June 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
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DoctorMu Agreed, 18z GFS goes absolutely crazy with the wave after it gets into the eastern caribbean , definitely one to watch, and definitely not a good sign on what may come down the road in the tropics
Cpv17
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We now have invest 94L out in the MDR.
walsean1
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:23 pm DoctorMu Agreed, 18z GFS goes absolutely crazy with the wave after it gets into the eastern caribbean , definitely one to watch, and definitely not a good sign on what may come down the road in the tropics
As hot as the gulf waters are, it only take 1 strong landfall Hurricane to make it a bad year
Stratton20
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00z ICON still develops a weak tropical storm next week FWIW, makes landfall around galveston
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don
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The 0Z GFS also tries to spin up the system before it moves inland.
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Screenshot 2022-06-23 at 23-19-28 Models GFS — Pivotal Weather.png
Stratton20
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Don yup and the GFS has a pretty Hefty bullseye of 7-10 inches along the coast from this run, will definitely have to watch and see if any development occurs as that could easily lead to rain fall totals going up with a more organized system
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captainbarbossa19
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 11:49 pm Don yup and the GFS has a pretty Hefty bullseye of 7-10 inches along the coast from this run, will definitely have to watch and see if any development occurs as that could easily lead to rain fall totals going up with a more organized system
Yep. Watch this be a major rain event because we have been so dry the past few months.
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djmike
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Here we go…. Stay hydrated and stay cool! Help out the elderly or neighbor if needing assistance in this weekend’s extreme heat. Stay safe everyone!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Stratton20
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06z GFS is still really close to closing off a Low FWIW
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don
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HGX mentions the vorticity and surface trough in there discussion this morning.
Weather pattern begins to change Sunday night into the upcoming
week as ridging aloft weakens. In fact, a reinforcing surge of
Gulf moisture will move through the region with PWATs increasing
into the 2.0 to 2.2 inch range by Monday. Additionally, a weak sfc
boundary is progged to move through Southeast TX while some mid-
level vort maxes ride the southeastern edge of the upper-level
ridge. Sufficient forcing aloft, deep convergence and moisture
will result in showers and thunderstorms ahead and along the
boundary. It won`t be a complete washout, but at least, a relief
from the heat. The aforementioned front retreats and becomes
quasi-stationary over the Gulf waters after Tuesday. With abundant
moisture and low-level convergence this will be the main focus
for rain/storm chances through most of the week. Have kept 20 to
45 of PoPs through the week with highest chances Monday and
Tuesday.
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don
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I guess its time to start watching the gulf more seriously this upcoming week.12Z GFS now shows TC genesis with the surface low or MCV that tracks off the Louisiana coast.Develops a Tropical Depression or Tropical storm off the upper Texas coast makes landfall around Freeport Wednesday morning....Now agreeing with the ICON which has the TC making landfall further east in Louisiana near the sabine while the GFS is further west.
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Screenshot 2022-06-24 at 11-09-07 Models GFS — Pivotal Weather.png
Screenshot 2022-06-24 at 11-09-59 Models GFS — Pivotal Weather.png
Screenshot 2022-06-24 at 11-11-25 Models GFS — Pivotal Weather.png
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don
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Beautiful qpf map.
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Screenshot 2022-06-24 at 11-26-46 Models GFS — Pivotal Weather.png
Stratton20
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Don the latest 12z CMC also develops a weak tropical storm, further south but kind of just meanders near the coast
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don
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Here we go... The 12Z CMC is now onboard also with TC genesis Shows a tropical depression making landfall around Matagorda .So we now have the GFS,ICON,and CMC all showing tropical development,lets see what the EURO shows.
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Screenshot 2022-06-24 at 11-53-34 Models GDPS — Pivotal Weather.png
Screenshot 2022-06-24 at 11-55-31 Models GDPS — Pivotal Weather.png
Last edited by don on Fri Jun 24, 2022 12:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
davidiowx
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don wrote: Fri Jun 24, 2022 11:50 amBeautiful qpf map.
Yes, yes it is!
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captainbarbossa19
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don wrote: Fri Jun 24, 2022 12:15 pm Here we go... The 12Z CMC is now onboard also with TC genesis Shows a tropical depression making landfall around Matagorda .So we now have the GFS,ICON,and CMC all showing tropical development,lets see what the EURO shows.
Depending on how long this is over water, I would not be surprised if we get a weak TS out of this.
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captainbarbossa19
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GEFS is showing increased support for something to form near us too.
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don
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Has Dr. Levi Cowans attention...
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don
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12Z EURO isn't onboard yet for TC development.The 12Z UKMET is onboard though with a depression going towards south Texas.The EURO is the outlier for now.While saying that i will like to see more model runs today and over the weekend before fully buying of course.Now we wait for the 18Z ICON and GFS. ;)
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Screenshot 2022-06-24 at 13-37-13 Models UKMET — Pivotal Weather.png
Stratton20
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Don typically the Euro model is usually the last to jump on board given its conservative history if im correct, but if this catched Levi Cowans attention then it definitely is something to watch, Levi’s tropical update posts and videos are so good
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