July 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Texaspirate11
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Sorry yall didnt get any rain...we did in Galveston and bay area!!!!
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
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davidiowx
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Pretty Frustrating, to say the least.
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tireman4
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Humble got a nice downpour of almost 20-25 minutes this morning. Really helped. I think more will be involved as daytime heating and unstableness in the area takes hold.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 011134
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
634 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

A messy TAF period ahead as showers and storms associated with an
approaching low pressure system move through the area this
morning. Overall, a mix of MVFR to VFR conditions will persist
this morning and afternoon although a temporary reduction to IFR
conditions may occur should any strong storms reduce visibility
over terminals. The best chance for stronger storms will be
confined to the coast, mainly impacting LBX/GLS. However, locally
heavy downpours are possible across the Houston metro throughout
the rest of the morning/early afternoon although coverage should
be a bit more sparse. Rainfall tapers off for the most part
overnight with showers redeveloping tomorrow morning, accompanied
by MVFR cigs. South to southeast winds at around 5-10 knots
persist during the day, with stronger gusts possible in any
thunderstorms that develop.

Cady

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 400 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022/...

.SHORT TERM [Through Saturday Night]...

Our main concern in the next 48 hours continues to be the impact
of what continues to be known as Invest 98L, which remains
defined but still weakly organized on satellite & via surface
observations as it approaches the SE TX coast. The National
Hurricane Center has indicated that the system now has a 0% chance
of developing into a tropical depression before moving ashore.
Regardless of its classification, the short term period will be
defined by the potential for locally heavy heavy rainfall along
the coast which at times could result in a risk for flash
flooding throughout this morning and into the afternoon.

Currently (3AM CDT), a band of heavy rain sits off of Matagorda
Bay while scattered showers/storms continue to push inland between
Sargent and High Island. Latest hires guidance shows shower and
storm coverage increasing in the next 3-6 hours with a band of
heavy rain setting up along the immediate SE TX coast around
sunrise and more scattered coverage inland.

Conditions remain conducive to support heavy rainfall throughout
the day today, with total PW values near or in excess of 2.25 in
and forecast soundings showing robust saturation and SBCAPE values
of around 1500-2000 J/kg. While a Flood Watch remains in effect
through 7PM CDT for locations along and south of the I-10
corridor, the greatest potential for flooding will remain along
the immediate coast (we continue to lean towards the HRRR solution
given its relatively good initialization this morning). As such,
we have pared back inland QPF numbers slightly with this forecast
package given latest CAM trends as well as a fairly sharp rainfall
gradient in the 00Z HREF QPF PMM from this evening. Through
tomorrow evening, coastal locations and locations SE of the
Houston metro can expect an additional 2-3" of rain with locally
higher totals possible associated with any stronger storms or
training storms. Given this, and with many of these locations
having picked up several inches of rain in the past few days,
increased soil moisture & decreased FFG have highlighted this area
for potential flood impacts associated through this morning and
afternoon. Inland, additional rainfall of around 1" across the
Houston metro and lesser amounts to the north/west is expected.
While the possibility of locally heavy rain cannot be ruled out
further inland (we continue to maintain the Flood Watch issued
yesterday afternoon), the greatest risk remains confined to the
coast.

Tomorrow, additional scattered shower/storm activity is expected
as the system continues to move inland, but the risk for locally
heavy rain will decrease. Expect clouds and rain to keep
temperatures in the low to mid 80s along and east of the I-45
corridor today with values in the upper 80s to low 90s to the
west. Slightly warmer tomorrow with less precipitation coverage,
with most locations seeing the low to mid 90s. Overnight lows
remain confined to the upper 70s inland and the low 80s along the
coast.

Cady


.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...

The first full week of July will feature the kind of weather one
might expect this time of year. Temperatures are expected to slowly
climb as the week progresses. This is due to a large, building
subtropical ridge of high pressure. 500 mb heights will easily
reach the 592-594 dm range and could be as high as 595-596 dm later
in the week. This pattern is expected to support a seasonably hot
temperature regime. Above average temps could pay us visit by the
later half of the week. Some inland locations may reach 100F by the
end of the forecast period. However, we are entering that part of
the summer where inland temperatures reaching 100F are not that
unusual. HI values are expected to increase as well. Current
projections show HI values averaging 103-106F over most of the CWA
this upcoming week.

If you are hoping for rainfall next week, then you may find yourself
disappointed. We cannot rule out isolated diurnal showers and
thunderstorms. ECMWF is showing a weak disturbance approaching from
the east that enhances 700 mb to 500 mb RH later in the forecast
period. This could enhance PoPs somewhat on Wednesday and Thursday.
However, the presence of the aforementioned subtropical ridge does
not provide any optimism for meaningful rainfall next week. At this
time, hot and dry continues to be the headline. Welcome to July!


Self


.MARINE...

The National Hurricane Center has lowered the probability of the low
pressure system off the SE Texas coastline developing into a
tropical depression to zero percent. Nevertheless, frequent gusts to
25kts with wave heights climbing to 5 to 6 feet has resulted in the
need for a Small Craft Advisory through noon today for the coastal
waters. Conditions will improve through the afternoon, but small
craft should continue to exercise caution through tonight. Heavy
rainfall will be likely in the near shore waters and in Galveston
Bay through this afternoon causing diminished visibilities and
locally higher gusts. The threat of heavy rain ends this evening,
but showers will linger through Saturday. The onshore winds and
rough seas will cause a high risk of rip currents through this
evening - though it won`t be good beach weather anyway. Quiet
weather returns on Sunday and will continue through at least midweek
as high pressure dominates.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 90 76 93 77 96 / 20 30 30 10 10
Houston (IAH) 85 77 91 78 93 / 60 40 30 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 85 82 87 83 90 / 90 40 30 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 2 PM CDT this
afternoon for the following zones: Brazoria
Islands...Galveston Island...Matagorda Islands.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM CDT this afternoon for the
following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston
Island...Matagorda Islands.

High Rip Current Risk through this evening for the following
zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...Galveston
Island...Matagorda Islands.

Flood Watch through this evening for the following zones:
Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...Chambers...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
Matagorda...Fort Bend...Galveston Island...Inland
Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland
Matagorda...Matagorda Islands...Southern Liberty...Wharton.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 2 PM CDT this
afternoon for the following zones: Galveston
Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM CDT this afternoon for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$
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jasons2k
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My 0.00” streak at the home base continues. My house sitters have been watering all week, again!!!

Great weather down here in Florida. Light winds. Almost no waves. Crystal clear water. Daily light show just after sunset with the east coast sea breeze coming across. Heaven…
Stratton20
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Ridge builds in all of next week and shuts off rain chances, can we just skip the rest of this summer? It sucks
Cpv17
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tireman4 wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 8:21 am Humble got a nice downpour of almost 20-25 minutes this morning. Really helped. I think more will be involved as daytime heating and unstableness in the area takes hold.
I got a 2 minute light sprinkle this morning :lol:
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tireman4
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Raining in the Gulfgate area with thunder...
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tireman4
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Radar
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 011735
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1235 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Challenging open to the forecast as tropical moisture slowly edges
away. MVFR to IFR CIGs in place at multiple sites plus TS between
HOU and IAH. These sites have an open line for only an hour or two
to handle this. Eventually, character around the area should be
for sky to scatter out while winds become southerly. Most TS
activity is offshore and to the east, but some ISO to SCT showers
and storms may pop up - try to cover this with VCs with lack of
confidence for impact at any specific point. Overnight, SCT to BKN
clouds at MVFR (or lower?) heights expected, lifting towards mid-
day. Confidence for storms tomorrow is fairly low, but enough to
add a VCTS to the extended at IAH.
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djmike
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Nearly 6-7” in Beaumont today and 12” in Port Arthur. My view many places this afternoon. Wish a lot more folks could have cashed in. The entire state desperately needs what we got here in Beaumont Port Arthur. Hopefully a pattern change comes soon for everyone.
81BF5D31-88A8-45BE-9D76-833555BF8406.jpeg
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Cromagnum
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Let's just skip this month and August altogether. Already know that both are going to suck.
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captainbarbossa19
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Cromagnum wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 2:28 pm Let's just skip this month and August altogether. Already know that both are going to suck.
The next 10 days actually look cooler to me than most of June.
Cpv17
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Possibly the second half of July the tropics will heat up. They look to be pretty dead the next couple weeks.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 012032
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
332 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022

.DISCUSSION...

With widespread rain shunted off into far Southeast Texas and
southwestern Louisiana, we have brought our flood watch to an end.
Rain is not over entirely, and we can expected isolated to
scattered showers and storms to continue into Saturday, and as a
few flood advisories today have shown, localized vulnerable spots
could still see some brief issues. However, an organized flooding
threat no longer exists. On the downside, most of the area has
also missed out on rainfall that would have been helpful in
denting drought conditions.

Looking forward, there is not really anything in the way of
assistance coming in the next week or so. Ridging builds in strong
over Texas, and typically hot July conditions take over. Some
isolated or widely scattered seabreeze storms could pop up from
day to day, but otherwise the ridge reigns supreme.


.SHORT TERM [Through Saturday Night]...

Well, on the one hand, we can look over at the Beaumont/Port
Arthur area and know that had yesterday`s MCV not shoved the prime
moisture feed to the east, that likely would have been Galveston
Bay instead. On the other hand, we can look at the rest of the
Sabine Valley and southwestern Louisiana, and see a widespread,
soaking rain that would have been really nice to help with our
drought conditions in the area. But regardless, the widespread
swath of rain from 95L has missed us, though some coastal
locations did see pick up some fair amount of rain still. But
there clearly is no more organized flooding threat, so the flood
watch has been canceled.

That said, lingering favorable conditions and a good amount of
moisture still exist over the area, even if the major axis of
rainfall is to our east. We can still expect isolated to scattered
storms to crop up through the afternoon, and after a bit of a lull
in the early part of the night, a return late tonight and into
tomorrow. Eventually, the upper disturbance associated with 95L
will move far enough north that rain potential will come to an
end, and we (LONG TERM SPOILER ALERT!) begin our transition to a
likely drier scenario for much of next week.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...

Drier and warmer conditions are the main weather stories in the
extended. Upper-level ridge axis will be centered over the Plains by
Sunday providing more subsidence. At the sfc, a southerly warm and
humid airmass will continue to filter in thanks to a sfc high over
the eastern Gulf. By the 4th of July, hot and dry weather is
anticipated as subsidence remains strong and PWATs drop below 1.7
inches. Daytime temperatures will climb into the upper 90s to around
100. With sfc dewpoints mainly in the mid 70s, heat index values
could reach advisory levels at most locations.

Ridging aloft will continue to dominate the weather pattern
throughout the remainder of the workweek, leading to relatively
quiet and warm conditions. With PWATs nearing 1.5-1.7 inches through
most of the week, rain/storm chances will be minimal. A few isolated
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out in the afternoon each day with
daytime heating and weak seabreeze interaction. Deterministic models
suggest temperatures into the 23 to 25 degC range across our
northern counties after Tuesday. In fact, these locations are close
to the 90th percentile of climatology for both NAEFS and GEFS
ensemble means. In simple words, it`s gonna be hot with
temperatures 4 to 10 degrees above normal. Highs will generally be
from the upper 90s to 100 deg north of I-10 and from the upper
80s to mid 90s south.

&&

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Challenging open to the forecast as tropical moisture slowly edges
away. MVFR to IFR CIGs in place at multiple sites plus TS between
HOU and IAH. These sites have an open line for only an hour or two
to handle this. Eventually, character around the area should be
for sky to scatter out while winds become southerly. Most TS
activity is offshore and to the east, but some ISO to SCT showers
and storms may pop up - try to cover this with VCs with lack of
confidence for impact at any specific point. Overnight, SCT to BKN
clouds at MVFR (or lower?) heights expected, lifting towards mid-
day. Confidence for storms tomorrow is fairly low, but enough to
add a VCTS to the extended at IAH.

&&

.MARINE...

The threat for moderate to heavy rain and frequent lightning will
gradually diminish through early this evening. However, isolated to
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will again be possible
late tonight into Saturday morning, mainly around Galveston Bay and
for the coastal waters from Freeport to High Island. Conditions will
gradually improve by Saturday with light onshore winds and low seas
through most of the week as high pressure dominates over the
region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 76 94 77 98 77 / 20 30 0 10 0
Houston (IAH) 77 92 78 95 78 / 30 30 0 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 82 87 83 91 83 / 40 40 10 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria
Islands...Galveston Island...Matagorda Islands.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 PM CDT this evening
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION...05
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...05
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captainbarbossa19
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I was thinking that this year was the second driest year so far for my area, but I was wrong. I just checked the climate summary at Jack Brooks Airport, and it's actually the 7th driest first-half after the June report came out. I think for others though, it might be #2 behind 2011. I know it was for Lake Charles.

https://www.weather.gov/source/lch/climate/bptann22.txt
https://www.weather.gov/source/lch/climate/lchann22.txt
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jasons2k
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Just checked the radar again - what a joke.
TexasBreeze
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Hard to believe Monday ended up being the best shot of rain for the week. Even then there were still a bunch of zeros. It sure is difficult to end up on the east side of a disturbance/ system when we needed it most.
Last edited by TexasBreeze on Fri Jul 01, 2022 5:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Stratton20
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And unfortunately I dont see any real opportunities for rain in the next 7-10 days, death ridge dominates yet again🤮🤮
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DoctorMu
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Cromagnum wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 2:28 pm Let's just skip this month and August altogether. Already know that both are going to suck.

Amen. Just skip to football season.
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