Mon Jun 27, 2022 1:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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don
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The EURO shows some nice rainfall totals from the system.
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Screenshot 2022-06-27 at 13-20-08 Models ECMWF Hi-Res — Pivotal Weather.png
Kingwood32
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So they r going with the euro on this and holding off on Development?
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captainbarbossa19
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mcheer23 wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 1:42 pm
don wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 1:37 pm 12Z Euro went back to showing a Tropical Low or Depression.
Yup, nice rainfall totals though. Widespread 3-5 inches on the west side. Isolated 6+
I need those totals to shift east a little more. Maybe it can do that and keep everyone else in it too. 1-2 inches is not going to help much. I would like 3-5 so my pond can get back to more normal levels.
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Models will get more support with him trying to develop now, close home brew system
Stratton20
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NHC is being way too conservative, I personally think this should be around a 40% chance to develop
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captainbarbossa19
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 2:04 pm NHC is being way too conservative, I personally think this should be around a 40% chance to develop
I think they may wait till tomorrow morning to raise chances at this rate. Most models start tightening the circulation then. I am noticing steady eastward shifts with the Euro. I think the center will most likely come on shore between Palacios and Galveston.
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djmike
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Well that qpf gives everyone but Beaumont a good chance of rain. Itll be my luck…
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djmike wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 2:26 pm Well that qpf gives everyone but Beaumont a good chance of rain. Itll be my luck…
At least your area benefited from some of the popup storms that blew through the border over the last week. Most of us haven't seen a drop in weeks.

Hopefully this system can halt the desert feedback loop and open the door for a more "normal" rainfall pattern.
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captainbarbossa19
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Cromagnum wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 2:33 pm
djmike wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 2:26 pm Well that qpf gives everyone but Beaumont a good chance of rain. Itll be my luck…
At least your area benefited from some of the popup storms that blew through the border over the last week. Most of us haven't seen a drop in weeks.

Hopefully this system can halt the desert feedback loop and open the door for a more "normal" rainfall pattern.
Yeah that's what I'm really hoping for too. I live a few miles west of djmike and I haven't had nearly as much rain either. It's been rather isolated amounts of heavy rain in the Triangle overall.
Stratton20
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I got shafted by a storm up here last night, all thunder/lightning but no rain, what a troll haha, I hope this low comes in around matagorda bay
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