June 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cromagnum
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Re: June 2022

Post by Cromagnum » Thu Jun 23, 2022 10:51 am

That Icon run looks wonderful. Brazoria County would love that.

Stratton20
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Re: June 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 11:15 am

12z CMC also gets very close to closing off a low but is further south with the low and tracks into south texas

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DoctorMu
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Re: June 2022

Post by DoctorMu » Thu Jun 23, 2022 11:36 am

Ridging weakens across the models beginning Monday or moves south. Hopefully, that means a more SE-like 20-30% chance of rain every day. We'll see.

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captainbarbossa19
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Re: June 2022

Post by captainbarbossa19 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 12:44 pm

It will be interesting what the Euro shows. There is definitely increasing model support for an area of low pressure.

Stratton20
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Re: June 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 1:05 pm

12z Euro has a slightly stronger low compared to its 00z run, models are not far from developing this into a weak system

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captainbarbossa19
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Re: June 2022

Post by captainbarbossa19 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 2:28 pm

Aside from the low next week, we will probably need to keep an eye on the system expected to develop in the Caribbean. Ensembles show wide variation on the course of the potential storm. Some show it moving NW towards the Gulf eventually.

Cpv17
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Re: June 2022

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 2:36 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Thu Jun 23, 2022 2:28 pm
Aside from the low next week, we will probably need to keep an eye on the system expected to develop in the Caribbean. Ensembles show wide variation on the course of the potential storm. Some show it moving NW towards the Gulf eventually.
I think the most likely outcome right now would be for it to just crash into CA unless it really starts to strengthen and the ridge backs off a bit. It’ll be interesting to watch for sure.

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captainbarbossa19
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Re: June 2022

Post by captainbarbossa19 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 2:52 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Thu Jun 23, 2022 2:36 pm
captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Thu Jun 23, 2022 2:28 pm
Aside from the low next week, we will probably need to keep an eye on the system expected to develop in the Caribbean. Ensembles show wide variation on the course of the potential storm. Some show it moving NW towards the Gulf eventually.
I think the most likely outcome right now would be for it to just crash into CA unless it really starts to strengthen and the ridge backs off a bit. It’ll be interesting to watch for sure.
Yeah that is more likely simply due to climatology, but EPS shows quite a few members tracking into the Gulf.

Stratton20
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Re: June 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:51 pm

While chances are fairly low, FWIW the 12z EPS guidance does have a 30% chance of a depression forming off the Texas coast next week, we will see
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DoctorMu
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Re: June 2022

Post by DoctorMu » Thu Jun 23, 2022 5:20 pm

Stratton20 wrote:
Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:51 pm
While chances are fairly low, FWIW the 12z EPS guidance does have a 30% chance of a depression forming off the Texas coast next week, we will see
That's a surprisingly high probability in the eastern Caribbean for this time of year.

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