Pas_Bon wrote: ↑Thu Aug 04, 2022 6:54 am
I don’t want to jinx it, but seeing >40% daily rain chances every day for the next 10 days tells me there will be SOMETHING out of it. I’ve basically lived my entirety of existence (~43 years) south of I-10….from South Louisiana to League City. I have never experienced a Summer as searing hot and brutally dry as this one and I am ready for this %#^-show to be over with.
I am guessing you weren't here in 2011? That was way worse than this year in my opinion.. Here is a gif of the drought monitor for every week in 2011..
Upper level ridge of high pressure over the SW US will begin to shift northward allowing a mid level trough over coastal Louisiana to move westward.
Upcoming upper air pattern will usher in some of the best rain chances the area has seen in a long while. As the near semi-permanent upper ridge over the SW US moves to our north over the next few days, a mid level low/trough over coastal LA will move westward and into the upper TX coast Friday/Saturday. This feature has produced numerous slow moving showers and thunderstorms over southern LA the last few days with copious rainfall amounts. Moisture begins to increase from the east this afternoon and when combined with heating, showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the sea/bay breeze boundaries especially in Chambers, Galveston, SE Harris, and Liberty Counties. Subsidence aloft still is in place to the north and west so these storms likely wont survive into the far inland areas.
Mid level trough/low moves toward the Sabine River area on Friday and moisture will greatly increase over SE TX. PWS increase into the 2.0-2.3 range and the forecast soundings show an increasingly saturated profile. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop near the coast and offshore before/near daybreak and then begin to move inland with heating. Given the tropical air mass flowing into the region it will not take much heating (upper 80’s/low 90’s) to get storms going. Additionally, with the moisture profile in place on Friday, rainfall rates of 1-3 inches per an hour will be possible. Area remains in a favorable tropical air mass and eastern flank of mid level trough/low as it moves westward on Saturday and expect another active day of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms near the coast in the morning and spreading inland through the day.
There is a decent chance that most areas will see some rainfall over the next 48 hours and this will greatly help mitigate the ongoing fire weather issues across the region.
Rain chances will continue into next week with lingering favorable moisture levels and the ridge having backed away from the area, so expect a decently active seabreeze each afternoon. Several global models show a strong shortwave moving through the upper Midwest early to mid next week and a frontal boundary dropping south into SE TX and even the northern Gulf by the middle of next week. It would be rare for a front to make it this far south this time of year, but even if it can get close this would help keep rain chances going well into the middle of next week. I have my doubts this front makes it as far south as the models indicate.
Fire Weather:
The last few days have featured numerous fire starts and rapid spread across the state with gusty winds and low humidity and background state critically dry vegetation. 315 acre grass fire yesterday afternoon near Damon (Brazoria County) continues to indicate the critical fuel load situation across the region. We desperately need widespread wetting rainfall to help mitigate the ongoing fire weather conditions. Luckily, with increasing moisture today, humidity values likely will not mix out as much this afternoon (closer to 40-50%) instead of the 25-35% the last few days. Additionally, winds will not be as gusty as previous days, but still in the 10-15mph range by mid to late afternoon.
The following below is some of the average KBD Values for counties in SE TX:
Values of 550 tend to indicate critical fire conditions and values over 700 severe. This index can also be used as a soil moisture determination with values of 100=1 inch below the soil surface is completely void of moisture. A value of 700 would indicate there is no moisture in the soil in the top 7 inches below the surface. Medium and large fuels (brush and trees) begin to exhibit stress when values exceed 600 for an extended period of time.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
649 AM CDT Thu Aug 4 2022
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR conditions will generally prevail through the duration of the
TAF period, with south winds shifting to the southeast and
becoming gustier behind the advancing sea breeze this afternoon.
A few isolated showers and storms will be possible this afternoon,
but coverage will remain limited. More widespread rainfall
coverage is expected tomorrow, which may be accompanied by
reduced cigs/vis.
Cady
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 336 AM CDT Thu Aug 4 2022/...
.SHORT TERM [Today Through Friday Night]...
While a pattern shift is on the way tomorrow as a midlevel
low/inverted trough continues to push into the Central/Western Gulf,
we have one more day of weather characterized mostly by hot
temperatures. The synoptic pattern, for the time being, remains
dominated by broad upper ridging centered to our northwest. At the
surface, high pressure over the Eastern Gulf and lower pressures
over the TX panhandle have produced a gradually tightening pressure
gradient over the past couple of days, which continues to promote
relatively efficient low-level moisture transport into SE TX. This,
combined with the approach of the aforementioned inverted trough,
will allow for total PWs to rise into the 2.0 in range over the
course of today and this evening. Given guidance agreement in
depicting increasing 500mb vorticity ahead of the approach of the
inverted trough later today, conditions should become more favorable
for the development of scattered showers and storms, particularly in
the vicinity of Galveston Bay. As such, have maintained
approximately 20% PoPs in the forecast this afternoon and evening.
Heat continues to be a concern, particularly across the Brazos
Valley and across the northern zones. Maximum temperatures look to
again approach or potentially exceed 103 this afternoon, which has
prompted yet another Heat Advisory for roughly the northern third of
the area this afternoon and early evening. As always, taking
protective actions such as hydration and avoiding strenuous activity
during the hottest parts of the day remain important. Overnight lows
again settle into the upper 70s inland and the lower 80s along the
coast.
Precipitation coverage will increase significantly on Friday as the
aforementioned upper low pushes into the Western Gulf while an upper
shortwave traverses the prevailing ridge. Robust low-level moisture
availability and increased shortwave energy at 500mb will provide
most of the area with measurable precipitation, with activity
developing along the coast in the morning and expanding inland as
the day progresses. Precipitation chances remain highest (50-70%)
near the coast but all locations in SE TX have values of 30% or
higher during the day on Friday. Rainfall totals should amount to
0.5" or less for most locations, but a few locally heavy downpours
and thus higher amounts depending on the mesoscale evolution of the
day cannot be ruled out. Increased rainfall and cloud cover will
mitigate high temperatures, with the northern zones in the mid/upper
90s, the metro area in the lower/mid 90s, and the coast in the upper
80s.
Cady
.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...
With PVA from the inverted upper level trough persisting into
Saturday and PW values remaining in the 1.8"-2.1" range (75th
percentile is 2.02"), rain chances remain elevated especially for
locations south of I-10. Going into Sunday, the bulk of the
instability pushes out to the west, but we`ll have enough
lingering moisture for showers/storms to develop along the sea
breeze in the afternoon hours. You can get used to that pattern
through midweek. The good thing about the elevated rain chances
over the weekend is that temperatures will be close to normal!
After numerous periods with well above normal temperatures over
the past few months, we`ll take these breaks when we can get em.
On Saturday, high temperatures range from the low to mid 90s from
the coast through the Houston metro area and mid to upper 90s for
locations north of I-10.
Temperatures gradually increase each day through midweek as upper
level ridging begins to build back in. Interestingly enough, models
are currently in consensus on the core of the upper level ridge
remaining well north and west of Southeast TX with the upper level
high remaining near or north of the Four Corners. This may spare us
from seeing widespread well above normal temperatures again if
this occurs, but keep in mind that things can change since this is
about 5-6 days out. I`m onboard with this solution though, I want
to break this streak of near record/record breaking months as
much as y`all do. Monday/Tuesday will feature daily chances for
afternoon showers/storms along the sea breeze, but things get a
bit more interesting on Wednesday.
GFS/ECMWF depict an upper level trough digging down into the Upper
Midwest downstream of the upper level ridge with a weak cold front
pushing into the central CONUS. We`re not looking at a F☈OPA in
Southeast TX (give it a couple more months), but there will be a
surge of moisture moving in from the north as a result of
convergence along the boundary. PW values of 2.0"+ moves in
beginning on Wednesday along with sufficient PVA, so we`re looking
at another decent chance of showers/storms midweek. To go along with
those elevated rain chances is another round of near normal
temperatures. Let`s not jinx it...but I`m liking the trends in
August so far!
Batiste
.MARINE...
Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will prevail into next
week. At times, wind speeds may increase enough overnight to
briefly reach Caution flag criteria. Seas will remain quiet through
next week varying between 2 to 4 feet. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms increase on Friday and over the weekend as an upper
level disturbance moves through the area. Rain chances begin to
decrease early next week, but daily afternoon showers and
thunderstorms remain possible.
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones:
Brazos...Burleson...Grimes...Houston...Madison...Trinity...Walker...Washington.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 AM CDT this morning
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
from 20 to 60 NM.
jasons2k wrote: ↑Thu Aug 04, 2022 2:12 pm
I wonder whatever happed to Extremeweatherguy.
He moved to Oklahoma to go to school, made a couple more posts, and then disappeared….
On a side not TWC has inserted 50% chance of rain for later today. Yeah I’ll believe it’ll rain when my lawn is wet. Haha.
It looks more promising tomorrow imo. The WPC even has a marginal risk of excessive rain mainly for coastal regions, but I will take any rain at this point.
jasons2k wrote: ↑Thu Aug 04, 2022 2:12 pm
I wonder whatever happed to Extremeweatherguy.
He moved to Oklahoma to go to school, made a couple more posts, and then disappeared….
On a side not TWC has inserted 50% chance of rain for later today. Yeah I’ll believe it’ll rain when my lawn is wet. Haha.
It looks more promising tomorrow imo. The WPC even has a marginal risk of excessive rain mainly for coastal regions, but I will take any rain at this point.
I have a sinking feeling the coast is going to rob us, just like last week’s “moisture surge”
jasons2k wrote: ↑Thu Aug 04, 2022 2:12 pm
I wonder whatever happed to Extremeweatherguy.
He moved to Oklahoma to go to school, made a couple more posts, and then disappeared….
On a side not TWC has inserted 50% chance of rain for later today. Yeah I’ll believe it’ll rain when my lawn is wet. Haha.
It looks more promising tomorrow imo. The WPC even has a marginal risk of excessive rain mainly for coastal regions, but I will take any rain at this point.
I have a sinking feeling the coast is going to rob us, just like last week’s “moisture surge”
One difference this time though is that there should be a lot more moisture lingering after tomorrow unlike last time. Part of the problem we are experiencing is that we are not getting multiple high chance of rain days this summer. During drought, it's critical to have a period of wet weather versus a day, or it is less likely that much rain will fall unfortunately.
Cromagnum wrote: ↑Thu Aug 04, 2022 9:12 pm
I hope it pours and pours tomorrow.
I agree! I went out to my farm today and discovered I have two trees dying now from the drought. One was about 15 feet tall too. It's starting to get really rough.
There have been way too many Lucy's this year for me to get much hopes up yet, but it's at least nice to look at the radar and see something in our general vicinity instead of another day of watching showers stream up from the Gulf to Baton Rouge/Lafayette.
I’m now in D3. The tree die-off is in full force up here. Lots of dead, young trees all along the easement of I-45….aka lots of our tax dollars just got wasted.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
349 AM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022
.SHORT TERM [Through Saturday Night]...
At the time of writing (3 AM CDT), our latest radar imagery shows
initial development of scattered showers and storms approximately
40mi southeast of Galveston Island. Rainfall will be the main story
across the area today, largely in part to the approach of a midlevel
inverted trough which continues to advance towards the Western Gulf.
With total PWs rising to the vicinity of 2.0 in area-wide today and
the aforementioned trough providing ample PVA, we should see fairly
widespread coverage of showers and storms as the day goes on.
Initial development is expected to occur along the coast over the
next few hours, expanding gradually further inland over the course
of the morning and afternoon. Further adding to the rainfall chances
(particularly for areas north of the Houston metro) will be the
approach of a weak shortwave from the northeast, advancing
southwestward around the base of the prevailing midlevel ridge over
the Central Plains. In terms of rainfall amounts, widespread totals
of around 0.5-1" are expected along the coast with values tapering
off further northward. While a widespread flooding concern is not
anticipated, some locally heavy downpours associated with any strong
storms that develop may produce isolated higher rainfall amounts,
particularly close to the coast. As such, locations roughly along
and south of the I-10 corridor remain within a Marginal Risk for
excessive rainfall in WPC`s latest analysis.
Increased cloud cover and precipitation will work to mitigate the
excessively warm temperatures of late, with highs this afternoon
reaching only the upper 80s to low 90s along and south of I-10. The
northern/northwestern zones may still see a few locations above 100
given expected less precipitation and cloud coverage, but highs a
few degrees lower than recent days are still anticipated. Overnight
lows remain in the upper 70s to low 80s area wide.
With ample moisture remaining in place on Saturday and midlevel
PVA associated with the departing midlevel trough still a factor,
another round of showers and storms is expected on Saturday with
initial development occuring along the coast and coverage
expanding inland during the afternoon with the developing sea/bay
breezes. Have maintained PoP forecast of 40-60 percent given the
favorable environment remaining in place and fairly widespread
coverage across 00Z HREF members. Similar high/low temperatures to
Friday are expected given continued cloud cover and rainfall.
Cady
.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...
Hot and humid weather continues through the long term with
daytime highs in the mid to upper 90s for most of the region
(College Station area will be flirting with the 100-103 range
Sunday through Tuesday) with overnight lows in mid to upper 70s.
Daytime heat indices will be in the 103 to 106 degree range each
day.
On Sunday, an upper level ridge will be centered over the Central
Plains with a very weak shortwave rounding the bottom of the
ridge into SE Texas. This shortwave combined with daytime heating
and PWATs near 2" will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Monday and Tuesday look to have the most limited shower activity
of the long term, but high PWATs and daytime heating will still
bring the possibility of isolated showers and thunderstorms during
the afternoon hours. Rain totals through the next few days will
be highly variable (like most of this summer) where a quick 0.5"
of rain will fall for one neighborhood, meanwhile the next
neighborhood over may get nothing. Trying to narrow down exactly
which neighborhood gets the rain is not really possible - just the
way summertime convection is in this pattern.
Guidance remains in pretty good agreement in the midlevels for
Wednesday and beyond with high pressure building over the
Southern/Central Plains, however surface features are a bit of a
different story. A front over the Midwest on Wednesday will either
remain stationary over that region through the rest of the week
(GFS) or slide southwards potentially into our region (ECMWF). The
further south solution is dependent on the strength/location of a
trough over the East Coast Thursday into Friday - the GFS keeps
it further north thus keeping the front further north, while the
EC has the trough digging all the way down into the northern Gulf
bringing the associated precipitation with it. While the GFS
doesn`t bring it as far south, it does have a shortwave moving
onshore into SE Texas Friday bringing increased showers and
thunderstorms coverage. So, either way we can possibly expect an
uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity by Friday.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will persist through
the upcoming week. Small craft may need to exercise caution at
times during the overnight hours when that onshore flow becomes
more moderate. Wave heights of 2 to 4 feet will also persist
through the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible each day through the week producing locally gusty winds.
The persistent onshore flow will bring at least a moderate chance
for strong rip currents along Gulf facing beaches this week.
Fowler
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 1206 AM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022/...
.AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...
Forecast remains on track. VFR conditions are expected to prevail
this morning. Areas of MVFR ceilings will be possible in the
Brazos Valley and near the coast. Widely scattered SH activity
expected to develop near the coast this morning. As the morning
progresses into the afternoon, TS/SH activity will push inland.
Still going with VCSH for CLL and UTS due to uncertainty. VCTS is
indicated for all terminals today from CXO points south. TS
coverage is likely to decrease after 0z due to loss of daytime
heating. Lingering SH and possibly an iso TS are expected near the
coast after 0z, hence the VCSH towards the end of the TAF period
for LBX and GLS.
It's early and I'll be extremely glad to be wrong...but I'm also on the "no hope for today" bandwagon.
That blob is staying decently far off the coast (drifting ever slowly slightly southwest??). Anything that nears the coast goes poof.
NWS has me at 40% today and 60% tomorrow....color me doubtful. Not sure I'm following the optimism from the folks at HGX (that's not a knock against them!).
