August 2022

[Pas_Bon]

That big, bad line literally began dissipating and split right before League City

I want to crawl in a hole.

[jasons2k]

Still some light to moderate rain falling here. This will help the plants a lot. It’ll be interesting to see what transpires over the next couple of days.

Astros are tied.

[jasons2k]

I missed this earlier. From Jeff Lindner at 8:34pm:

Eventful evening in progress with southwest moving line of strong to severe thunderstorms…producing the most rainfall this region has seen since late May.

Northeasterly flow storms this time of year must always be watched as the outflow tends to arrive during peak heating producing very strong winds…this evening was no exception with several 55-60mph gusts over central and western Harris into northern Fort Bend. Inland moving seabreeze front collided with southward moving outflow boundary over northern Harris and a corridor of 2-3 inches of rain fell in an hour or less from Kingwood to Aldine to Cypress. This was widespread and much needed rainfall, but several locations recorded over an inch of rainfall in less than 15 minutes.

Line of storms will continue SW into the late evening with the strong outflow boundary pushing off the coast. Overall meso model guidance did not handle the development well this afternoon and evening as they were not aggressive enough and think the boundary will push further offshore than models think. This complicates the forecast for tomorrow as much of the area will be stable through the midday hours, but the boundary may begin to back toward the coast and then transition inland along the seabreeze during the afternoon. Tropical air mass continues to surge into the region from the Gulf, so the moisture is there, but the air mass may take a good bit of the day to recover. Think rain chances may need to be lowered some on Thursday, but should things get going late again there could be some strong storms along the seabreeze and a few storms dropping SW again from East Texas.

Tropical air mass covers much of the area on Friday and expect numerous showers and thunderstorms. Area soundings are nearly saturated so very good rainfall production in storms is expected with hourly rates of 1-3 inches possible. I have been burned with these overly tropical air masses many times where the surface coastal convergence sets up offshore or right on the coast and the inland locations get robbed of rainfall and moisture and see very little rainfall. Will see how the meso models depict things going into Thursday for Friday so rain chances are low confidence.

Moisture begins to trend downward this weekend, but I am a bit uncomfortable with the low level and 850mb trough axis still over the NW Gulf so rain chances may not trend down as much as the current forecast show.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District

[Stratton20]

Man the ICON just refuses to back down from its tropical storm on our doorstep scenario at hour 84, but its the icon lol

[Cromagnum]

If what Jeff says holds, we aren't going to get much rain on Thursday at all.

[Cpv17]

Still some light to moderate rain falling here. This will help the plants a lot. It’ll be interesting to see what transpires over the next couple of days.

Astros are tied.

They miss Michael Brantley big time. They just cannot generate enough offense especially without his bat.

Friday might be a bigger event than tomorrow. Not excited about tomorrow. This weekend has a possibility of being interesting.

[djmike]

Well everywhere I look, Mets seem to be saying a decrease in storm coverage today because of yesterdays rains. The atmosphere is still too worked over and stable and will take a while to recover to produce storms again. Then maybe a 20-30% coverage in the evening at best. Might as well not expect anything today. Friday still looks good for storms and showers.

[Houstonkid]

1.2" in Katy. Got to the office this AM , 290/Tidwell and 2" branches blown down in the courtyard. We are a midrise building and have a window blown out somehow. A couple of exits down is Bombshells and their plastic sign on the pole is blown out.

[snowman65]

Had to drive from Galleria area back home to Orange around 8:00 last night. It rained the entire way home. So, if you live east of Katy and try to say you didnt get any rain, Im calling you out lol.. Did anyone see that coming? Got a little hairy around galleria area. Traffic lights out everywhere. Sons apartment lost power and not expected back until noon today.

[Cpv17]

The HRRR is now showing a decent amount of popups beginning around 3 this afternoon for the western half of the viewing area. Basically west of 45.

[jasons2k]

I sure hope tomorrow and Saturday we don’t get robbed by everything concentrating offshore. I’ve seen it too many times to be too optimistic right now. Jeff’s comment in his discussion doesn’t help either.

[JDsGN]

We ended up with 1.6" of rain in Fairfield Cypress. It was a really impressive storm but up until the second it started pouring i thought it would split and go around us. Thankfully that didn't happen. Looking at the Harris County rainfall map and despite the overall size and intensity of the storms it really had a wide variance of rainfall over small distances. Hopefully we can cash in for more over the next couple of days.

[Cromagnum]

Today needs to be Brazoria County day.

[jasons2k]

OK, I know I've been the source of some entertainment on the board with my rain drama, but time to take the emotion out of it for a second and look at today. I'm not ready to focus on tomorrow yet because what happens today will have subtle, but important effects on tomorrow's forecast as well.

A few observations:
- Plenty of moisture to work with today. Precipitable water values are AOA 2" southeast of a line from Shreveport to San Antonio.
- No capping with moist column
- Water vapor loop looks good with a little disturbance south of Shreveport, moving SSW that will move across today
- Satellite shows skies are clearing which will enable a few key ingredients: heating and the development of the sea breeze
- North-to-south mean storm motion which will setup the opportunity for boundary collisions again during peak heating

Based on my impartial observations, I believe chances are high for rain today, greater than 50%, with the best chances coming late this afternoon with the sea breeze /outflow collision setup over the central counties and then pushing down towards the coast in the evening. Less widespread than yesterday but still a good shot for most people.

Good luck today everyone! We need it while we can get it! Nina long range....nah, I don't want to ruin it - haha.

[TexasBreeze]

One thing is for sure the tropics are having troubles waking up. Not much on the models and 97l is a no go now!

[Stratton20]

Its only early august, favorable MJO phase and climatological forcing is set to return in early september, plus long range midels show the GOM being wetter than normal in september, an active period is coming, especially when the dust recedes towards the end of the month, even october the GON is looking wetter than normal,

[Cpv17]

One thing is for sure the tropics are having troubles waking up. Not much on the models and 97l is a no go now!

I say the last week of August it’ll wake up.

[TexasBreeze]

Agree with that. Guess we all have become accustomed to big starts and seeing things struggle is surprising. A certain 'A' storm didn't form till August in 1992 and see what that did.

[cperk]

Agree with that. Guess we all have become accustomed to big starts and seeing things struggle is surprising. A certain 'A' storm didn't form till August in 1992 and see what that did.

Yeah Andrew was a bad one.

[TexasBreeze]

The gfs has been showing broad vorticity forming from the mess in the Gulf and moving into south Texas this weekend Not much on our side though except for seabreeze action.