June 2022
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mcheer23 they are pretty conservative, i would be shocked if they dont up the development odds at the 2 pm outlook
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Yes that's the area that will slowly move west over the next couple of days.TexasBreeze wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 11:17 amIs that the area to watch? I noticed that a bit ago there
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It definitely appears a broad circulation is attempting to form like Don said, interesting days ahead
- captainbarbossa19
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They have the other wave east of 94L with identical chances over 5 days even though it has less model support. Real-time trends show increasing vorticity over the Gulf at 925 and 850mb. Imo, I agree the chances should be higher than 10/20 at this point.
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12Z Euro went back to showing a Tropical Low or Depression.
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So they r going with the euro on this and holding off on Development?
- captainbarbossa19
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I need those totals to shift east a little more. Maybe it can do that and keep everyone else in it too. 1-2 inches is not going to help much. I would like 3-5 so my pond can get back to more normal levels.
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Models will get more support with him trying to develop now, close home brew system
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NHC is being way too conservative, I personally think this should be around a 40% chance to develop
- captainbarbossa19
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I think they may wait till tomorrow morning to raise chances at this rate. Most models start tightening the circulation then. I am noticing steady eastward shifts with the Euro. I think the center will most likely come on shore between Palacios and Galveston.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 2:04 pm NHC is being way too conservative, I personally think this should be around a 40% chance to develop
Well that qpf gives everyone but Beaumont a good chance of rain. Itll be my luck…
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
At least your area benefited from some of the popup storms that blew through the border over the last week. Most of us haven't seen a drop in weeks.
Hopefully this system can halt the desert feedback loop and open the door for a more "normal" rainfall pattern.
- captainbarbossa19
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Yeah that's what I'm really hoping for too. I live a few miles west of djmike and I haven't had nearly as much rain either. It's been rather isolated amounts of heavy rain in the Triangle overall.Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 2:33 pmAt least your area benefited from some of the popup storms that blew through the border over the last week. Most of us haven't seen a drop in weeks.
Hopefully this system can halt the desert feedback loop and open the door for a more "normal" rainfall pattern.
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I got shafted by a storm up here last night, all thunder/lightning but no rain, what a troll haha, I hope this low comes in around matagorda bay