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Nice cells in Liberty County....will probably pass *just* to the north by a hair. We'll see if they can build to the south and west just a little bit more but I'm not exactly holding my breath.

I washed my truck yesterday after work and then today I got a one minute sprinkle at work. I go outside and my truck has sand all over it. Guess I’ll be washing my truck again this weekend and hope it brings some rain for everyone!

0Z ICON still showing TC development with next weeks surface low FWIW.

Looks like a weak tropical storm on that run

00z Euro tries to close off a weak low before approaching Texas next week, looks like just a weak vorticity signature right now

Im sure many of us wouldn’t mind a weak tropical storm right about now or especially after this week. Bring it!

12z ICON still develop a closed low next week FWIW, but it is the ICON lol, not buying it until other models really jump on board, if they even do at all, regardless it looks like some badly needed rain is on the way! Fingers crossed folks

Man the 12z Icon Low would be perfect placement if it verified for some very badly needed Tx rain.

12z GFS looks really good for rain over the next 10 days. Hopefully the Euro likes the same idea.

Sure does look good indeed, it also shows the low level vorticity some of the other models have been picking up on.But keeps it partially inland riding the coast of Louisiana and moving west into Texas which helps to enhance rainfall with the stalled frontal boundary.

don wrote: ↑Wed Jun 22, 2022 12:20 pm Sure does look good indeed, it also shows the low level vorticity some of the other models have been picking up on.But keeps it partially inland riding the coast of Louisiana and moving west into Texas which helps to enhance rainfall with the stalled frontal boundary.

I just looked and due to all the rain/clouds, the GFS only has our highs in the 80s most of next week. That seems hard to believe! However, I am thinking now that this weekend may not be quite as hot as projected a few days ago. I am thinking now right around 100 instead of 105+ for most areas.

captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 22, 2022 12:40 pm

don wrote: ↑Wed Jun 22, 2022 12:20 pm Sure does look good indeed, it also shows the low level vorticity some of the other models have been picking up on.But keeps it partially inland riding the coast of Louisiana and moving west into Texas which helps to enhance rainfall with the stalled frontal boundary.

I just looked and due to all the rain/clouds, the GFS only has our highs in the 80s most of next week. That seems hard to believe! However, I am thinking now that this weekend may not be quite as hot as projected a few days ago. I am thinking now right around 100 instead of 105+ for most areas.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Wed Jun 22, 2022 12:47 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 22, 2022 12:40 pm

don wrote: ↑Wed Jun 22, 2022 12:20 pm Sure does look good indeed, it also shows the low level vorticity some of the other models have been picking up on.But keeps it partially inland riding the coast of Louisiana and moving west into Texas which helps to enhance rainfall with the stalled frontal boundary.

I just looked and due to all the rain/clouds, the GFS only has our highs in the 80s most of next week. That seems hard to believe! However, I am thinking now that this weekend may not be quite as hot as projected a few days ago. I am thinking now right around 100 instead of 105+ for most areas.

Then we have an accord.

00
FXUS64 KHGX 221742
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1242 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions should prevail through the duration of the TAF
period A few isolated showers continue to linger near the coast
with activity expected to pick up over the next 1-3 hours as the
sea breeze moves inland. Isolated showers and storms will
continue through around 00Z around and south of the Houston metro,
after which activity will diminish with the loss of daytime
heating. Light to moderate south to south-southwest winds continue
through the afternoon with winds becoming light and variable
overnight. Some patchy fog may develop to the southwest of the
metro area overnight but impacts should be limited.

Cady

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 619 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022/...

.SHORT TERM [Today through Thursday Night]...

Currently.... Sfc obs and satellite imagery show patchy fog and few
to scattered low clouds developing along and west of the I-45
corridor. Fog and/or stratus will quickly dissipate/lift shortly
after daybreak. Isolated showers are also developing and moving
along the coastal zones. Expect this activity to continue through 7-
8AM.

Today... Similar weather pattern is expected today with hot and
humid conditions and isolated showers and thunderstorms developing
inland in the afternoon. Mid to upper level ridge centered over the
ArkLaTex remains strong and will continue to expand over TX today.
Sfc high pressure over the northern Gulf coast will shift westward
into the Upper TX coast throughout the day, providing efficient WAA
into the region. With that being said, isolated convection can be
expected inland with the seabreeze. Highs will once again climb from
the low 90s along the coast to near 101 degrees across our
northwestern counties. With low sfc dewpoint values throughout the
day (from 60s to low 70s; afternoon heat indices will range from 102
to 107 degrees.

Thursday... Ridging will continue to move westward into TX in the
next few days, providing more subsidence into the region. However, a
few fast-moving ripples/shortwaves will attempt to ride along the
southeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge on Thursday. With
moderate low to mid level moisture and instability; a few showers
and storms will be possible, mainly north of I-10. In terms of
temperatures, it will be even hotter. Highs from the upper 90s to
near 102 degrees are expected. Overnight lows from the upper 70s to
mid 80s.

05


.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...

Persistent high pressure overhead will keep Southeast Texas hot with
minimal rain chances. Daytime highs will flirt with triple digits
near 100-102 degF on Friday through Sunday for inland locations and
upper 90s closer to the coast. Southwesterly flow aloft will bring
in a drier airmass, which will mix down to the surface each
afternoon and help significantly lower dewpoints. These lower
dewpoints should keep us short of Heat Advisory criteria, but a few
isolated areas of 103 degF cannot be ruled out this weekend.
Overnight lows will struggle to recover and reach the upper 70s
outside of urban locations, near 80 across the Houston Metro area,
and low 80s along the coast.

Fortunately, global models are still predicting a front to push
through our area on Monday and lingering near the coast on Tuesday,
but exact timing remains uncertain. Therefore, kept rain chances
near 20-30% for Monday and Tuesday. Cloud cover should increase
early next week from this front which should help cool daytime highs
a few degrees. Inland locations will reach the upper 90s and coastal
areas will reach the mid 90s. Overnight lows will still hover in the
upper 70s to low 80s across Southeast Texas.

Lenninger


.MARINE...

Light to moderate onshore flow will persist through most of the
week. Swell will begin to subside this afternoon and seas will hover
near 2 feet through the weekend.

Lenninger

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 76 102 75 102 78 / 20 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 77 100 77 102 79 / 20 20 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 81 95 82 96 84 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...Lenninger
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Lenninger

Im need to frame that QPF! That looks awesome!! If we can just survive the next few days of 101-105. Its gonna be brutal.

12z Euro has the weak low moving in between Corpus and Madagorda Bay, not much rain on that run though, also their are now a few GEFS members now show potential development of the low ( if it stays off shore ) just off of our coast next week FWIW, granted only about 6 or so members of the 31 show any sort of development, but its something to watch as that front stalls out next week

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 22, 2022 2:23 pm 12z Euro has the weak low moving in between Corpus and Madagorda Bay, not much rain on that run though, also their are now a few GEFS members now show potential development of the low ( if it stays off shore ) just off of our coast next week FWIW, granted only about 6 or so members of the 31 show any sort of development, but its something to watch as that front stalls out next week

The rotation tightens up as it moves closer to the shore. No doubt from land frictional forces. I question the lack of rain from such a system since it is tightening not breaking up.

captainbarbossa19 yeag with the front stalled that will squeeze out the tropical moisture combined with potential low pressure developing in the gulf, that euro rainfall forecast is very surprising, of course if this low stays over water and does develop those rainfall projections would go up by alot

Had a nice little cell near my neighborhood but it passed on down the street from our house and flipped us the bird as it went on by.

Yeah, a sight for sore eyes. Please, no Lucy on this QPF!



CMC, Euro, even Ensembles leaning toward a wetter solution. Fingers crossed the trend is our friend.