July 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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captainbarbossa19
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jasons2k wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 9:02 pm Sadly it’s fizzling :(

But my friends in SW Austin are about to get nailed again. All in all this is no 2011 situation.
I agree and have been saying that for a while. This is a much drier than normal summer, but it's better than 2011. I remember my grass being all completely dead. This summer, it has died back in patches, but then it will rain enough to bring it back. Rain was far more infrequent in 2011. 2008 seems to be a closer analog drought-wise.
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tireman4
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 150937
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
437 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday Night]...

For the first time on this current string of mids, we`re NOT going
to start this forecast with a Heat Advisory for anywhere in SE TX.
The main forecast issue for the short-term looks to be increasing
rain chances through this afternoon and early evening. The combi-
nation of deep moisture (PWs 2-2.3"), daytime heating and perhaps
a weak perturbation moving in from the W/NW Gulf should support a
decent shot of rain for the CWA...the southern half in particular.
Will be expecting widespread activity with locally heavy rains in
the stronger storms. While not anticipating any severe weather at
this time, WPC does have our coastal counties outlooked (Marginal
Risk) for excessive rainfall. Stay tuned.

Otherwise, coverage to wane with the loss of heating this evening
with quiet humid weather on tap overnight. For tomorrow, with the
mid/upper ridge trying to build back into the Plains, out pattern
should be shifting back to a more typical one for summer. That is,
isolated activity along and near the coast around sunrise, with a
transition to isolated to scattered development near/with the sea
breeze as we head into the afternoon. High temperatures are going
to run a bit "cooler" than it has been with highs in the lower to
mid 90s today. But we`ll warm up tomorrow back into the upper 90s
to around 100 over our northern counties...mid and upper 90s over
the central and lower to mid 90s for coastal areas. The overnight
lows will hold steady in the mid and upper 70s...lower 80s at the
coast. 41

&&

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...

The area looks to be getting back into a very dry and very hot period
as mid/upper level high pressure becomes the main weather feature
once again. There might be enough weakness in the ridge to allow
for some isolated shower/thunderstorm development during the peak
heating afternoon hours each day (generally concentrated around the
Galveston Bay area and locations on off to the east), but do expect
a vast majority of the area to stay dry. Eyes will then turn back
toward inland area high temperatures which are expected to get back
into an upper 90s to around 100 on Sunday and Monday followed by
more widespread 100-103 degree readings or higher for the remainder
of the week. Heat index values will flirt with Heat Advisory levels
on Monday and will likely exceed the levels for the rest of the week.
At this time, anticipating a Heat Advisory for a majority of the area
in the Tuesday through Friday time period.

42

&&

.MARINE...

Light to moderate onshore winds can be expected through the upcoming
weekend and on through much of next week. Showers and thunderstorms
can be expected today, followed by much lower rain chances on Saturday
and a drying trend from Sunday through much of next week. Higher winds
and seas will be possible in the vicinity of any stronger storms today.

42

&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Should be another busy/messy day with TAFs with rain chances likely
increasing through the day. Main issues will be with lower VIS from
brief heavy rains and gusts to 25-30kts. Activity to decrease at/by
sunset with the loss of heating. Brief/spotty MVFR CIGS/VIS will be
possible at some terminals tonight into early Sat morning...but VFR
conditions should prevail for the most part. 41

&&

.CLIMATE...

Galveston had a low temperature yesterday morning of 75 degrees,
their coolest temperature since May 26th. This broke Galveston`s
amazing streak of either tying or breaking record high minimum
temperatures - 11 straight days!

Yesterday`s rainfall total for Galveston was 2.28 inches which came
close to the July 14th record of 2.44 inches set in 1983. The 2.28
inches from yesterday beat Galveston`s total for the entire month
of June which was 2.26 inches.

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 95 76 98 77 102 / 30 10 10 10 0
Houston (IAH) 94 76 97 77 99 / 50 20 30 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 92 83 93 84 94 / 50 10 30 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$
Stratton20
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I hate to say it, but fingers crossed for a tropical system later on down the road, thats what its going to take to get widespread rain around here, just a terrible terrible weather pattern
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jasons2k
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Looking good for today. Hopefully the folks who missed out will get theirs today.

2008 is a decent drought analog but the summer and fall were very different because La Nina was gone - not the case this year.

Mother Nature is about to go lights out this hurricane season - get ready!! Be careful what you wish for!!
mcheer23
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jasons2k wrote: Fri Jul 15, 2022 10:20 am Looking good for today. Hopefully the folks who missed out will get theirs today.

2008 is a decent drought analog but the summer and fall were very different because La Nina was gone - not the case this year.

Mother Nature is about to go lights out this hurricane season - get ready!! Be careful what you wish for!!
Speaking of 2008...I remember one storm from that year... ;)
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jasons2k
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These slow-moving storms are going to give some folks a lot of rain - especially before they start spitting out gust fronts.
Cpv17
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mcheer23 wrote: Fri Jul 15, 2022 10:27 am
jasons2k wrote: Fri Jul 15, 2022 10:20 am Looking good for today. Hopefully the folks who missed out will get theirs today.

2008 is a decent drought analog but the summer and fall were very different because La Nina was gone - not the case this year.

Mother Nature is about to go lights out this hurricane season - get ready!! Be careful what you wish for!!
Speaking of 2008...I remember one storm from that year... ;)
That storm had a very erratic track. Definitely one of the stranger ones I’ve seen.
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Fri Jul 15, 2022 10:33 am These slow-moving storms are going to give some folks a lot of rain - especially before they start spitting out gust fronts.
They are too far south for us. Tropics or bust for us, although it's more likely a TS heads to LA again making it even hotter here.
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don
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mcd0506.gif
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0506
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1131 AM EDT Fri Jul 15 2022

Areas affected...Southeast Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 151530Z - 152100Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving cluster of thunderstorms within an
environment supportive of efficient warm rain processes could lead
to flash flooding, especially in urbanized or low lying areas.

DISCUSSION...GOES-16 water vapor imagery showed an elongated and
inverted 500-700mb trough axis that stretched up and down the
southeast TX coast. There was also an 850mb low identified within
the trough axis to the west of Corpus Christi and Victoria, closer
to the most pronounced area of convection as of 15Z. The 12Z CRP
sounding analyzed an environment that was supportive for causing
efficient and excessive rainfall rates. PWs via the 12Z CRP
sounding were up to 2.25", which is above the 90th climatological
percentile and not far off from the daily observed maximum. The
warm cloud layer observed was as deep as ~14,000' AGL. In
addition, mean wind speeds within the cloud layer (LCL-EL) were a
mere 2 kts. Combined with MLCAPE of ~2,000 J/kg available and
upper 70s dew points, the environment does support excessive
rainfall rates. Some areas in and around Victoria have received
>3" in under the past 2 hours.

This is beneficial rainfall for drought-stricken southeast TX and
it should help limit the flash flood threat to be very localized.
However, the slow motion of these efficient rainfall producing
cells can lead to rainfall not being absorbed into the ground fast
enough, particularly in urbanized areas with more hydrophobic
surfaces. Victoria, in particular, saw a notable jump in FLASH
CREST max unit streamflow from the cells earlier this morning.
Visible satellite imagery is showing a blossoming field of
congested cumulus forming as far north as Houston and on south and
west closer to the 850mb low position. This field of cumulus does
have a surface trough in the vicinity to act as a trigger for
additional strong and slow moving cells over the next few hours.
Given the slow progression of the trough aloft, and a rich
reservoir of ~2.25" PWs (~90th climatological percentile for areas
to the northeast), additional areas of flash flooding are
possible. Areas most at risk are low lying, poor drainage spots
and within more urbanized communities.
Cromagnum
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All those cells moving in from the south and what do you know, they split like a shotgun and miss me on both sides yet again. I hope that blob comes up and dumps on us later.
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