June 2022

[Stratton20]

Don this is a bit confusing from the 8 pm NHC update but they already have the disturbance in the gulf I think, definitely weird

[DoctorMu]

Don this is a bit confusing from the 8 pm NHC update but they already have the disturbance in the gulf I think, definitely weird

They've been following the blob that was in FL yesterday. That disturbance is off Mobile now.

[DoctorMu]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 252343 CCA
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
643 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022

.AVIATION [00Z TAF ISSUANCE]...
VFR conditions prevail across all terminals this evening. Winds
will become light and variable overnight. There is a chance of
patchy fog developing during the pre-dawn hours around LBX and
could result in periods of MVFR to possible IFR conditions. Winds
on Sunday morning are expected to remain light. By the afternoon,
winds will turn E to ESE over much of the region. Slight chance
of iso SH/TS during afternoon and evening hours.

Self/24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022/

SHORT TERM [Through Sunday Night]...

Continued hot & mostly dry wx into Sunday. Good news is that it
should be last day of 100 degree temps for a while since we`ll begin
seeing a gradual pattern modification late Sunday afternoon into
early next week.

Look for a fairly quick climb in temperature Sunday morning as we
start out with plenty of sun and a sw/w llvl flow. Heading into
Sunday afternoon, expect moisture levels to gradually increase from
the east and some upper level disturbances moving wwd under the
ridge to begin trekking closer to the area. We should see a little
more cloud cover along with some isolated shra/tstm development
across parts of the region Sunday afternoon.

Sunday night, we`ll have a weak frontal boundary sagging into the
area from the north. Combination of this feature along with the mid-
upper disturbances and higher moisture described above should allow
for precip chances to further increase across parts of the CWA... 47

LONG TERM [Monday Through Saturday]...

Some long-awaited relief from the unseasonably hot and dry
conditions of the past several weeks is expected during the early
part of next week. The prevailing upper ridge will gradually begin
to retrograde as a weak surface cold front associated with a low
over the Great Lakes moves into SE TX. While the temperature
change associated with this passing boundary will be marginal
(highs in the low/mid 90s on Monday and around 90 on Tuesday),
the boundary as well as midlevel shortwave energy associated with
an approaching easterly wave should be sufficient to allow for the
development of more widespread showers and storms during this
time.

While a lot of uncertainty remains present regarding the
development of our next system, global models continue to
indicate the possible development of a weak surface low associated
with the aforementioned easterly wave over our offshore waters on
Tuesday. As this feature tracks to the west/northwest on Tuesday
and Wednesday while the frontal boundary remains stalled near the
coast, additional showers and storms are expected to develop
across the region. Have kept PoP values in the 30-50% given the
uncertainty in track/evolution of the surface low, but this
certainly represents our best shot at steady rain in quite some
time and may provide some much needed drought relief. Overall
thinking remains that rainfall amounts through Thursday are
expected to be highest near the coast, with our southernmost zones
picking up around 2-3" while areas across the Houston metro
receive around 1" and the northern zones receiving around 0.5-1".
Additional diurnally driven showers and storms will be possible
through the end of the week following the departure of the surface
low, potentially bringing some additional rainfall to the area.

Temperatures remain closer to seasonal norms from mid-week towards
next weekend, with highs in the low to mid 90s and overnight lows
in the mid/upper 70s inland and near 80 along the coast as we
approach next weekend.

Cady

AVIATION [18Z TAF Update]...

Other than the potential for some spotty late night & early
morning fog west of I-45, VFR conditions will prevail through the
period. 47

MARINE...

Light to moderate onshore winds are expected to continue through
the remainder of the weekend, with wind speeds remaining below
caution criteria during this time. On Monday, a weak surface cold
front will approach the coast, resulting in a shift to northeast
winds and increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. As a
weak upper-level disturbances approaches from the east on Tuesday,
a surface low is expected to develop offshore and push westward.
As a result, elevated winds and seas and additional shower and
storm chances are possible through mid-week as the system moves
inland.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 101 76 94 74 / 0 20 30 50 40
Houston (IAH) 77 100 78 94 76 / 0 20 30 60 50
Galveston (GLS) 84 94 82 92 80 / 0 10 30 50 50

[don]

Don this is a bit confusing from the 8 pm NHC update but they already have the disturbance in the gulf I think, definitely weird

That area is another area of low pressure in the eastern gulf models kinda have that low merging with the piece of energy that moves off the coast of Louisiana on Monday and consolidating into one single area of low pressure.So it makes since that they would have it marked. But the real catalyst will be the energy that moves offshore with the frontal boundary. I think one of the reasons why the EURO doesn't show development is because it never consolidates those two areas of vorticity until the system is right at the coast.

[Stratton20]

It appears that models are starting to pick up on the energy or area that the NHC put an X on as the dominate feature that may try to develop, on the ICON and CMC both start to close off the trough thats currently just off shore of florida and both propagate it west, the ICON is really weird as it tries to for
two systems in the gulf, weird run for sure

[don]

Looks like the EURO may be getting onboard? Gets close to developing the system before landfall near Port Aransas.

[don]

Good discussion from HGX this morning that's talks about the uncertainties of next week's forecast.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday through Saturday Night]...

By Tuesday morning, showers and storms will be ongoing across
portions of the region. A sfc trough/quasi-stationary front
stretching from the TX coast into the northern/eastern Gulf will act
as the focus area for moisture and warm air being advected into the
region. Deterministic guidance is in better agreement in terms of
phase/timing with this sfc trough, bringing an increase in
showers/storm activity Tuesday and Wednesday. However, there are
still some discrepancies in strength and evolution of this system.
The GFS and NAM continue to be the most aggressive solutions,
suggesting a closed sfc low along the coastal waters and into the
Matagorda/Victoria Crossroads areas. The ECMWF suggests a slightly
weaker, broad and less organized solution. Given model differences,
uncertainty/confidence in the forecast remains high/low. However,
confidence in having periods of moderate to heavy rain over the
Upper TX coast is increasing given a persistent influx of WAA and
Gulf moisture thanks to the stalled front. Precipitable waters over
the coastal zones and coastal waters continue to be near the 90th
percentile of NAEFS and GEFS climatology with values over 2.0
inches. In other words, enough tropical moisture will be in place to
trigger any rain chances over the region. WPC highlights this threat
and suggests a Marginal Risk across portions of Southeast TX in
their Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook. Have weighted the forecast
more towards the NBM and WPC guidance Tuesday and Wednesday to
produce PoPs between 20-65 percent. Highest chances will be along
the coast and coastal waters. The NHC continues to monitor the
western Gulf with a low chance (20 percent) of tropical cyclone
formation in the next 5 days.

If the area of low pressure develops, it will continue to slowly
move west/southwest along the TX coast, then inland by midweek. It
is important to point out that uncertainty in the forecast Wednesday
and beyond is still high as it will depend on the possible formation
of the low and/or the location of the associated quasi-stationary
boundary. Regardless of the final outcome on whether this low will
develop or dissipate along the stalled boundary, have kept
precipitation chances along and south of I-10 through most of the
week.

[jasons2k]

The casa hit 105.3 yesterday according to Acurite. I really hope to see some rain readings this week.

[don]

The 12Z NAM suite of models are all onboard for TC genesis FWIW.

[Cromagnum]

Regarding 94L. I've seen this movie before...

[Cpv17]

What’s interesting to me is that it’s supposed to intensify in the Caribbean. I don’t even remember the last time I saw the Caribbean being a favorable place for tc’s. Usually that’s like a graveyard.

[djmike]

The gulf spinner seems to be a south texas storm. IMO. Hopefully it will traverse close enough to give us some good showers along its way. Just IMO. Haven’t seen any support either on shearing. Of course all can change and has time to do so. All I want is some beneficial showers like the rest of Tx.

[don]

12Z GFS back to developing the system. Has it as a Depression that rides the coast from south Texas to the middle Texas coast as a trough in the northwest starts to pick it up.The 12Z ICON does the same but has the trough a little deeper so the storm moves more northeast towards the Sabine.Basically still uncertainty in strength and track.

[Stratton20]

I wouldnt be surprised to see the NHC nudge up development chances based on todays 12z runs

[captainbarbossa19]

I wouldnt be surprised to see the NHC nudge up development chances based on todays 12z runs

Yeah. I think the odds are a bit higher than 20%. I would think probably 40% now, which may be a little conservative still.

[don]

Since we don't have an invest yet there are no spaghetti model plots. So here's a very rough map of what most models are showing as far as track. Models have the area of low pressure diving southwest as high pressure builds.Then a trough moves from the northwest to the northern plains by mid week that is what starts to pull the storm north.

(SUBJECT TO CHANGE/REMEMBER TO FOLLOW THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR OFFICIAL DATA: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/)

[captainbarbossa19]

Latest GEFS run features a rather large increase of support for development compared to 0z.

[Stratton20]

NHC still no change at 2 pm outlook, still at 20%, being conservative as usual

[Cromagnum]

Who cares, just bring on the gyre and moisture.

[Cpv17]

NHC still no change at 2 pm outlook, still at 20%, being conservative as usual

Shocker lol