July 2022
-
redneckweather
- Posts: 1022
- Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2010 7:29 pm
- Location: Montgomery, Texas
- Contact:
0.00"
The Sabine River is like an iron curtain.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4471
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 281136
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
636 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Scattered showers will continue to develop near the coastal
terminals this morning. As the day heats up, scattered
thunderstorms will develop along the coast and eventually move
inland towards the remaining terminals by this afternoon.
Southerly winds this morning will become 10-15kts out of the SE
late in the afternoon from the sea breeze, later becoming light
once again overnight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 356 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022/...
.SHORT TERM [Through Friday Night]...
Much like the day before, mid to upper level ridging across
South/Southeast CONUS will continue to drive the weather pattern
for SE Texas. Weak shortwaves passing overhead, paired with an
inverted trough currently situated over Deep S Texas will work to
bring more showers and thunderstorms this morning, though its
influence should diminish later in the day as the trough continues
west and the upper level speed max associated with it moves out
of our area. Even with its diminishing influence, model soundings
still indicate an uncapped environment with 1.9-2.1" PWATS, which
should allow for scattered showers and storms to develop in the
afternoon with the sea breeze. Any showers the do develop will
provide some mild relief from the heat, though with 850mb
temperatures sitting around 18-20C, we`ll mostly see highs in the
mid to upper 90s during the day with a few locations aiming to
breaking triple digits. Dewpoints should mix out during the day,
though heat indicies will still be around 102- 106F in the
afternoon. In other words, it will still be quite hot, so be
mindful of the temperature and practice good heat safety habits.
On Friday, another inverted trough will settle in over Cuba,
which will slowly begin to exert its influence over SE Texas as
the disturbance itself drifts west through the Gulf of Mexico.
This will help bring more showers and thunderstorms throughout the
day, particularly in the afternoon with support from the sea
breeze. Temperatures will still be in the mid to upper 90s across
the region with a few isolated spots threatening triple digit
highs in the afternoon. Rain chances should taper off into the
evening, with lows in the upper 70s to lower 80s overnight.
.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...
With the mid-upper level ridge extending over the Southeastern
CONUS, hot weather continues through the long term period.
Southerly surface winds will prevail, providing a continued influx
of moisture across SETX. The combination of daytime heating and
seabreeze interaction will allow for showers and thunderstorms in
the afternoon. Convection looks to be less in coverage Saturday
and Sunday as a thin layer of Saharan dust moves over TX. As of
now, have kept around 15 to 25 percent of PoP, mainly for our
southeastern counties.
As we head into early next week, a parade of mid-level shortwaves
will continue to move west into the region. This will result in
increasing rain/storm chances, especially along the
seabreeze/baybreeze in the afternoon and evening. Ridging aloft
gradually retrogrades toward the Southern Plains, increasing
subsidence/dry air entrainment into the region after Tuesday.
This pattern will result in warmer and drier conditions. Have only
kept up to 20 percent of PoP at least Tuesday through Thursday.
Deterministic models differ with the arrival of the next "strong"
inverted upper trough. The GFS is the fastest solution and brings
this system by Thursday while the ECMWF and Canadian bring it by
Friday into Saturday. As of now, will keep PoPs as guidance
suggests with a drier solution towards the end of the medium
range.
Temperature-wise, the heat will continue as the ridge aloft
gradually shifts west and 850mb temperatures range into the 20 to
25 degC after Tuesday. Heat indices near advisory levels can be
anticipated.
.MARINE...
High pressure to our east will continue to dominate the weather
pattern. Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas from
2-3 ft are expected in the next 7 days. Seas building up to 4ft
will be possible during the weekend. Winds will increase to
Caution level (15-20 knots) at times, especially in the afternoon
and early evening. In addition, isolated to scattered showers and
storms are expected mainly in the mornings. Gusty winds are
expected with any strong storms. 05
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 100 79 101 79 101 / 10 10 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 96 79 97 78 99 / 30 10 40 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 94 86 94 85 93 / 20 20 40 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 AM CDT this morning
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...03
MARINE...05
FXUS64 KHGX 281136
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
636 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Scattered showers will continue to develop near the coastal
terminals this morning. As the day heats up, scattered
thunderstorms will develop along the coast and eventually move
inland towards the remaining terminals by this afternoon.
Southerly winds this morning will become 10-15kts out of the SE
late in the afternoon from the sea breeze, later becoming light
once again overnight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 356 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022/...
.SHORT TERM [Through Friday Night]...
Much like the day before, mid to upper level ridging across
South/Southeast CONUS will continue to drive the weather pattern
for SE Texas. Weak shortwaves passing overhead, paired with an
inverted trough currently situated over Deep S Texas will work to
bring more showers and thunderstorms this morning, though its
influence should diminish later in the day as the trough continues
west and the upper level speed max associated with it moves out
of our area. Even with its diminishing influence, model soundings
still indicate an uncapped environment with 1.9-2.1" PWATS, which
should allow for scattered showers and storms to develop in the
afternoon with the sea breeze. Any showers the do develop will
provide some mild relief from the heat, though with 850mb
temperatures sitting around 18-20C, we`ll mostly see highs in the
mid to upper 90s during the day with a few locations aiming to
breaking triple digits. Dewpoints should mix out during the day,
though heat indicies will still be around 102- 106F in the
afternoon. In other words, it will still be quite hot, so be
mindful of the temperature and practice good heat safety habits.
On Friday, another inverted trough will settle in over Cuba,
which will slowly begin to exert its influence over SE Texas as
the disturbance itself drifts west through the Gulf of Mexico.
This will help bring more showers and thunderstorms throughout the
day, particularly in the afternoon with support from the sea
breeze. Temperatures will still be in the mid to upper 90s across
the region with a few isolated spots threatening triple digit
highs in the afternoon. Rain chances should taper off into the
evening, with lows in the upper 70s to lower 80s overnight.
.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...
With the mid-upper level ridge extending over the Southeastern
CONUS, hot weather continues through the long term period.
Southerly surface winds will prevail, providing a continued influx
of moisture across SETX. The combination of daytime heating and
seabreeze interaction will allow for showers and thunderstorms in
the afternoon. Convection looks to be less in coverage Saturday
and Sunday as a thin layer of Saharan dust moves over TX. As of
now, have kept around 15 to 25 percent of PoP, mainly for our
southeastern counties.
As we head into early next week, a parade of mid-level shortwaves
will continue to move west into the region. This will result in
increasing rain/storm chances, especially along the
seabreeze/baybreeze in the afternoon and evening. Ridging aloft
gradually retrogrades toward the Southern Plains, increasing
subsidence/dry air entrainment into the region after Tuesday.
This pattern will result in warmer and drier conditions. Have only
kept up to 20 percent of PoP at least Tuesday through Thursday.
Deterministic models differ with the arrival of the next "strong"
inverted upper trough. The GFS is the fastest solution and brings
this system by Thursday while the ECMWF and Canadian bring it by
Friday into Saturday. As of now, will keep PoPs as guidance
suggests with a drier solution towards the end of the medium
range.
Temperature-wise, the heat will continue as the ridge aloft
gradually shifts west and 850mb temperatures range into the 20 to
25 degC after Tuesday. Heat indices near advisory levels can be
anticipated.
.MARINE...
High pressure to our east will continue to dominate the weather
pattern. Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas from
2-3 ft are expected in the next 7 days. Seas building up to 4ft
will be possible during the weekend. Winds will increase to
Caution level (15-20 knots) at times, especially in the afternoon
and early evening. In addition, isolated to scattered showers and
storms are expected mainly in the mornings. Gusty winds are
expected with any strong storms. 05
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 100 79 101 79 101 / 10 10 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 96 79 97 78 99 / 30 10 40 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 94 86 94 85 93 / 20 20 40 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 AM CDT this morning
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...03
MARINE...05
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4471
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
00
FXUS64 KHGX 281722
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1222 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022
.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
Isolated to scattered showers and storms possible through 00z
today, especially south of Conroe. Patchy fog possible west of
I-45 from 09Z to 14Z tomorrow morning. Possible MVFR ceilings
during the same time frame for the Brazos Valley. Isolated showers
along the coast during the early to mid-morning hours. Scattered
showers and storms possible with the sea breeze and bay breeze
tomorrow afternoon.
FXUS64 KHGX 281722
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1222 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022
.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
Isolated to scattered showers and storms possible through 00z
today, especially south of Conroe. Patchy fog possible west of
I-45 from 09Z to 14Z tomorrow morning. Possible MVFR ceilings
during the same time frame for the Brazos Valley. Isolated showers
along the coast during the early to mid-morning hours. Scattered
showers and storms possible with the sea breeze and bay breeze
tomorrow afternoon.
Lucy, is that you again?
-
captainbarbossa19
- Posts: 401
- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2021 2:50 pm
- Location: Starkville, MS
- Contact:
Raining pretty good right now over here.
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captainbarbossa19
- Posts: 401
- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2021 2:50 pm
- Location: Starkville, MS
- Contact:
Some hope on the horizon. Models are showing the strongest ridging to shift next weekend towards the Ohio River Valley. As a result, the flow would become easterly and should give us a higher risk of storms. The Euro and GFS both show this happening. Of course, one negative factor could be tropical trouble later on.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4246
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
captainbarbossa19 the euro is usually very good with ridging , and looking at the latest 12z EPS guidance, its only oit to hour 210 so far but it shifts the core of the heat ridge to the Northeast or centered around the SE US Coast, has much weaker ridging over texas, hopefully that allows for a more “ wetter pattern” to set up, also like how the past few GFS runs really have backed off on the ridge truely building back over us permanently and more so just temporarily, all very good signs so far
Edit: Noaa’s latest 8-14 day precipitation outlook agrees with this, above normal precipitation favored for Texas
Edit: Noaa’s latest 8-14 day precipitation outlook agrees with this, above normal precipitation favored for Texas
- Attachments
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The usual split is occurring….
- Attachments
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Raining again here with a lot of thunder also.
Everything between 59 and 45 just vaporized.
The same places keep getting more rain and the same places keep getting shafted. I swear.
The same places keep getting more rain and the same places keep getting shafted. I swear.
Woot woot! 2.50” at my house in Beaumont and areas around town saw close to 3” today! I hear my city rejoicing already!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
I got two huge downpours (second one ongoing) today here in Richmond - Fulshear area (Fort Bend). Don't know how much totals are though, since I don't have a gauge.
Solid storms all through inner city Houston as well.
Two showers developed just north of use - 2-3 miles away and of course heading north.
Lucy's just giving me the finger. It rained heavily on campus yesterday evening, but not at home.
This did capture my eye in the forecast:
an uncapped environment with 1.9-2.1" PWATA
At least football practice finally begins next week...and the grand opening of Costco in town!
Lucy's just giving me the finger. It rained heavily on campus yesterday evening, but not at home.
This did capture my eye in the forecast:
an uncapped environment with 1.9-2.1" PWATA
At least football practice finally begins next week...and the grand opening of Costco in town!
- Attachments
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- 7c687debe61f4b5aca1f1465811bbd05.jpg (16.16 KiB) Viewed 1355 times
Managed a half inch last weekend but flipped off by Lucy all week. Ground already cracked open again. Need several days in a row of and inch or two each time to finally get things sorted out.
Looks like somewhere near 2” is the heaviest. Lighter shades are less.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
433 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022
Fort Bend TX-Harris TX-
433 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022
...FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
* WHAT...Urban and small stream flooding caused by excessive
rainfall is expected.
* WHERE...A portion of southeast Texas, including the following
counties, Fort Bend and Harris.
* WHEN...Until 730 PM CDT.
* IMPACTS...Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas.
Locations with poor drainage due to construction, particularly
near I-69/US-59 and some low-water crossings may become impassable.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 431 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream
flooding. Overflowing poor drainage areas will cause minor
flooding in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain
have fallen.
- Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected
over the area. This additional rain will result in minor
flooding.
- Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Northeastern Sugar Land, Stafford, Bellaire, West University
Place, Greenway / Upper Kirby Area, Afton Oaks / River Oaks
Area, University Place, eastern Memorial Park, Neartown /
Montrose, Midtown Houston, Fourth Ward, Macgregor, Greater
Third Ward, Downtown Houston, Greater Eastwood, Second Ward,
Greater Fifth Ward, Meadows Place, Southside Place and
Gulfton.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
.7” of rain. All I can say is, it’s about time! First measurable rain in at least over 2 months at my house.