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Re: July 2022
Posted: Sun Jul 31, 2022 5:10 pm
by djmike
Well today was a whole lot of nothing. For anyone. Looks to be a better chance Monday with 50% here in Beaumont. QPF Update map looks promising for SETX for the next 7. Best I’ve seen in months. Includes much of Texas actually.
Re: July 2022
Posted: Sun Jul 31, 2022 5:26 pm
by Stratton20
Re: July 2022
Posted: Sun Jul 31, 2022 6:08 pm
by user:null
I've never been entirely sure if the rainfall maxes seen out in the SW US/NW Mexico are focused specifically in elevated/mountain areas (as opposed to overspreading the entire area). If so, then Texas donut hole is merely an illusion.
Re: July 2022
Posted: Sun Jul 31, 2022 7:10 pm
by DoctorMu
srainhoutx wrote: ↑Sat Jul 30, 2022 8:00 pm
I know you SE TX folk are needing a bunch of rain, the Smoky Mountains are living up to its name after a nice long thundershower. Fall is just around the corner and fingers crossed cooler air and much needed rainfall comes your way!
haha Wish I were there. No sprinklers running. A/C barely running. Green grass and plants!
Re: July 2022
Posted: Sun Jul 31, 2022 7:27 pm
by Cpv17
As long as the EPAC remains active, we won’t have to really worry about a thing in the Atlantic basin. I do believe during the 11th through 20th timeframe we will see Danielle form though.
Re: July 2022
Posted: Sun Jul 31, 2022 7:32 pm
by Stratton20
Cpv17 the EPAC will likely begin to slow down in the next 3 weeks or so, i expect the atlantic will begin to get active around the 15th and beyond, we could really use a depression or tropical storm here, obviously dont want a hurricane though, this quiet stretch is going to fool a lot of folks
Re: July 2022
Posted: Sun Jul 31, 2022 7:48 pm
by Cpv17
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 31, 2022 7:32 pm
Cpv17 the EPAC will likely begin to slow down in the next 3 weeks or so, i expect the atlantic will begin to get active around the 15th and beyond, we could really use a depression or tropical storm here, obviously dont want a hurricane though, this quiet stretch is going to fool a lot of folks
This is the most bored I’ve been with the weather since 2011. Just an unbelievably stubborn pattern we’re in. F this La Niña!!
Re: July 2022
Posted: Sun Jul 31, 2022 7:51 pm
by DoctorMu
The smallest donut hole I could find on the models.
Re: July 2022
Posted: Sun Jul 31, 2022 7:56 pm
by DoctorMu
FWIW, NWS is still sticking to a south Texas weak tropical system. Very outside chance of rain for us.
Re: July 2022
Posted: Sun Jul 31, 2022 8:00 pm
by Stratton20
Cpv17 I couldnt agree more! Every time I look at the models, its like
, absolutely nothing, this la nina sucks for sure
Re: July 2022
Posted: Sun Jul 31, 2022 8:03 pm
by Stratton20
DoctorMu weak tropical system? I dont see any indications of a tropical system in the next 6-10 days in any of the models
Re: July 2022
Posted: Sun Jul 31, 2022 8:59 pm
by DoctorMu
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 31, 2022 8:03 pm
DoctorMu weak tropical system? I dont see any indications of a tropical system in the next 6-10 days in any of the models
The Ensembles pick it up late in the 10 day period (Aug 9/10). We'll see.
GFS send a tropical wave into LA after the 10th.
Aug 8 is the peak of heat and dryness/lack of rain in CLL. We're not over the hump yet. Burn bans until further notice.
Re: July 2022
Posted: Sun Jul 31, 2022 9:02 pm
by Stratton20
DoctorMu ah i guess I missed that, man we just need some way to get some rain, its amazing how im still seeing so much green around me despite only picking up about a quarter inch of rain since June 1st
Re: July 2022
Posted: Sun Jul 31, 2022 9:39 pm
by Cpv17
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 31, 2022 9:02 pm
DoctorMu ah i guess I missed that, man we just need some way to get some rain, its amazing how im still seeing so much green around me despite only picking up about a quarter inch of rain since June 1st
This week, with the exception of Wednesday, there will be a 30-40% chance of rain. Looks like slightly less chances up y’all’s way though. Too far from the Gulf.
Re: July 2022
Posted: Mon Aug 01, 2022 12:24 am
by Stratton20
Long range 00z GFS has a pretty decent front around the 12/13th, too bad its long range lol
Re: July 2022
Posted: Mon Aug 01, 2022 12:38 pm
by Cromagnum
As usual. Good stuff is coming and it evaporates as soon as it gets close.
Re: July 2022
Posted: Mon Aug 01, 2022 4:15 pm
by DoctorMu
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 31, 2022 9:39 pm
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 31, 2022 9:02 pm
DoctorMu ah i guess I missed that, man we just need some way to get some rain, its amazing how im still seeing so much green around me despite only picking up about a quarter inch of rain since June 1st
This week, with the exception of Wednesday, there will be a 30-40% chance of rain. Looks like slightly less chances up y’all’s way though. Too far from the Gulf.
The seabreeze skipped away to our east. Grimes County sometimes sees rain with the seabreeze. We're just a bit too far north and west.
The Fall semester begins a week early this year. Does that mean our beginning of the school year flood/rain come early? Stay tuned.
Re: July 2022
Posted: Mon Aug 01, 2022 5:00 pm
by Stratton20
Little bit of a weak signal showing up on the 12z EPS for potential tropical mischief in the GOM next week fwiw
Re: July 2022
Posted: Mon Aug 01, 2022 5:59 pm
by djmike
Another whole lot of nothin day today. Man I cant wait till we see that first 100% chance of coverage. All day light to moderate. Wonder when the last 100% was forecasted. Hopefully Aug will flip.
Re: July 2022
Posted: Mon Aug 01, 2022 6:00 pm
by Cpv17
djmike wrote: ↑Mon Aug 01, 2022 5:59 pm
Another whole lot of nothin day today. Man I cant wait till we see that first 100% chance of coverage. All day light to moderate. Wonder when the last 100% was forecasted. Hopefully Aug will flip.
Things are gonna change. Just gotta be patient.
