July 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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MontgomeryCoWx
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DoctorMu wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 5:11 pm
Cromagnum wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 2:28 pm Let's just skip this month and August altogether. Already know that both are going to suck.

Amen. Just skip to football season.
A-FRICKIN-MEN
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djmike
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70% chance of rain and showers Tomorrow for Beaumont according to KFDM and KBMT and NWS at 60%. I cant believe Im saying this but I dont want anymore right now. Hopefully you guys in Houston will be the winners of this percentage.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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jasons2k
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There had been a 70% chance of rain tomorrow and now it’s down to 30%.

If you had asked me a week ago if we would be getting rain this week I would have said “yes, finally, it looks like a sure thing”

A week TC or low landfalling WEST of here was supposed to finally deliver. Nope, just another Lucy.
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Ptarmigan
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Cromagnum wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 2:28 pm Let's just skip this month and August altogether. Already know that both are going to suck.
I will take the cooler weather any day. 8-)
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Honestly, yeah. I'm tired of Beaumont/Louisiana constantly cashing in on these floods: there, I said it.

It honestly drives one crazy, as if its some magical wall right at the state line. It would at least make sense if it was some sort of mountainous rain shadow — but no, it's pure flat land, meaning it literally makes no physical sense why Houston keeps losing out these rain battles with Beaumont.

I'm just sick and tired of this crap year-after-year. It felt a lot easier to get rain in the 2000s compared to the 2010s (as well as 2020s so far).
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jasons2k wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 9:50 am My 0.00” streak at the home base continues. My house sitters have been watering all week, again!!!

Great weather down here in Florida. Light winds. Almost no waves. Crystal clear water. Daily light show just after sunset with the east coast sea breeze coming across. Heaven…
Definitely heavenly.

That said, I think that there are other factors beyond ridging that allows Florida to get more rain than Texas during summer. The reason I say that is because I've seen model run after run, as well as radars, and Florida will have sea-breeze rainstorms show up even when H5 heights are as high as 594, whereas even the slightest hint of ridging over Texas (even weak 588 or 591) is enough to shut down everything.
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jasons2k wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 6:32 pm There had been a 70% chance of rain tomorrow and now it’s down to 30%.

If you had asked me a week ago if we would be getting rain this week I would have said “yes, finally, it looks like a sure thing”

A week TC or low landfalling WEST of here was supposed to finally deliver. Nope, just another Lucy.
Would landfalling even have mattered, given that it never reached depression status?
user:null
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On a brighter note, the 18z features a MUCH better pattern evolution than all the previous runs for today — keeps the worst heat away from Texas, and the pattern set-up as far as ridge location is more ideal in ensuring better moisture over Texas (i.e. for sea-breeze storms and more).
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DoctorMu
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If you are also parched and thinking about relief...this one's for you.
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Stratton20
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Man I hope we get some more of that fun stuff this winter, beats this miserable heat wave any day😆😆
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MontgomeryCoWx
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DoctorMu wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 10:18 pm If you are also parched and thinking about relief...this one's for you.
Bless you sir. I love where your head is at. You should come out to a tailgate this year for A&M games. We are at Reed Arena. The 8 pm Miami kickoff will be a doozy.
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Kingwood32
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[/b]
DoctorMu wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 10:18 pm If you are also parched and thinking about relief...this one's for you.
That was probably north of hwy 105...
user:null
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Those photos upthread were refreshing to see. Not only in context of the heat as mentioned, but also because it reminds the novelty was still enjoyed by many. In any other non-wx website, bringing up the event immediately spirals down to political baggage of regarding the energy grid debacle, how much "they hate Texas", etc.
davidiowx
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Rain chances for today ranged from 70% to 30% and now are at 50%. LoL.

0.00” so far and not expecting that to change today. Happy 4th everyone!
Stratton20
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Ensembles are brutal for rain over the next 10 days , after the mega bust event im not optimistic about believing anything rain related that the operational models show anytime soon if at all
Cromagnum
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Some streamers coming out of the southwest right now. But yeah, unless I see it visibly raining I put zero faith in models now.
davidiowx
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I got a tenth of an inch about 30 min ago! Can’t believe it. Just enough to get the sprinklers going. :lol:
art3
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Been pouring here in Westbury for about 30 minutes!
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jasons2k
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user:null wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 7:28 pm
jasons2k wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 9:50 am My 0.00” streak at the home base continues. My house sitters have been watering all week, again!!!

Great weather down here in Florida. Light winds. Almost no waves. Crystal clear water. Daily light show just after sunset with the east coast sea breeze coming across. Heaven…
Definitely heavenly.

That said, I think that there are other factors beyond ridging that allows Florida to get more rain than Texas during summer. The reason I say that is because I've seen model run after run, as well as radars, and Florida will have sea-breeze rainstorms show up even when H5 heights are as high as 594, whereas even the slightest hint of ridging over Texas (even weak 588 or 591) is enough to shut down everything.
A completely moist, tropical air column tips the scale.

You breath too hard in Florida and a thunderstorm will pop-up with ease, just for the heck of it.

You breathe too hard around here and it becomes a killer outflow that shuts down everything.
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jasons2k
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Cromagnum wrote: Sat Jul 02, 2022 12:04 pm Some streamers coming out of the southwest right now. But yeah, unless I see it visibly raining I put zero faith in models now.
I keep seeing them setup in bands to the SW and as they move up towards the house they just fall apart. It’s like a curse. Complete opposite of anywhere east of Houston.
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