June 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:12 pm Cpv17 00z HRRR is not our friend either , focuses the heavier rains toward beaumont and most of SE Texas except for coastal communities get shafted
Yeah that sounds about right.
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jasons2k
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0.00” again
Stormlover2020
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This is how it always is flood maker in southeast texas
weatherguy425
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Cpv17 wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:24 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:12 pm Cpv17 00z HRRR is not our friend either , focuses the heavier rains toward beaumont and most of SE Texas except for coastal communities get shafted
Yeah that sounds about right.
One thing to keep in mind... the remnant LLC will continue to push into Texas in the days post "landfall". It'll also continue to pose a risk of localized heavy rain events. Even if the risk of flooding is greatest along the coast and further east (day of)... the chance of beneficial rain and some heavy rain may linger, expand inland in the days following.
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Rip76
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weatherguy425 wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:39 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:24 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:12 pm Cpv17 00z HRRR is not our friend either , focuses the heavier rains toward beaumont and most of SE Texas except for coastal communities get shafted
Yeah that sounds about right.
One thing to keep in mind... the remnant LLC will continue to push into Texas in the days post "landfall". It'll also continue to pose a risk of localized heavy rain events. Even if the risk of flooding is greatest along the coast and further east (day of)... the chance of beneficial rain and some heavy rain may linger, expand inland in the days following.

Please listen to this.
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djmike
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Good for me here in Beaumont if it verifies. May not happen BUT what is it with SETX and major flood events? I’ll gladly accept 5-7” from Mr Blob over a period of time, but anything more, Ill tap out! Hopefully this “thing” wont go down in history books. Im tired of being a part of history. Lol
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(IH-10 & College Street)
Cpv17
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weatherguy425 wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:39 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:24 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:12 pm Cpv17 00z HRRR is not our friend either , focuses the heavier rains toward beaumont and most of SE Texas except for coastal communities get shafted
Yeah that sounds about right.
One thing to keep in mind... the remnant LLC will continue to push into Texas in the days post "landfall". It'll also continue to pose a risk of localized heavy rain events. Even if the risk of flooding is greatest along the coast and further east (day of)... the chance of beneficial rain and some heavy rain may linger, expand inland in the days following.
Yeah there could be some feeder bands still that stretch back into the Gulf after the storm lifts northward and then there could be some that stretch back to the sw with a training ne movement. We’ll see.
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tireman4
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Rip76 wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:47 pm
weatherguy425 wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:39 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:24 pm

Yeah that sounds about right.
One thing to keep in mind... the remnant LLC will continue to push into Texas in the days post "landfall". It'll also continue to pose a risk of localized heavy rain events. Even if the risk of flooding is greatest along the coast and further east (day of)... the chance of beneficial rain and some heavy rain may linger, expand inland in the days following.

Please listen to this.

I second that emotion. It could be a long few days
Stormlover2020
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Going to be like Imelda type event, somebody getting flooded
mcheer23
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WRF also shifts east….. :oops: :cry:
TexasBreeze
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It happens like clockwork everytime. Once the shift starts it doesn't end. At least I got rain last Wednesday, Monday, and today!
Cpv17
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Terrible trends tonight.
Stratton20
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This spells huge bust potential 🤷‍♂️
TexasBreeze
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Could end up being more of a Nicolas track (much weaker though) after seeing a north northeast movement on some of the new models.
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:29 pm This spells huge bust potential 🤷‍♂️
Going to be very sharp cutoffs between someone getting a flood and someone getting barely anything at all. This is why I wish it would come in further sw so that way more of us could cash in.
redneckweather
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0.00"
mcheer23
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Awful trends….
Stormlover2020
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Awful trends for who ?
Cpv17
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Stormlover2020 wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:59 pm Awful trends for who ?
Well mainly for anyone north of 59 or west of 45.
Stratton20
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Pretty much for most of se texas, with the exception of some coastal counties and places east like beaumont, fingers crossed that tonights trends are a bust in themselves haha
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