June 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cromagnum
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Inlaws said it came with some pretty big hail, golfball sized in some spots. So that part stinks.
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DoctorMu
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Had a brief shower this morning in CLL. Cells moved SE and faded.

I'll take it, though. This week is going to be a scorcher.
Stratton20
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Very hot the next 7-10 days, dont really see any appreciable rain chances during l that time, however we may need to watch tge western GOM/ caribbean late next weekend for some mischief, 18z GEFS still showing.
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jasons2k
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Time to run the sprinklers. Things about to dry out. Yuck.
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Sun Jun 05, 2022 9:46 am Time to run the sprinklers. Things about to dry out. Yuck.
I ran ours full blast last night. Nuthin' but 100s and high DPs on the NOAA forecast. The Big Suck.

Really did enjoy the weather in Minn, Iowa, and Arkansas...everyone was outside.
Cpv17
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This will be the hottest week of the year coming up with temps every day in the mid to upper 90’s across most of the area but on the other end of this heatwave we may end up getting some tropical moisture.
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captainbarbossa19
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It will be hot for the next several days, but we need to watch closely on Saturday the setup. The ridge retreats slightly to the west to allow a possible sneak attack of storms from the east. These storms will likely be very intense if they make it, as they will be arriving in the evening with lots of heat to work with.
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DoctorMu
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CMC brings in a tropical system and rain around the 15/16th of the month.

We're progged around 100°F and scorching all week.
Last edited by DoctorMu on Mon Jun 06, 2022 3:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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DoctorMu
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We're hotter than Waco currently. I've got to water and feed the trees this evening.

Death Ridge engaged. We're in better shape right now than 2011, but not sure west of I-35 is.

FXUS64 KHGX 061738
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1238 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions will prevail for most sites through the next 24
hours. Our northernmost sites (CLL and UTS) could see a few hours
of MVFR from 09-14Z, but that will scatter and lift out by mid
morning tomorrow. Otherwise, we can expect breezy southerly winds
this afternoon and through tomorrow. With high pressure building
in overhead, rain is not expected for the near future.

Lenninger

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 630 AM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022/...

.SHORT TERM [Through Tuesday Night]...

Still expecting a rising temperature and heat index trend to start
out the new week with a persistent onshore flow across our area and
a building mid/upper level ridge across the state. Today`s and
Tuesday`s high temperatures will likely be the coolest of the week
with readings expected to work their way into the mid to upper 90s
inland and to around 90 at the coast. Lows will struggle to fall
below the low to mid 70s inland and below the low 80s at the coast.
Expect some late night through early morning cloud development, but
skies should become mostly sunny during the day. Heat index values
both days should peak in a 100-106 range, and all safety precautions
should be taken. Heat Advisories will be possible.

42

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...

The heat and humidity will continue through next weekend as a
strong upper level ridge remains over Texas. High temperatures
will be at least in the mid to upper 90s for the entire long term
with triple digit hit possible Friday and Saturday. Southerly flow
at the surface will pump mid to upper 70s dew points into
southeast Texas resulting in heat indices in the 105 to 108
degrees. Heat Advisories may eventually be needed by Wednesday
through the weekend.

Heat deaths are preventable: stay hydrated, take breaks in the
shade/AC, and NEVER leave a child/pet/person in a vehicle. And
with schools entering summer break, you may be thinking of
bringing the kids to the beach for some heat relief. There will
be a high risk of rip currents with onshore flow through the week,
so make sure to swim near a life guard. If caught in a rip
current, yell to get the attention of someone then swim parallel
to the shore until you are out of the rip then swim to shore.

With the high pressure overhead, expect little to no chance of
rain through the week. A weak boundary may approach the region
from the north this weekend bringing some showers or thunderstorms,
but limited precipitation to a slight chance as the boundary may
wash out before reaching the area.

Fowler

.MARINE...

Moderate onshore flow will persist through the week of 15 to 20kts
resulting in the need for small craft to exercise caution. Wave
heights will be between 4 and 6 feet through the week as well.
There is a chance for Small Craft Advisories Tuesday night as wind
gusts go to 25kts. The onshore flow will lead to a high risk of
rip currents this week.

Fowler


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 76 99 75 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 77 95 76 97 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 83 91 82 90 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
Stratton20
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The June ECCWF forecast came out and man do i really hope it is wrong, it is calling for 19 named storms and 11 hurricanes, with a predicted ACE of 225😨😳😳😳 I dont know what the average ACE is but I know that is well above normal,
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captainbarbossa19
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon Jun 06, 2022 4:01 pm The June ECCWF forecast came out and man do i really hope it is wrong, it is calling for 19 named storms and 11 hurricanes, with a predicted ACE of 225😨😳😳😳 I dont know what the average ACE is but I know that is well above normal,
We might not see anything if the ridge becomes semi-permanent over Texas this summer. However, I am not counting on that and it only takes one slight shift for something to threaten us.
Stratton20
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Captainbarbossa19 yep, but just seeing an output like that definitely raises a huge eyebrow , could be similar to 2017
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captainbarbossa19
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon Jun 06, 2022 4:33 pm Captainbarbossa19 yep, but just seeing an output like that definitely raises a huge eyebrow , could be similar to 2017
I agree. I think this season certainly has the potential to be like 2017. I thought it was strange that CSU does not have 2017 as an analog year. There are a lot of similarities.
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DoctorMu
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The forecast and heat get worse every time I look at it. :roll: Praying for a seabreeze next week.
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jasons2k
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DoctorMu wrote: Mon Jun 06, 2022 8:28 pm The forecast and heat get worse every time I look at it. :roll: Praying for a seabreeze next week.
Yep. We really need rain.
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captainbarbossa19
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Saw something interesting from NWS Austin/San Antonio. They listed their top 10 driest years from January 1st until June 5th and guess which years made the list? Four of the 10 featured tropical cyclones striking the Texas coast: 1909, 1961, 1971, and 2008.
Cromagnum
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Dripping sweat just getting in my car this morning. I hate this time of year.
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tireman4
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0
FXUS64 KHGX 071734
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1234 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions will prevail through most of the TAF period. Wind
gusts will subside after sunset, but a BKN cumulus cloud layer
from 2000-3000ft should fill in again for most TAF sites during
the early morning hours on Wednesday. Model guidance has not been
picking up on this daily cumulus cloud deck that forms in the
morning, so out of precaution and since we are relatively under
the same weather pattern tomorrow, I went ahead and included those
MVFR ceilings tomorrow morning. This layer will scatter out by
15-16Z, and VFR conditions will prevail afterwards.

Lenninger

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 656 AM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022/...

.SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday Night]...

The early June Southeast Texas heat is not going away anytime soon.
In fact (and as advertised for a while now), it is only going to get
hotter. With mid level ridging in place, persistent low level
onshore winds and mostly sunny skies in the afternoons, expect to
see steadily warmer temperatures over the next two days (an isolated
shower or two cannot be totally ruled out, but chances are too close
to zero to mention in the forecast). High temperatures both days
will be close to a mid to upper 90 range inland (maybe right around
100 at a spot or two) and closer to the lower 90s across much of the
coastal counties and near the beaches. Low temperatures will likely
not fall below the mid to upper 70s inland and in the lower 80s
along the beaches. Both highs and lows will be flirting with
records.

With heat index values expected to generally be in a 100-107 range,
will hold off on the Heat Advisory for this period. It these numbers
edge just a little bit higher, an advisory will be needed. All heat
safety precautions should continue to be taken in this increasingly
dangerous situation.

42

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...

Dangerous heat is expected to develop by the end of the work week
and into the weekend as high temperatures reach to near 100
degrees and heat indicies climb to 105 to 110 degrees. Expect Heat
Advisories to be issued by the end of the week.

This dangerous heat is driven be a strong ridge of high pressure
centered over Texas combined with southerly flow at the surface
pumping high dew points into SE Texas. NAEFS continues to show 90
to 99th percentile 850mb temperatures across most of east Texas
through at least the weekend. The weak boundary that global models
were hinting at the past couple of days making its way down to our
region this weekend now show the boundary stalling/washing out
north of our area. With no real driving force to bring this
boundary south, I have now taken the PoPs out of this weekend -
meaning there isn`t any significant chance of rain in the next 7
days. Maybe things change with this weekend`s boundary, but even
if it did make it to our region, don`t really see it producing
more than a stray shower or thunderstorm.

Please do not underestimate the heat. It is still early in the
summer season, so our bodies have not become acclimated to the
heat. Take the necessary precautions of staying hydrated, limiting
strenuous activity outside, take frequent breaks in the shade/AC,
and NEVER leave children/pets/people in turned off vehicles. If
heading to the beach this week to escape the heat, make sure to
swim near a life guard as onshore flow will lead to a high risk of
rip currents.

Fowler

.MARINE...

Moderate onshore flow will persist through this afternoon or
evening. Small craft advisories continue for Matagorda Bay and
the coastal waters off of Matagorda due to southerly winds of 20
to 25kts bringing seas up to 5 to 6 feet. The winds and seas are a
bit lower for Galveston Bay and the waters off of Galveston, but
small craft should still continue to exercise caution. Conditions
will fall below advisory levels this evening or Wednesday morning,
but onshore flow will climb to 15 to 20kts nightly through the
week so occasional caution flags may be needed. The onshore flow
will bring a high risk of rip currents through the week as well.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 76 99 76 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 77 97 77 98 77 / 0 0 0 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 83 92 82 90 81 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 PM CDT this evening
for the following zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria
Islands...Galveston Island...Matagorda Islands.

High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for the
following zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria
Islands...Galveston Island...Matagorda Islands.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 PM CDT this evening
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston
Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$
Stratton20
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Lol dont look at the 12z GFS😆😆 I think it got into the whisky cabinet lmao
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jasons2k
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Cromagnum wrote: Tue Jun 07, 2022 8:03 am Dripping sweat just getting in my car this morning. I hate this time of year.
The run this morning was a hot one for sure. It could be worse though. It could be freezing :D :D :D

Two more meetings and then pool break!
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