June 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
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While I believe most of us will get beneficial rains out of this, we just have to monitor the flood threat carefully, as with any tropical system the rain rates could be high, and a more organized Low could definitely increase those further, not saying we will see flooding, but considering whatever may form doesn’t appear like it will be moving that fast, definitely could see some flooding problems, I hope we dont but we have seen time after time these weak tropical systems are notorious for creating flood problems here in Se Texas
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djmike
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Cpv17 wrote: Sat Jun 25, 2022 10:42 am
djmike wrote: Sat Jun 25, 2022 10:26 am If models keep showing the Low any further into south texas we wont see much in our neck of the woods from it. Showers from and decaying front then thats it! My opinion if this comes in around Freeport to Sabine Pass we should get beneficial showers. Anything below a Freeport landfall, HOU/BMT wont see much of anything. IMO. Hopefully models trend back up the coast. Again, a weak tropical system, bring it! Anything more can go away!
Actually, that’s kinda false. Depending on the size of the system and how much it’s sheared, southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana can see rain from a system that tracks into deep south Texas. The sweet spot for southeast Texas would be anywhere from Port O’Connor to Sargent. If any tc comes ashore in between those areas there’s a really good chance everyone in southeast TX will see some good rains. The north and east side of the system 9 times outta 10 is where all the action is at.
True true. I didn’t factor in the potential of a sheared system. Is there any indications of shear during that time? I do remember harvey well below Hou and us getting hammered.
Mike
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(IH-10 & College Street)
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don
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12Z ICON with landfall around Matagorda.
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don
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12Z GFS is weaker than the 6Z run with the system, it keeps it as a tropical low into Corpus.
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Katdaddy
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Hoping we get some well needed rainfall and nothing more but we shall see.
Stratton20
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I hope that ICON solution is right, that would be a good soaker, that GFS run is rather unimpressive with rainfall totals, will need to watch the mesoscale models as its getting almost into their range, i suspect NHC will increase odds of development at their 2pm update
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Sat Jun 25, 2022 12:18 pm I hope that ICON solution is right, that would be a good soaker, that GFS run is rather unimpressive with rainfall totals, will need to watch the mesoscale models as its getting almost into their range, i suspect NHC will increase odds of development at their 2pm update
Yeah but the 6z GFS was beautiful lol
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captainbarbossa19
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Cpv17 wrote: Sat Jun 25, 2022 12:35 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Sat Jun 25, 2022 12:18 pm I hope that ICON solution is right, that would be a good soaker, that GFS run is rather unimpressive with rainfall totals, will need to watch the mesoscale models as its getting almost into their range, i suspect NHC will increase odds of development at their 2pm update
Yeah but the 6z GFS was beautiful lol
I'm hoping the 12z Euro comes on board, but it may not even if something was actually developing knowing its history.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 Honestly though the whole of SE Texas could probably use a good 4-6 inches of rain( spread out of course) to put a good dent in this drought, will be important to watch the mesoscale models over the next few days as they usually do pretty decent with rain fall totals
Cpv17
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captainbarbossa19 wrote: Sat Jun 25, 2022 12:36 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Sat Jun 25, 2022 12:35 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Sat Jun 25, 2022 12:18 pm I hope that ICON solution is right, that would be a good soaker, that GFS run is rather unimpressive with rainfall totals, will need to watch the mesoscale models as its getting almost into their range, i suspect NHC will increase odds of development at their 2pm update
Yeah but the 6z GFS was beautiful lol
I'm hoping the 12z Euro comes on board, but it may not even if something was actually developing knowing its history.
If the Euro jumps onboard then you’ll start seeing a lot more people talk about it.
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