June 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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captainbarbossa19
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Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 06, 2022 4:01 pm The June ECCWF forecast came out and man do i really hope it is wrong, it is calling for 19 named storms and 11 hurricanes, with a predicted ACE of 225😨😳😳😳 I dont know what the average ACE is but I know that is well above normal,
We might not see anything if the ridge becomes semi-permanent over Texas this summer. However, I am not counting on that and it only takes one slight shift for something to threaten us.
Stratton20
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Captainbarbossa19 yep, but just seeing an output like that definitely raises a huge eyebrow , could be similar to 2017
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captainbarbossa19
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Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 06, 2022 4:33 pm Captainbarbossa19 yep, but just seeing an output like that definitely raises a huge eyebrow , could be similar to 2017
I agree. I think this season certainly has the potential to be like 2017. I thought it was strange that CSU does not have 2017 as an analog year. There are a lot of similarities.
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DoctorMu
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The forecast and heat get worse every time I look at it. :roll: Praying for a seabreeze next week.
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jasons2k
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DoctorMu wrote: ↑Mon Jun 06, 2022 8:28 pm The forecast and heat get worse every time I look at it. :roll: Praying for a seabreeze next week.
Yep. We really need rain.
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captainbarbossa19
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Saw something interesting from NWS Austin/San Antonio. They listed their top 10 driest years from January 1st until June 5th and guess which years made the list? Four of the 10 featured tropical cyclones striking the Texas coast: 1909, 1961, 1971, and 2008.
Cromagnum
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Dripping sweat just getting in my car this morning. I hate this time of year.
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tireman4
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0
FXUS64 KHGX 071734
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1234 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions will prevail through most of the TAF period. Wind
gusts will subside after sunset, but a BKN cumulus cloud layer
from 2000-3000ft should fill in again for most TAF sites during
the early morning hours on Wednesday. Model guidance has not been
picking up on this daily cumulus cloud deck that forms in the
morning, so out of precaution and since we are relatively under
the same weather pattern tomorrow, I went ahead and included those
MVFR ceilings tomorrow morning. This layer will scatter out by
15-16Z, and VFR conditions will prevail afterwards.

Lenninger

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 656 AM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022/...

.SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday Night]...

The early June Southeast Texas heat is not going away anytime soon.
In fact (and as advertised for a while now), it is only going to get
hotter. With mid level ridging in place, persistent low level
onshore winds and mostly sunny skies in the afternoons, expect to
see steadily warmer temperatures over the next two days (an isolated
shower or two cannot be totally ruled out, but chances are too close
to zero to mention in the forecast). High temperatures both days
will be close to a mid to upper 90 range inland (maybe right around
100 at a spot or two) and closer to the lower 90s across much of the
coastal counties and near the beaches. Low temperatures will likely
not fall below the mid to upper 70s inland and in the lower 80s
along the beaches. Both highs and lows will be flirting with
records.

With heat index values expected to generally be in a 100-107 range,
will hold off on the Heat Advisory for this period. It these numbers
edge just a little bit higher, an advisory will be needed. All heat
safety precautions should continue to be taken in this increasingly
dangerous situation.

42

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...

Dangerous heat is expected to develop by the end of the work week
and into the weekend as high temperatures reach to near 100
degrees and heat indicies climb to 105 to 110 degrees. Expect Heat
Advisories to be issued by the end of the week.

This dangerous heat is driven be a strong ridge of high pressure
centered over Texas combined with southerly flow at the surface
pumping high dew points into SE Texas. NAEFS continues to show 90
to 99th percentile 850mb temperatures across most of east Texas
through at least the weekend. The weak boundary that global models
were hinting at the past couple of days making its way down to our
region this weekend now show the boundary stalling/washing out
north of our area. With no real driving force to bring this
boundary south, I have now taken the PoPs out of this weekend -
meaning there isn`t any significant chance of rain in the next 7
days. Maybe things change with this weekend`s boundary, but even
if it did make it to our region, don`t really see it producing
more than a stray shower or thunderstorm.

Please do not underestimate the heat. It is still early in the
summer season, so our bodies have not become acclimated to the
heat. Take the necessary precautions of staying hydrated, limiting
strenuous activity outside, take frequent breaks in the shade/AC,
and NEVER leave children/pets/people in turned off vehicles. If
heading to the beach this week to escape the heat, make sure to
swim near a life guard as onshore flow will lead to a high risk of
rip currents.

Fowler

.MARINE...

Moderate onshore flow will persist through this afternoon or
evening. Small craft advisories continue for Matagorda Bay and
the coastal waters off of Matagorda due to southerly winds of 20
to 25kts bringing seas up to 5 to 6 feet. The winds and seas are a
bit lower for Galveston Bay and the waters off of Galveston, but
small craft should still continue to exercise caution. Conditions
will fall below advisory levels this evening or Wednesday morning,
but onshore flow will climb to 15 to 20kts nightly through the
week so occasional caution flags may be needed. The onshore flow
will bring a high risk of rip currents through the week as well.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 76 99 76 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 77 97 77 98 77 / 0 0 0 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 83 92 82 90 81 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 PM CDT this evening
for the following zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria
Islands...Galveston Island...Matagorda Islands.

High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for the
following zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria
Islands...Galveston Island...Matagorda Islands.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 PM CDT this evening
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston
Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$
Stratton20
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Lol dont look at the 12z GFSπŸ˜†πŸ˜† I think it got into the whisky cabinet lmao
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jasons2k
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Cromagnum wrote: ↑Tue Jun 07, 2022 8:03 am Dripping sweat just getting in my car this morning. I hate this time of year.
The run this morning was a hot one for sure. It could be worse though. It could be freezing :D :D :D

Two more meetings and then pool break!
Cromagnum
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And now for our 15 days out GFS Scareicane.

Image
Stratton20
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Cromagnum lol that run is all over facebook now, and here comes the widespread panic, the gfs scaricane strikes again! πŸ€¦β€β™‚οΈπŸ˜†
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captainbarbossa19
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Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 07, 2022 2:46 pm Cromagnum lol that run is all over facebook now, and here comes the widespread panic, the gfs scaricane strikes again! πŸ€¦β€β™‚οΈπŸ˜†
The worst part is when so-called experts start posting this garbage. Everyone thinks panic is the best way to get more views, and unfortunately, that is not incorrect.
Stratton20
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captainbarbossa19 exactly its really pathetic, I just had to make a post about it on my facebook account so that my friends/family dont get spooked over it
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jasons2k
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Hot today for sure!!
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Stratton20
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Interesting read from Travis Herzog, already a moderate confidence zone issued by NOAA for next week, that is really surprising at least to me
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tireman4
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Meanwhile, current synopsis...

000
FXUS64 KHGX 081133
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
633 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2022

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

A mix of MVFR and VFR cigs are present among latest observations,
though conditions should generally be on an improving trend over
the next several hours with VFR conditions expected to prevail
from mid-morning through the remainder of the day. South to
southwest winds will increase to 10-15 knots during the afternoon,
with gusts reaching as high as 20 knots. Winds relax overnight
as MVFR cigs appear likely to redevelop once again.

Cady

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 336 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2022/...

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Thursday Night]...

Synoptic pattern remains generally unchanged as we continue through
the week, with robust mid/upper ridging remaining the dominant
feature over the South Central CONUS while at the surface a broad
area of high pressure remains in place over the Eastern Gulf. This
persistent pattern will result in continued hot and humid conditions
through the remainder of the week, with heat at times reaching near
dangerous levels during the afternoon hours. Have continued to side
with the upper quartile of national blend distribution for high
temperatures in this forecast as in recent packages, with most
locations around and north of the I-10 corridor reaching the upper
90s to near 100 this afternoon. Locations closer to the coast will
see highs in the lower/mid 90s, while overnight lows in the upper
70s to low 80s will be commonplace area-wide. Much of the same for
Thursday with most locations again reaching the upper 90s, while
some locations across the northwestern zones may break the 100 mark.

With moderate onshore winds continuing to provide ample low-level
moisture to the area as dew points generally remain in the 70s,
dangerous heat index values in the 100-107 range are expected during
the afternoon hours today and Thursday. While this is below our
typical threshold for the issuance of a Heat Advisory of 108,
protective actions from heat must such as remaining hydrated and
avoiding strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day must
nonetheless be taken. Other heat stress metrics, such as the Wet
Bulb Globe Temperature, indicate that apparent temperature values
during this time will be well above our normal values for early
June. Given this, those with outdoor plans in the coming day should
pay close attention to current conditions and continue to keep heat
safety in mind.

Cady


.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday Night]...

At least several more days of hot (possibly record breaking temperatures)
and humid weather can be expected at the end of the week and on through
the weekend with strong ridging aloft and a persistent onshore flow
remaining in place. Nearly all guidance available points toward a large
portion of inland locations having high temperatures in an upper 90s
to 104 degree range. Afternoon heat index values will approach and exceed
108 degrees, so a Heat Advisory will be needed. Any relief from the
heat (cold front) looks to remain well to our north over the weekend,
and any potential shower development coming off the Gulf (chances too
low to carry in the forecast) will be too small and too short-lived
to help cool locations down. With no significant changes in the weather
pattern expected into the first half of next week, there will be little
to no heat relief for our area.

It must be emphasized once again to make sure all safety precautions
are taken during this heat event, even if there is no Heat Advisory
in effect. Never leave children or pets unattended in vehicles as
interior temperatures can reach lethal levels in just a matter of
minutes.

42


.MARINE...

Early morning surface observations around both Galveston Bay and
Matagorda Bay as well as offshore buoys are showing winds generally
around 15 to 20 knots with a couple spots above 20 knots. These speeds
should come down as the day progresses, but we will need to carry Caution
flags for all waters through the morning hours. Light to occasionally
south to southeast winds through the end of the week and south to southwest
winds over the weekend can be expected. Caution conditions will be possible
at times. A high risk of rip currents remains in effect along all Gulf-
facing beaches and could continue through the end of the work week.

42


.CLIMATE...

For the second consecutive day, Galveston recorded a low temperature
of 83 degrees. The 83 on Monday broke the old record of 81 set in 2020.
The 83 on Tuesday broke the old record of 82 in 1994.

Galveston`s average temperature for the first week of the month of 85.6
degrees is 3.1 degrees above normal and ranks as the warmest first
week of June on record (second place is 85.4 degrees set in 2008).
Galveston`s records date back to 1874.

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 98 77 99 76 103 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 97 78 98 77 100 / 0 10 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 91 83 92 82 91 / 10 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until noon CDT today for the
following zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria
Islands...Galveston Island...Matagorda Islands.

High Rip Current Risk through this evening for the following
zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...Galveston
Island...Matagorda Islands.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until noon CDT today for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$
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DoctorMu
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captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 07, 2022 2:56 pm
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 07, 2022 2:46 pm Cromagnum lol that run is all over facebook now, and here comes the widespread panic, the gfs scaricane strikes again! πŸ€¦β€β™‚οΈπŸ˜†
The worst part is when so-called experts start posting this garbage. Everyone thinks panic is the best way to get more views, and unfortunately, that is not incorrect.
It's easy to be imaginative 354 hours out. :lol:
Stratton20
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DoctorMu beyond 10 days we should just call the GFS the Global Funky SystemπŸ˜†πŸ˜†
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captainbarbossa19
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DoctorMu wrote: ↑Wed Jun 08, 2022 12:05 pm
captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 07, 2022 2:56 pm
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 07, 2022 2:46 pm Cromagnum lol that run is all over facebook now, and here comes the widespread panic, the gfs scaricane strikes again! πŸ€¦β€β™‚οΈπŸ˜†
The worst part is when so-called experts start posting this garbage. Everyone thinks panic is the best way to get more views, and unfortunately, that is not incorrect.
It's easy to be imaginative 354 hours out. :lol:
It is, but many freak out when they see model runs like that because they do not understand the low chances of something verifying that far out.
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