June 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
davidiowx
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From Jeff this morning:

Weak surface low pressure may attempt to form over the northern Gulf of Mexico early to mid next week.

Surface frontal trough will move into the northern Gulf of Mexico early next week and stall across the warm waters. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will accompany this frontal trough and upper level winds will become increasingly favorable for surface low pressure to form. Overnight guidance has continued the trend of weak low pressure forming somewhere along this frontal trough from off the southern Louisiana coast to off the lower TX coast early to mid next week. Guidance runs overnight have been a bit weaker in the development compared to yesterday morning, but there remains a signal suggesting that some sort of weak surface low may attempt to develop. Any weak low that forms would generally track toward the west or WNW in the low level steering flow around surface high pressure over the eastern US behind the frontal trough.

The National Hurricane Center gives the chance of development over the next 5 days at 20%.

Rain chances will increase across SE TX early next week in association with the frontal zone and trough over the region. Any potential surface low formation over the Gulf of Mexico would potentially alter the forecast by mid week along the TX coast will additional rain chances.
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don
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Time to start watching the Gulf. I wasn't expecting the NHC to say something until Sunday or Monday...6Z GFS with a tropical storm making landfall at Matagorda. 6Z RGEM is also picking up on TC genesis..
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Screenshot 2022-06-25 at 08-35-27 Models GFS — Pivotal Weather.png
Screenshot 2022-06-25 at 08-35-38 Models GFS — Pivotal Weather.png
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Last edited by don on Sat Jun 25, 2022 9:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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jasons2k
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Fri Jun 24, 2022 10:09 pm
jasons2k wrote: Fri Jun 24, 2022 7:04 pm Down here in Florida it takes some getting used to the weather patterns again when looking at radar loops. I’ve almost forgotten what it’s like to see multiple storms blossom again and again as multiple outflow boundaries go by. I’m so used to everything dying on me all the time that it’s actually playing with my mind to see the opposite for a change - haha.
Did you finally move back home?
Not permanently but we’re at our place down here for awhile. Everything here is lush and green. I don’t miss the 100 degree heat.
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don
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6Z ICON looks like it caved from it's Louisiana solution.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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jasons2k wrote: Sat Jun 25, 2022 9:01 am
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Fri Jun 24, 2022 10:09 pm
jasons2k wrote: Fri Jun 24, 2022 7:04 pm Down here in Florida it takes some getting used to the weather patterns again when looking at radar loops. I’ve almost forgotten what it’s like to see multiple storms blossom again and again as multiple outflow boundaries go by. I’m so used to everything dying on me all the time that it’s actually playing with my mind to see the opposite for a change - haha.
Did you finally move back home?
Not permanently but we’re at our place down here for awhile. Everything here is lush and green. I don’t miss the 100 degree heat.

Good deal! I’m happy for you.

We are less than 12 months away from permanently leaving Montgomery County and splitting time between our ranch in Colorado County and Montana.
Team #NeverSummer
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don
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Add the NAM to the list now of models showing TC development.

Also from HGX this morning regarding tropical development.
Attention then turns to Monday night into Tuesday as deterministic
models and some ensemble means develop an area of low pressure along
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Latest GFS and NAM (00Z Sat) bring
a closed low developing along the Upper TX coast by early Tuesday,
moving inland on Wed. The ECMWF, on the other hand, remains slower
and does not develop a closed low. While there are some
disagreements with the strength and phase of this easterly wave;
models do agree in bringing an uptick in moisture. In fact,
precipitable waters are near the 90th percentile of NAEFS and GEFS
climatology with values over 2.0 inches along the coast. Confidence
in the evolution of this easterly wave and the probability of
becoming a tropical cyclone is very low at this time (20 percent per
NHC) as there are questions as to how supportive the environment
will be for tropical cyclone. With that being said, have kept a
chance for showers and thunderstorms through the period, with
better chances along and south of I-10.

The uncertainty in the forecast Wednesday and beyond is high as it
will strongly depend on the possible formation of the aforementioned
low pressure and the location of the associated quasi-stationary
boundary. As of now, given the close proximity to either the quasi-
stationary front and/or the sfc low to our region and deep moisture
in the BL, will leave the rain/storm chances wording in the
forecast Wed into Friday, with the best chances along the coast.
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Screenshot 2022-06-25 at 09-51-59 Models NAM — Pivotal Weather.png
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djmike
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If models keep showing the Low any further into south texas we wont see much in our neck of the woods from it. Showers from and decaying front then thats it! My opinion if this comes in around Freeport to Sabine Pass we should get beneficial showers. Anything below a Freeport landfall, HOU/BMT wont see much of anything. IMO. Hopefully models trend back up the coast. Again, a weak tropical system, bring it! Anything more can go away!
Mike
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don
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djmike wrote: Sat Jun 25, 2022 10:26 am If models keep showing the Low any further into south texas we wont see much in our neck of the woods from it. Showers from and decaying front then thats it! My opinion if this comes in around Freeport to Sabine Pass we should get beneficial showers. Anything below a Freeport landfall, HOU/BMT wont see much of anything. IMO. Hopefully models trend back up the coast. Again, a weak tropical system, bring it! Anything more can go away!
Not sure about Beaumont but for Houston, usually anything that hits from Matagorda-Galveston is a good spot for us rainfall wise.A Sabine landfall would be terrible for Houston as far as rain goes...
Cpv17
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djmike wrote: Sat Jun 25, 2022 10:26 am If models keep showing the Low any further into south texas we wont see much in our neck of the woods from it. Showers from and decaying front then thats it! My opinion if this comes in around Freeport to Sabine Pass we should get beneficial showers. Anything below a Freeport landfall, HOU/BMT wont see much of anything. IMO. Hopefully models trend back up the coast. Again, a weak tropical system, bring it! Anything more can go away!
Actually, that’s kinda false. Depending on the size of the system and how much it’s sheared, southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana can see rain from a system that tracks into deep south Texas. The sweet spot for southeast Texas would be anywhere from Port O’Connor to Sargent. If any tc comes ashore in between those areas there’s a really good chance everyone in southeast TX will see some good rains. The north and east side of the system 9 times outta 10 is where all the action is at.
Cromagnum
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The way this spring and summer are going I would not be surprised at all if even a TC goose-egged our region somehow.
Stratton20
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While I believe most of us will get beneficial rains out of this, we just have to monitor the flood threat carefully, as with any tropical system the rain rates could be high, and a more organized Low could definitely increase those further, not saying we will see flooding, but considering whatever may form doesn’t appear like it will be moving that fast, definitely could see some flooding problems, I hope we dont but we have seen time after time these weak tropical systems are notorious for creating flood problems here in Se Texas
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djmike
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Cpv17 wrote: Sat Jun 25, 2022 10:42 am
djmike wrote: Sat Jun 25, 2022 10:26 am If models keep showing the Low any further into south texas we wont see much in our neck of the woods from it. Showers from and decaying front then thats it! My opinion if this comes in around Freeport to Sabine Pass we should get beneficial showers. Anything below a Freeport landfall, HOU/BMT wont see much of anything. IMO. Hopefully models trend back up the coast. Again, a weak tropical system, bring it! Anything more can go away!
Actually, that’s kinda false. Depending on the size of the system and how much it’s sheared, southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana can see rain from a system that tracks into deep south Texas. The sweet spot for southeast Texas would be anywhere from Port O’Connor to Sargent. If any tc comes ashore in between those areas there’s a really good chance everyone in southeast TX will see some good rains. The north and east side of the system 9 times outta 10 is where all the action is at.
True true. I didn’t factor in the potential of a sheared system. Is there any indications of shear during that time? I do remember harvey well below Hou and us getting hammered.
Mike
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(IH-10 & College Street)
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don
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12Z ICON with landfall around Matagorda.
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don
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12Z GFS is weaker than the 6Z run with the system, it keeps it as a tropical low into Corpus.
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Katdaddy
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Hoping we get some well needed rainfall and nothing more but we shall see.
Stratton20
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I hope that ICON solution is right, that would be a good soaker, that GFS run is rather unimpressive with rainfall totals, will need to watch the mesoscale models as its getting almost into their range, i suspect NHC will increase odds of development at their 2pm update
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Sat Jun 25, 2022 12:18 pm I hope that ICON solution is right, that would be a good soaker, that GFS run is rather unimpressive with rainfall totals, will need to watch the mesoscale models as its getting almost into their range, i suspect NHC will increase odds of development at their 2pm update
Yeah but the 6z GFS was beautiful lol
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captainbarbossa19
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Cpv17 wrote: Sat Jun 25, 2022 12:35 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Sat Jun 25, 2022 12:18 pm I hope that ICON solution is right, that would be a good soaker, that GFS run is rather unimpressive with rainfall totals, will need to watch the mesoscale models as its getting almost into their range, i suspect NHC will increase odds of development at their 2pm update
Yeah but the 6z GFS was beautiful lol
I'm hoping the 12z Euro comes on board, but it may not even if something was actually developing knowing its history.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 Honestly though the whole of SE Texas could probably use a good 4-6 inches of rain( spread out of course) to put a good dent in this drought, will be important to watch the mesoscale models over the next few days as they usually do pretty decent with rain fall totals
Cpv17
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captainbarbossa19 wrote: Sat Jun 25, 2022 12:36 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Sat Jun 25, 2022 12:35 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Sat Jun 25, 2022 12:18 pm I hope that ICON solution is right, that would be a good soaker, that GFS run is rather unimpressive with rainfall totals, will need to watch the mesoscale models as its getting almost into their range, i suspect NHC will increase odds of development at their 2pm update
Yeah but the 6z GFS was beautiful lol
I'm hoping the 12z Euro comes on board, but it may not even if something was actually developing knowing its history.
If the Euro jumps onboard then you’ll start seeing a lot more people talk about it.
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