August 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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jasons2k
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Alright, time to get more serious. The drama was fun while it lasted, at least for me - haha.

98L will come-in just south of Corpus. It remains to be seen how far north/inland the rain shield and attendant feeder bands will push on Sat and Sun.

Herzog has 40% chances of rain for Houston tomorrow and 60% on Sunday.
NWS has 70% chances of rain for Houston tomorrow and 40% on Sunday.
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sambucol
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Depression?
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 6:07 pm Cpv17 its not just that, its also that most of the convection is to the south of where the “center” is, kinda similar to barry back in 2019, but yeah Harvey was a much bigger storm, this is definitely much smaller in size
I understand that. It’s just extremely odd not for a system to have substantial convection on the north and east side. The only way for that not to happen would be from shear. Southern sides of storms are typically void of convection.
Cpv17
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sambucol wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:07 pmDepression?
It’s possible but unlikely.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 might be a little bit of shear, but we will see if this system can start to get some convection going on its Northeast side overnight, otherwise i dont expect much from 98L, 18z GEFS has a little bit of a signal for potentially another gulf system next week, but thats just speculation for now
Cpv17
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The 18z GFS is the best overall run of any model I have seen in ages. It literally has substantial rains for the entire state.
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:15 pm Cpv17 might be a little bit of shear, but we will see if this system can start to get some convection going on its Northeast side overnight, otherwise i dont expect much from 98L, 18z GEFS has a little bit of a signal for potentially another gulf system next week, but thats just speculation for now
College Station won’t see anything from it but I think my area has a chance to see something. Like I said this morning, south of I-10 has better chances.
Stratton20
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CPV17 Im actually back in katy now visiting my parents for the next 2 weeks and we just got a nice refreshing thunderstorm here, man have I missed the sound of thunder and heavy rain hahaha
Cromagnum
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Things I no longer trust.

1. Long range forecasts (for obvious reasons).
2. Daily forecasts.
3. The radar.

I'm getting a weather rock. I have seen too many times that my area does whatever the hell it wants to. We didn't even get a sprinkle today besides a tiny bit overnight last night.
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Dls2010r
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Santa Fe Tx here. Very little rain here too!!!
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jasons2k
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This system is still very disorganized. Not stacked at all. I see a LLC south of Lake Charles and a mid-level center further offshore south of Vermilion Bay. Both don’t have much convection to speak of.
Stratton20
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The GFS continues to hint at another gulf system next week, something to watch for sure as a CCKW passage next week could help to spark things
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 12:00 am The GFS continues to hint at another gulf system next week, something to watch for sure as a CCKW passage next week could help to spark things
Time to look for some ensemble support.
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jasons2k
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Wow. Jilted again. My long advertised 70% chance of rain for today just got whacked down to only 30%!!

There is a good chance my only rain from this system came on Wednesday. Another colossal bust. Looks like I’ll be watering this weekend again. SMH. I thought we were better than this in 2022. :evil: :evil: :evil:

Don’t ever believe the word “finally”- it’s a trap!

I’m going back to bed.
Pas_Bon
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I’m literally getting sick of this.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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3 weeks to CFB season. The light is at the end of the hellish, shitty Summer tunnel!
Team #NeverSummer
TexasBreeze
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At least it is going into an area that needs rain instead of Louisiana again!
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jasons2k
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TexasBreeze wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 10:02 am At least it is going into an area that needs rain instead of Louisiana again!
This is true. I still can't wrap my head around the fact that we'll be on the east/dirty side of the trough and get left with scraps, if that. We've got to be the only place in the basin where this happens. There is always a scientific explanation, but it's draining and feels like a curse when it happens over and over again.
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Katdaddy
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A NE breeze and lots of sun in W League City.
Cromagnum
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I'll be dragging my sprinklers around again too. These forecasts could not have been more wrong.
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