June 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
davidiowx
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Just got an alert of an areal flood watch issued but don't see it on the NWS

ETA - NVM it is there now.

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1107 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

TXZ213-214-226-227-236>238-300-313-336>338-436>439-010315-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.A.0003.220630T1607Z-220702T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Inland Harris-Chambers-Wharton-Fort Bend-Inland Matagorda-Inland
Brazoria-Inland Galveston-Southern Liberty-Coastal Harris-Coastal
Matagorda-Coastal Brazoria-Coastal Galveston-Matagorda Islands-
Brazoria Islands-Galveston Island-Bolivar Peninsula-
Including the cities of Pearland, Dickinson, Texas City, Pasadena,
Anahuac, Baytown, Bay City, Surfside Beach, Wharton, Missouri City,
Pecan Grove, Palacios, League City, La Marque, Lake Jackson, Mont
Belvieu, Old River-Winfree, Freeport, First Colony, Clute, Mission
Bend, Stowell, Sugar Land, Galveston, Houston, Alvin, Rosenberg,
Friendswood, Winnie, Devers, El Campo, and Angleton
1107 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
Areas of poor drainage closer to the coast are most at risk,
particularly more urban areas.

* WHERE...A portion of southeast Texas, including the following
areas, Bolivar Peninsula, Brazoria Islands, Chambers, Coastal
Brazoria, Coastal Galveston, Coastal Harris, Coastal Matagorda,
Fort Bend, Galveston Island, Inland Brazoria, Inland Galveston,
Inland Harris, Inland Matagorda, Matagorda Islands, Southern
Liberty and Wharton.

* WHEN...The watch is in effect through Friday evening. The greatest
concern today will be on the immediate coast, expanding across the
rest of the watch area later tonight into Friday.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Flooding is most likely to occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- A poorly organized area of showers and thunderstorms over the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico are beginning to impact the
immediate Southeast Texas coast this morning. This low
pressure area is expected to turn northward and move inland
later today and drag across Southeast Texas through tonight
and Friday. While this area has some potential to become a
short-lived tropical depression today, the main threat of
heavy rainfall will be the same regardless of whether that
happens or not. Drought conditions over the area will
mitigate the threat somewhat, but high rain rates in the
stronger storms and the duration of the event could still
cause flooding issues near the coast in spite of that.
Locations most at risk are urban, low-lying, and other poor
drainage areas.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

SPL
Last edited by davidiowx on Thu Jun 30, 2022 11:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
mcheer23
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Flood Watch issued...... :?:
mcheer23
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Hmm
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Kingwood32
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I'm in angleton and gray skies everywhere but not a single drop..
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djmike
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Been a light to moderate solid rain here in Beaumont since about 630am. Gauge says over 1/2” so far. Looks like the bulk of the rain has shifted towards the east of Houston. You guys are still at play. Main event isn’t supposed to be until early morning Friday.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
cperk
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I just checked the NWS website and we are under a flood warning through Friday.
davidiowx
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cperk wrote: Thu Jun 30, 2022 12:15 pm I just checked the NWS website and we are under a flood warning through Friday.
That would be a Flood Watch, not a Warning. ;)
Cromagnum
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cperk wrote: Thu Jun 30, 2022 12:15 pm I just checked the NWS website and we are under a flood warning through Friday.
Not buying it.
txbear
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meso low south of galveston?

looks like it's going to be high and dry on the west side unless something drastic changes.
davidiowx
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I am guessing the FFW was issued due to the 12z NAM model runs. The WRF and HRRR are not impressive for anyone west of Houston.
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jasons2k
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txbear wrote: Thu Jun 30, 2022 12:25 pm meso low south of galveston?

looks like it's going to be high and dry on the west side unless something drastic changes.
Looking at the radar loops back Texas looks depressing. It’s consolidating SE of most of us. Nauseating.
cperk
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davidiowx wrote: Thu Jun 30, 2022 12:17 pm
cperk wrote: Thu Jun 30, 2022 12:15 pm I just checked the NWS website and we are under a flood warning through Friday.
That would be a Flood Watch, not a Warning. ;)
I stand corrected thanks :)
Cromagnum
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It's infuriating that the last few days all the rain was west of us, and now it's all east of us. Then they hoist a flood watch in the area that hasn't received any rain at all, and by the looks of the radar, still won't.
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don
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Thats a meso low near Galveston...2pm update
1. Western Gulf of Mexico:
Recent satellite and radar imagery indicate that showers and
thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure near the
southern coast of Texas have changed little in organization since
this morning. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly northward
and inland over southeastern Texas later today. Slow development of
this system is possible while the low remains over water and it
could still become a short-lived tropical depression before it moves
inland. Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible along
portions of the Texas coast for the next two days. For more
information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products
issued by your National Weather Service office. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter plane is currently enroute to investigate the
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Stratton20
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What an absolute bust, one of the worst ive seen in a long time, and a heat ridge builds in this weekend, imagine having a near tropical depression just off the texas coast and we cant get any rain from it
Kingwood32
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Sky is starting to clear here in Brazoria County yet we're under a flood watch I don't understand.. Looks like on radar everything is starting to move away from us
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tireman4
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jun 30, 2022 1:32 pm What an absolute bust, one of the worst ive seen in a long time, and a heat ridge builds in this weekend, imagine having a near tropical depression just off the texas coast and we cant get any rain from it


You maybe too young to remember this, but Tropical Storm Don, in 2011, was a complete bust. At least some folks are getting rain. The Death Heat Ridge of High Pressure completely destroyed it as it was making landfall near Corpus. No one got any rain.
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captainbarbossa19
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Kingwood32 wrote: Thu Jun 30, 2022 1:59 pm Sky is starting to clear here in Brazoria County yet we're under a flood watch I don't understand.. Looks like on radar everything is starting to move away from us
Heaviest rain is not expected until tomorrow morning. The flood watch is in effect until tomorrow evening.
Cromagnum
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captainbarbossa19 wrote: Thu Jun 30, 2022 2:24 pm
Kingwood32 wrote: Thu Jun 30, 2022 1:59 pm Sky is starting to clear here in Brazoria County yet we're under a flood watch I don't understand.. Looks like on radar everything is starting to move away from us
Heaviest rain is not expected until tomorrow morning. The flood watch is in effect until tomorrow evening.
Based on what though? The circulation center and all associated rain is very visibly off to the east now.
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captainbarbossa19
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Cromagnum wrote: Thu Jun 30, 2022 2:28 pm
captainbarbossa19 wrote: Thu Jun 30, 2022 2:24 pm
Kingwood32 wrote: Thu Jun 30, 2022 1:59 pm Sky is starting to clear here in Brazoria County yet we're under a flood watch I don't understand.. Looks like on radar everything is starting to move away from us
Heaviest rain is not expected until tomorrow morning. The flood watch is in effect until tomorrow evening.
Based on what though? The circulation center and all associated rain is very visibly off to the east now.
That's just a mesovort. A weak circulation is still located east of Corpus Christi. It will move onshore most likely early tomorrow morning. The current storms east of Houston will likely diminish due to DMIN and then refire towards daybreak. That is why the NWS likely issued a flood watch.
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