July 2022

[tireman4]

Will it be wet? Will it be dry? Stay tuned

[captainbarbossa19]

Will it be wet? Will it be dry? Stay tuned

Since June has been dry so far, historically that would indicate a wetter July. Usually either June is wet or July. Sometimes, both are dry, but that is less common.

[Stratton20]

captainbarbossa19 their is some hope on the 18z GFS, it does start to weaken the death ridge by next weekend, perheps giving us a break from this heatwave

[CrashTestDummy]

Will it be wet? Will it be dry? Stay tuned

Since June has been dry so far, historically that would indicate a wetter July. Usually either June is wet or July. Sometimes, both are dry, but that is less common.

TV Mets are saying that it's looking like a return to 'more normal' summertime weather, with 20-30% chance of afternoon showers and t-storms from daytime warming. Fingers crossed.

[mcheer23]

CMC throws a tropical storm toward TX/LA in 10 days. Unlikely, but something to watch.

[don]

Looks like we may already have another system to watch as we enter July. The GFS has been bringing the tropical wave behind PTC 2 into the western Gulf FWIW.

[Stratton20]

Yep GFS has been hinting at that, we will see if any other models start showing that wave getting into the gom

[Cpv17]

I really don’t see much on the GFS..

[Stratton20]

Regardless of any tropical mischief the 12z GFS keeps at least a daily chance (20-30%) of showers/storms beyond this week with potentially another back door front around 9 days from now with another wet pattern setting up potentially

[don]

I really don’t see much on the GFS..

The GFS was showing the wave becoming a TC for a few runs.It backed off on that with today's runs though.

[Texaspirate11]

Sorry yall didnt get any rain...we did in Galveston and bay area!!!!

[davidiowx]

Pretty Frustrating, to say the least.

[tireman4]

Humble got a nice downpour of almost 20-25 minutes this morning. Really helped. I think more will be involved as daytime heating and unstableness in the area takes hold.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 011134
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
634 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

A messy TAF period ahead as showers and storms associated with an
approaching low pressure system move through the area this
morning. Overall, a mix of MVFR to VFR conditions will persist
this morning and afternoon although a temporary reduction to IFR
conditions may occur should any strong storms reduce visibility
over terminals. The best chance for stronger storms will be
confined to the coast, mainly impacting LBX/GLS. However, locally
heavy downpours are possible across the Houston metro throughout
the rest of the morning/early afternoon although coverage should
be a bit more sparse. Rainfall tapers off for the most part
overnight with showers redeveloping tomorrow morning, accompanied
by MVFR cigs. South to southeast winds at around 5-10 knots
persist during the day, with stronger gusts possible in any
thunderstorms that develop.

Cady

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 400 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022/...

.SHORT TERM [Through Saturday Night]...

Our main concern in the next 48 hours continues to be the impact
of what continues to be known as Invest 98L, which remains
defined but still weakly organized on satellite & via surface
observations as it approaches the SE TX coast. The National
Hurricane Center has indicated that the system now has a 0% chance
of developing into a tropical depression before moving ashore.
Regardless of its classification, the short term period will be
defined by the potential for locally heavy heavy rainfall along
the coast which at times could result in a risk for flash
flooding throughout this morning and into the afternoon.

Currently (3AM CDT), a band of heavy rain sits off of Matagorda
Bay while scattered showers/storms continue to push inland between
Sargent and High Island. Latest hires guidance shows shower and
storm coverage increasing in the next 3-6 hours with a band of
heavy rain setting up along the immediate SE TX coast around
sunrise and more scattered coverage inland.

Conditions remain conducive to support heavy rainfall throughout
the day today, with total PW values near or in excess of 2.25 in
and forecast soundings showing robust saturation and SBCAPE values
of around 1500-2000 J/kg. While a Flood Watch remains in effect
through 7PM CDT for locations along and south of the I-10
corridor, the greatest potential for flooding will remain along
the immediate coast (we continue to lean towards the HRRR solution
given its relatively good initialization this morning). As such,
we have pared back inland QPF numbers slightly with this forecast
package given latest CAM trends as well as a fairly sharp rainfall
gradient in the 00Z HREF QPF PMM from this evening. Through
tomorrow evening, coastal locations and locations SE of the
Houston metro can expect an additional 2-3" of rain with locally
higher totals possible associated with any stronger storms or
training storms. Given this, and with many of these locations
having picked up several inches of rain in the past few days,
increased soil moisture & decreased FFG have highlighted this area
for potential flood impacts associated through this morning and
afternoon. Inland, additional rainfall of around 1" across the
Houston metro and lesser amounts to the north/west is expected.
While the possibility of locally heavy rain cannot be ruled out
further inland (we continue to maintain the Flood Watch issued
yesterday afternoon), the greatest risk remains confined to the
coast.

Tomorrow, additional scattered shower/storm activity is expected
as the system continues to move inland, but the risk for locally
heavy rain will decrease. Expect clouds and rain to keep
temperatures in the low to mid 80s along and east of the I-45
corridor today with values in the upper 80s to low 90s to the
west. Slightly warmer tomorrow with less precipitation coverage,
with most locations seeing the low to mid 90s. Overnight lows
remain confined to the upper 70s inland and the low 80s along the
coast.

Cady


.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...

The first full week of July will feature the kind of weather one
might expect this time of year. Temperatures are expected to slowly
climb as the week progresses. This is due to a large, building
subtropical ridge of high pressure. 500 mb heights will easily
reach the 592-594 dm range and could be as high as 595-596 dm later
in the week. This pattern is expected to support a seasonably hot
temperature regime. Above average temps could pay us visit by the
later half of the week. Some inland locations may reach 100F by the
end of the forecast period. However, we are entering that part of
the summer where inland temperatures reaching 100F are not that
unusual. HI values are expected to increase as well. Current
projections show HI values averaging 103-106F over most of the CWA
this upcoming week.

If you are hoping for rainfall next week, then you may find yourself
disappointed. We cannot rule out isolated diurnal showers and
thunderstorms. ECMWF is showing a weak disturbance approaching from
the east that enhances 700 mb to 500 mb RH later in the forecast
period. This could enhance PoPs somewhat on Wednesday and Thursday.
However, the presence of the aforementioned subtropical ridge does
not provide any optimism for meaningful rainfall next week. At this
time, hot and dry continues to be the headline. Welcome to July!


Self


.MARINE...

The National Hurricane Center has lowered the probability of the low
pressure system off the SE Texas coastline developing into a
tropical depression to zero percent. Nevertheless, frequent gusts to
25kts with wave heights climbing to 5 to 6 feet has resulted in the
need for a Small Craft Advisory through noon today for the coastal
waters. Conditions will improve through the afternoon, but small
craft should continue to exercise caution through tonight. Heavy
rainfall will be likely in the near shore waters and in Galveston
Bay through this afternoon causing diminished visibilities and
locally higher gusts. The threat of heavy rain ends this evening,
but showers will linger through Saturday. The onshore winds and
rough seas will cause a high risk of rip currents through this
evening - though it won`t be good beach weather anyway. Quiet
weather returns on Sunday and will continue through at least midweek
as high pressure dominates.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 90 76 93 77 96 / 20 30 30 10 10
Houston (IAH) 85 77 91 78 93 / 60 40 30 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 85 82 87 83 90 / 90 40 30 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 2 PM CDT this
afternoon for the following zones: Brazoria
Islands...Galveston Island...Matagorda Islands.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM CDT this afternoon for the
following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston
Island...Matagorda Islands.

High Rip Current Risk through this evening for the following
zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...Galveston
Island...Matagorda Islands.

Flood Watch through this evening for the following zones:
Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...Chambers...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
Matagorda...Fort Bend...Galveston Island...Inland
Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland
Matagorda...Matagorda Islands...Southern Liberty...Wharton.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 2 PM CDT this
afternoon for the following zones: Galveston
Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM CDT this afternoon for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

[jasons2k]

My 0.00” streak at the home base continues. My house sitters have been watering all week, again!!!

Great weather down here in Florida. Light winds. Almost no waves. Crystal clear water. Daily light show just after sunset with the east coast sea breeze coming across. Heaven…

[Stratton20]

Ridge builds in all of next week and shuts off rain chances, can we just skip the rest of this summer? It sucks

[Cpv17]

Humble got a nice downpour of almost 20-25 minutes this morning. Really helped. I think more will be involved as daytime heating and unstableness in the area takes hold.

I got a 2 minute light sprinkle this morning

[tireman4]

Raining in the Gulfgate area with thunder...

[tireman4]

Radar

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 011735
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1235 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Challenging open to the forecast as tropical moisture slowly edges
away. MVFR to IFR CIGs in place at multiple sites plus TS between
HOU and IAH. These sites have an open line for only an hour or two
to handle this. Eventually, character around the area should be
for sky to scatter out while winds become southerly. Most TS
activity is offshore and to the east, but some ISO to SCT showers
and storms may pop up - try to cover this with VCs with lack of
confidence for impact at any specific point. Overnight, SCT to BKN
clouds at MVFR (or lower?) heights expected, lifting towards mid-
day. Confidence for storms tomorrow is fairly low, but enough to
add a VCTS to the extended at IAH.