July 2022

[DoctorMu]

No surprise here. The hottest July ever in CLL. Close to that in HOU and Galveston.

We have the slightest chance up here in the NW desert wasteland of a shortwave or seabreeze shower over the next 5 days. I'm not holding my breath.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
334 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday Night]...

Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are a little more active this
afternoon due to increased low level moisture. Temperatures outside
of rain-cooled air remain relatively unchanged with inland areas
reaching the upper 90s to low 100s this afternoon and coastal areas
reaching the mid 90s. Overnight lows will only cool down to the
upper 70s to low 80s.

Tomorrow`s weather pattern will be fairly similar again, except an
easterly moving mid-level shortwave will undercut the ridge
overhead. This combined with continued low level moisture advection
will enhance rain chances tomorrow. Should the shortwave arrive
early (like the 18Z HRRR is suggesting) then, we can expect more
coastal showers in the morning that will push inland throughout the
day, before dissipating by the late afternoon as the environment
gets mixed over. However, other hi-res models are hinting at the
shortwave arriving later and coinciding with peak daytime heating.
If that`s the case, we can expect enhanced sea breeze and bay breeze
convection in the afternoon and dissipating after sunset with the
loss of daytime heating. Long story short, rain chances will range
from 30-40% tomorrow compared to the 20% today.

Regarding tomorrow`s temperatures, 850mb temperatures cool a degree
or two and this combined with some increased cloud cover will help
cool surface temperatures a few degrees. Despite this, we can still
expect inland areas to reach the upper 90s to low 100s while coastal
areas will reach the low to mid 90s. Overnight lows on Wednesday
will cool to the upper 70s to low 80s again.

Lenninger

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...

The persistent mid/upper level ridge will continue to bring
above normal temperatures to the area at the end of the week,
over the weekend and on into the start of next week. Our area
will occasionally reside on the southern fringes of the ridge
which will allow for the possible of weaknesses (inverted
troughs) to move across the area and bring us a chance of
showers and thunderstorms (20%-30% range). At this time, it
looks like Thursday (and maybe Friday?) might end up being
our best chance of seeing these storms through the period.
The big weather issue will still be the heat with highs in
the upper 90s thru lower 100s inland and in the lower to mid
90s near and along the coast. Heat index values look to
continue to peak just below Heat Advisory levels almost every day.

Have included a Climate section below with some updated
information on the July heat.

42

&&

.MARINE...

Typical summertime pattern with S/SE winds 10-15kt and 2-4ft
seas prevailing thru the period. Can expect slight chances of
primarily late night and morning showers and thunderstorms.

42

&&

.CLIMATE...

Here is an update on hot July has been. For July 1-25...

-College Station
...Average high is 103.4 degrees (8.3 degrees above normal)
(warmest July on record is 101.1 in 1917)
...Average low is 78.5 (3.7 degrees above normal)
(warmest July on record is 77.5 in 2009)
...Average temp is 91.0 (6.1 degrees above normal)
(warmest July on record is 89.1 in 2009)

-Houston
...Average high is 98.9 degrees (4.6 degrees above normal)
(warmest July on record is 99.4 in 1980)
...Average low is 77.8 (2.2 degrees above normal)
(warmest July on record is 78.3 in 1963)
...Average temp is 88.3 (3.3 degrees above normal)
(warmest July on record is 87.5 in 1980)

-Houston Hobby
...Average high is 97.8 degrees (5.1 degrees above normal)
(warmest July on record is 96.6 in 1998)
...Average low is 78.8 (2.3 degrees above normal)
(warmest July on record is 78.8 in 2020)
...Average temp is 88.3 (3.7 degrees above normal)
(warmest July on record is 86.8 in 2016)

-Galveston
...Average high is 92.8 degrees (1.6 degrees above normal)
(warmest July on record is 94.7 in 1875)
...Average low is 83.8 (4.2 degrees above normal)
(warmest July on record is 82.2 in 1993)
...Average temp is 88.3 (2.9 degrees above normal)
(warmest July on record is 87.4 in 1875)

Galveston`s low temperature this morning was 86 degrees.
If the temperature does not fall below 86 before the end
of the day, this will tie their all-time record high
minimum temperature for July that was set earlier this
month four other times (19th, 20th, 23rd and 24th). Their
all-time record high minimum temperature for the entire
year is 87 degrees, and it was set four consecutive days
in a row (8/31/2020 thru 9/3/2020).

If Galveston`s low temperature today does not fall below
85 degrees, this will be the 8th consecutive day that
their low temperature has been at or above 85 degrees and
will be a brand new record (current record of seven consecutive
days has happened four times, including this month between
the 4th and the 10th and also the current streak between the
19th and the 25th).

-Palacios
...Average high is 93.1 degrees (1.5 degrees above normal)
(warmest July on record is 93.6 in 1954)
...Average low is 83.0 (4.0 degrees above normal)
(warmest July on record is 81.3 in 2009)
...Average temp is 88.1 (2.8 degrees above normal)
(warmest July on record is 87.0 in 2019)

College Station records date back to 1889
Houston records date back to 1889.
Houston Hobby records date back to 1931.
Galveston records date back to 1874.
Palacios records date back to 1943

42

&&

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Outside of afternoon showers and storms, VFR conditions will
prevail through the TAF period. We can expect scattered showers
and isolated storms south of Conroe this afternoon as the bay
breeze and sea breeze initiate convection. Expect short fused
amendments should a shower or storm push near an airport. Winds
will become southeasterly and gusty this afternoon and begin to
subside during the overnight hours. Tomorrow`s weather pattern
will be fairly similar with showers near our coastal terminals
from 10-14Z and then sea breeze/bay breeze showers and storms
starting around 18Z and pushing further inland. Coverage of this
afternoon convection will be a little more active tomorrow, so
went ahead and included VCSH/VCTS for sites south of Conroe
tomorrow afternoon.

Lenninger

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 78 101 78 102 78 / 10 20 10 10 0
Houston (IAH) 78 98 78 98 79 / 20 40 20 30 0
Galveston (GLS) 85 94 85 93 85 / 30 30 20 20 20

&&

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu i was reading an article, and apparently CS only officially recorded a total of 0.21 inches of rain for July, marking the driest July in CS since 1882 (before CS of course lol)

[user:null]

DoctorMu i was reading an article, and apparently CS only officially recorded a total of 0.21 inches of rain for July, marking the driest July in CS since 1882 (before CS of course lol)

In fact, that 0.21 inch total is actually for both this past June and July (so far): only .01 inches of rain this July in College Station.

[DoctorMu]

DoctorMu i was reading an article, and apparently CS only officially recorded a total of 0.21 inches of rain for July, marking the driest July in CS since 1882 (before CS of course lol)

0.0 in of rain IMBY for July.

No measurable rain for me for over 2 months.

[DoctorMu]

DoctorMu i was reading an article, and apparently CS only officially recorded a total of 0.21 inches of rain for July, marking the driest July in CS since 1882 (before CS of course lol)

In fact, that 0.21 inch total is actually for both this past June and July (so far): only .01 inches of rain this July in College Station.

I had 0.0 in or rain IMBY for June as well.

At least we're consistent!

[captainbarbossa19]

DoctorMu i was reading an article, and apparently CS only officially recorded a total of 0.21 inches of rain for July, marking the driest July in CS since 1882 (before CS of course lol)

In fact, that 0.21 inch total is actually for both this past June and July (so far): only .01 inches of rain this July in College Station.

I had 0.0 in or rain IMBY for June as well.

At least we're consistent!

Something positive to keep in mind. Given just how extreme this weather event has been, it is highly unlikely to occur anytime soon after it ends. The more extreme the event, the less likely it will happen again soon.

[jasons2k]

So do I want to torture myself and even bother looking at the radar today? Almost resigned to the fact it isn’t going to rain until September and another tree die-off is commencing (already seeing brown pine trees in the natural forest). With each passing day, I just miss Florida more. This is hell.

[DoctorMu]

In fact, that 0.21 inch total is actually for both this past June and July (so far): only .01 inches of rain this July in College Station.

I had 0.0 in or rain IMBY for June as well.

At least we're consistent!

Something positive to keep in mind. Given just how extreme this weather event has been, it is highly unlikely to occur anytime soon after it ends. The more extreme the event, the less likely it will happen again soon.

A. It's more like a coin flip. This year's heat does not decrease (or probably increase) the chance of a really hot summer next year.

b. However, over time with climate change, the dice are loaded so extremes will become more commonplace.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 271742
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1242 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Scattered shower and isolated thunderstorms expected this
afternoon for terminals south of Huntsville until shortly after
sunset. Expect short fused amendments should some of this
activity pass over an airport. Outside of TSRA/SHRA, VFR
conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Some models are
hinting at MVFR ceilings across our northern counties, but kept it
out of TAFs for CLL ant UTS for now. Tomorrow`s forecast is
fairly similar with coastal showers in the morning affecting LBX
and GLS from 09-14Z then sea/bay breeze affecting sites south of
Conroe in the afternoon from 18-23Z. However, coverage of
afternoon showers and storms will be a little less than what we`re
seeing today.

Lenninger

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 631 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022/...


.SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Night]...

Mid to upper level ridging across the Southern Plains and SE
CONUS will continue to dominate the weather pattern for today.
Though, an inverted trough will undercut the ridge, which should
help bring showers and thunderstorms throughout the day as it move
through SE Texas. Our best chances for rain look to be in the
afternoon, where interactions with the sea breeze may further aid
in the development of these storms, especially with 2" PWATS in
an uncapped environment. Increasing cloud cover and rainfall from
these storms will help bring slightly cooler temperatures compared
to yesterday. Though, "cooler" is a very relative term, as with
850mb temperatures sitting in the 18-20C range and 500mb heights
of around 591-593 dam, conditions will still be fairly hot. Highs
during the day will be in the mid 90s to lower 100s with lows in
the upper 70s to lower 80s overnight.


Influence from the inverted trough will diminish on Thursday as it
exits to the west of our area. The mid to upper level ridge will
continue to drive the weather pattern as 850mb temperatures and
500mb heights remain around the same range as the day before. Highs
during the day will still be in the mid 90s to lower 100s, all be
it, slightly warmer than the previous day. A few showers and
thunderstorms may develop throughout the day, mainly in the
afternoon with support from the seabreeze. Though without support
from the inverted trough, it won`t be as impressive as the previous
day.

03


.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...

Well above average temperatures and diurnal isolated to scattered
convection are the main weather stories in the long-term. Mid-to
upper level ridge will be centered over the Southeastern CONUS by
the end of the week. At the sfc, return flow from the high over the
eastern Gulf will continue to surge a warm and humid airmass into
the region. With continued onshore flow and moderate low-level
moisture in the 925:800mb layer, streamer showers will be
possible, at least into the weekend. In addition to morning
showers, a series of mid level shortwaves/PV anomalies will
continue to move westward into TX through the period. Upper
forcing and broad low level warm advection and instability will
increase thunderstorm chances, at least in the afternoon and
evening along the seabreeze. A thin layer of Saharan dust will
move over the region this weekend, lowering precipitation
chances, primarily on Saturday.

Daytime temperatures will continue to range 5 to 10 degrees above
average. Highs will generally climb from the mid 90s to 102
degrees. Warmest values across the northwestern counties/Brazos
Valley area. A gradual warming trend (well, a trend of even warmer
temperatures) are expected towards the end of the long term
period. The mid-upper level ridge will begin to move westward
into the Southeastern CONUS/Southern Plains, bringing back drier
air and temperatures into the triple digits at most locations.


05


.MARINE...

Surface high pressure over the eastern Gulf will continue to bring
light to moderate onshore flow and seas from 2-4 ft today and into
early next week. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are
expected mainly in the mornings. Winds may increase to 15-20 knots
at times, especially in the afternoon and evenings. 05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 78 101 78 101 77 / 10 20 0 20 10
Houston (IAH) 78 97 78 98 78 / 10 30 0 40 10
Galveston (GLS) 85 93 85 93 85 / 20 30 10 30 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...Lenninger
MARINE...05

[DoctorMu]

So do I want to torture myself and even bother looking at the radar today? Almost resigned to the fact it isn’t going to rain until September and another tree die-off is commencing (already seeing brown pine trees in the natural forest). With each passing day, I just miss Florida more. This is hell.

Same. Allegedly, there's a 20% chance of rain through Friday in CLL. I expect nothing.

There appears to be a Hwy 1*5 block on for tomorrow.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1242 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Scattered shower and isolated thunderstorms expected this
afternoon for terminals south of Huntsville until shortly after
sunset. Expect short fused amendments should some of this
activity pass over an airport. Outside of TSRA/SHRA, VFR
conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Some models are
hinting at MVFR ceilings across our northern counties, but kept it
out of TAFs for CLL ant UTS for now. Tomorrow`s forecast is
fairly similar with coastal showers in the morning affecting LBX
and GLS from 09-14Z then sea/bay breeze affecting sites south of
Conroe in the afternoon from 18-23Z. However, coverage of
afternoon showers and storms will be a little less than what we`re
seeing today.

Lenninger

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 631 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022/...


.SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Night]...

Mid to upper level ridging across the Southern Plains and SE
CONUS will continue to dominate the weather pattern for today.
Though, an inverted trough will undercut the ridge, which should
help bring showers and thunderstorms throughout the day as it move
through SE Texas. Our best chances for rain look to be in the
afternoon, where interactions with the sea breeze may further aid
in the development of these storms, especially with 2" PWATS in
an uncapped environment. Increasing cloud cover and rainfall from
these storms will help bring slightly cooler temperatures compared
to yesterday. Though, "cooler" is a very relative term, as with
850mb temperatures sitting in the 18-20C range and 500mb heights
of around 591-593 dam, conditions will still be fairly hot. Highs
during the day will be in the mid 90s to lower 100s with lows in
the upper 70s to lower 80s overnight.


Influence from the inverted trough will diminish on Thursday as it
exits to the west of our area. The mid to upper level ridge will
continue to drive the weather pattern as 850mb temperatures and
500mb heights remain around the same range as the day before. Highs
during the day will still be in the mid 90s to lower 100s, all be
it, slightly warmer than the previous day. A few showers and
thunderstorms may develop throughout the day, mainly in the
afternoon with support from the seabreeze. Though without support
from the inverted trough, it won`t be as impressive as the previous
day.

03


.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...

Well above average temperatures and diurnal isolated to scattered
convection are the main weather stories in the long-term. Mid-to
upper level ridge will be centered over the Southeastern CONUS by
the end of the week. At the sfc, return flow from the high over the
eastern Gulf will continue to surge a warm and humid airmass into
the region. With continued onshore flow and moderate low-level
moisture in the 925:800mb layer, streamer showers will be
possible, at least into the weekend. In addition to morning
showers, a series of mid level shortwaves/PV anomalies will
continue to move westward into TX through the period. Upper
forcing and broad low level warm advection and instability will
increase thunderstorm chances, at least in the afternoon and
evening along the seabreeze. A thin layer of Saharan dust will
move over the region this weekend, lowering precipitation
chances, primarily on Saturday.

Daytime temperatures will continue to range 5 to 10 degrees above
average. Highs will generally climb from the mid 90s to 102
degrees. Warmest values across the northwestern counties/Brazos
Valley area. A gradual warming trend (well, a trend of even warmer
temperatures) are expected towards the end of the long term
period. The mid-upper level ridge will begin to move westward
into the Southeastern CONUS/Southern Plains, bringing back drier
air and temperatures into the triple digits at most locations..


05


.MARINE...

Surface high pressure over the eastern Gulf will continue to bring
light to moderate onshore flow and seas from 2-4 ft today and into
early next week. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are
expected mainly in the mornings. Winds may increase to 15-20 knots
at times, especially in the afternoon and evenings. 05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 78 101 78 101 77 / 10 20 0 20 10
Houston (IAH) 78 97 78 98 78 / 10 30 0 40 10
Galveston (GLS) 85 93 85 93 85 / 20 30 10 30 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...Lenninger
MARINE...05

[captainbarbossa19]

Very warm water in the Gulf. You don't see 31C water in the Gulf very often. Caribbean looks pretty favorable too.

[Stratton20]

Yep the GOM and Caribbean are favorable, but I dont think we are going to see activity start to pick up until after the 20th of August

[captainbarbossa19]

Yep the GOM and Caribbean are favorable, but I dont think we are going to see activity start to pick up until after the 20th of August

I am going with right around the 20th. When we are experiencing quiet early Augusts, models are notorious for failing to pick up pattern changes. Dorian in 2019 is a really good example of a major model fail.

[jasons2k]

Same story, different day. Everything goes poof at my doorstep.

Edit: I hear thunder now. Will believe it when the ground is wet.

Edit: poof, yards away, three times in one day!!!

[DoctorMu]

Same story, different day. Everything goes poof at my doorstep.

Edit: I hear thunder now. Will believe it when the ground is wet.

Edit: poof, yards away, three times in one day!!!

Another afternoon, another outflow boundary.

but heavy cloud, no rain.

https://youtu.be/1T0tJnaUhU8

[cperk]

I picked up a half inch around 5pm.

[Katdaddy]

Glad areas around downtown and to the W got some well needed rainfall. Nice light rain on the downtown 8 block walk to the Metro bus. You could see the isolated deluge several blocks to the S.

[DoctorMu]

Got a trace of rain. I am not sure it is measurable. But there was liquid falling for a couple of minutes. It "cooled" temps from 100°F to 92°F.

[jasons2k]

I just got the shaft again for the 4th time today. Four times it fell apart almost on top of me!

[Stratton20]

Jasons2k im convinced you’re area is cursed lol Curse of the donut!