August 2022
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4246
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Interesting things ive noticed with our tropical disturbance in the Western Caribbean tonight, it is really convectively active right now, something the GFS missed on its last run, the wave is being or convection is being helped by land friction, this is interesting not in terms of development, but potentially altering the trajectory of where this disturbance enters the BOC, this land friction could actually caused the disturbance to be pulled further north before entering the BOC, that could have a huge affect on things
20% chance of the blob in the W. Caribbean forms anything within 5 days. It's being chased by dry air, and there's currently dry air in the Gulf.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24
Better chance of mischief if the FROPA makes it offshore, although retrograde is expected.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24
Better chance of mischief if the FROPA makes it offshore, although retrograde is expected.
Boundary Alert! on Thursday 
Finally to actual NORMAl weather after Saturday.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
631 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022
.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...
SHRA/TSRA activity has tapered off across the area over the past
hour or so, with light and variable winds expected overnight.
Conditions should mostly fall within VFR thresholds, although the
latest forecast soundings have hinted that periods of MVFR cigs
may be possible after 06Z this evening. Additionally, some brief
patchy fog may also at times produce MVFR conditions, particularly
at LBX/CXO. For the time being, have only included SCT decks and
VFR visibilities in TAFs but will need to closely monitor for the
next package. Tomorrow, light to moderate southwest winds will
shift to the south by mid-afternoon.
Cady
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 338 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022/...
.SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday Night]...
Mid to upper level ridging over the Central/Southern Plains should
continue to bring hot and dry weather over the next few days. A few
isolated showers have popped up this afternoon over the Gulf waters
and our southern counties. These showers should taper off into
the evening as daytime heating ceases with overnight lows in the
mid 70s to lower 80s.
Influence from the upper level ridge continues to strengthen as we
head into Wednesday. 850mb temperatures pick up to around 21-23C in
the afternoon, which should bring more widespread triple digit
temperatures as inland highs reach the upper 90s to lower 100s. Even
with dewpoints mixing out in afternoon, heat indicies will be around
106-110 degrees. This may warrant a heat advisory across most of
the region, though, have opted to defer this decision to the next
shift as to better coordinate the location and timing for this
product, should the current trends continue to hold true.
Increasing subsidence and drier conditions will leave our rain
chances slim to none across much of SE Texas during the day. With
that in mind, heat safety should be practiced wherever you are.
Remember to stay hydrated and take plenty of breaks inside to cool
off from these hot temperatures.
Heading into Wednesday night, a weak frontal boundary spanning
across northern TX, OK and ARK will drift into southeast Texas in
response to a mid to upper level trough over the Northeastern CONUS.
This boundary will help bring scattered showers and thunderstorms
to areas along and north of Huntsville during the overnight
hours. 03
.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...
Thursday afternoon and evening could be somewhat interesting.
We`ll start out the day with a llvl swly flow which should allow
for some quick heating. Peak heat indices actually border on advsy
criteria for some locations. During the afternoon hours, we`ll
probably see a slow moving, weak frontal boundary try to slide
into northern parts of the area along with PW`s pooling in the
2.2-2.5" range in advance. Suspect well see some convection initiate
with the above combination. Steering flow aloft should be fairly
weak so will need to be on the lookout for some heavy downpours.
Although too early for specifics (esp time of the day), it`ll be
worth keeping an eye on seabreeze/baybreeze position in the late
afternoon and evening hours for potential collisions which could
further enhance localized QPF/intensity maxima.
Late Thursday night & Friday`s fcst will likely be driven on the
mesoscale & dependent on what occurs Thurs aftn & evening (where
boundaries end up and if/how stabilized the atmos becomes from
earlier convection). Theoretically, the remnant & decaying frontal
boundary and plentiful moisture should linger in the area into
Fri...continuing rain chances, but overall confidence in the
details is fairly low.
Saturday should be somewhat of a transition day. The front should
be washed out by then, though daytime heating & seabreeze should
still work their magic for some sct diurnally driven activity.
Tropical wave currently situated near Nicaragua is forecast to
make its way into the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf late this
week. Vast majority of ensemble members favor tracks, should there
be any development, south of the border so not much of a local concern
attm. We may see an associated surge of deeper moisture make its
way toward the coast later in the weekend. 47
.MARINE...
High pressure over the central Gulf will maintain light onshore
winds for the next several days. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms will increase late Thursday as a weak front slides
into northern parts of southeast Texas and moisture levels
increase in advance. Winds and seas should slightly increase going
into the weekend as the high pressure area moves east and
pressures fall across the Bay of Campeche. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 78 104 79 101 76 / 0 10 10 50 60
Houston (IAH) 77 101 77 100 76 / 0 10 10 50 60
Galveston (GLS) 84 95 84 92 83 / 0 10 0 30 50
&&
Finally to actual NORMAl weather after Saturday.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
631 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022
.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...
SHRA/TSRA activity has tapered off across the area over the past
hour or so, with light and variable winds expected overnight.
Conditions should mostly fall within VFR thresholds, although the
latest forecast soundings have hinted that periods of MVFR cigs
may be possible after 06Z this evening. Additionally, some brief
patchy fog may also at times produce MVFR conditions, particularly
at LBX/CXO. For the time being, have only included SCT decks and
VFR visibilities in TAFs but will need to closely monitor for the
next package. Tomorrow, light to moderate southwest winds will
shift to the south by mid-afternoon.
Cady
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 338 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022/...
.SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday Night]...
Mid to upper level ridging over the Central/Southern Plains should
continue to bring hot and dry weather over the next few days. A few
isolated showers have popped up this afternoon over the Gulf waters
and our southern counties. These showers should taper off into
the evening as daytime heating ceases with overnight lows in the
mid 70s to lower 80s.
Influence from the upper level ridge continues to strengthen as we
head into Wednesday. 850mb temperatures pick up to around 21-23C in
the afternoon, which should bring more widespread triple digit
temperatures as inland highs reach the upper 90s to lower 100s. Even
with dewpoints mixing out in afternoon, heat indicies will be around
106-110 degrees. This may warrant a heat advisory across most of
the region, though, have opted to defer this decision to the next
shift as to better coordinate the location and timing for this
product, should the current trends continue to hold true.
Increasing subsidence and drier conditions will leave our rain
chances slim to none across much of SE Texas during the day. With
that in mind, heat safety should be practiced wherever you are.
Remember to stay hydrated and take plenty of breaks inside to cool
off from these hot temperatures.
Heading into Wednesday night, a weak frontal boundary spanning
across northern TX, OK and ARK will drift into southeast Texas in
response to a mid to upper level trough over the Northeastern CONUS.
This boundary will help bring scattered showers and thunderstorms
to areas along and north of Huntsville during the overnight
hours. 03
.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...
Thursday afternoon and evening could be somewhat interesting.
We`ll start out the day with a llvl swly flow which should allow
for some quick heating. Peak heat indices actually border on advsy
criteria for some locations. During the afternoon hours, we`ll
probably see a slow moving, weak frontal boundary try to slide
into northern parts of the area along with PW`s pooling in the
2.2-2.5" range in advance. Suspect well see some convection initiate
with the above combination. Steering flow aloft should be fairly
weak so will need to be on the lookout for some heavy downpours.
Although too early for specifics (esp time of the day), it`ll be
worth keeping an eye on seabreeze/baybreeze position in the late
afternoon and evening hours for potential collisions which could
further enhance localized QPF/intensity maxima.
Late Thursday night & Friday`s fcst will likely be driven on the
mesoscale & dependent on what occurs Thurs aftn & evening (where
boundaries end up and if/how stabilized the atmos becomes from
earlier convection). Theoretically, the remnant & decaying frontal
boundary and plentiful moisture should linger in the area into
Fri...continuing rain chances, but overall confidence in the
details is fairly low.
Saturday should be somewhat of a transition day. The front should
be washed out by then, though daytime heating & seabreeze should
still work their magic for some sct diurnally driven activity.
Tropical wave currently situated near Nicaragua is forecast to
make its way into the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf late this
week. Vast majority of ensemble members favor tracks, should there
be any development, south of the border so not much of a local concern
attm. We may see an associated surge of deeper moisture make its
way toward the coast later in the weekend. 47
.MARINE...
High pressure over the central Gulf will maintain light onshore
winds for the next several days. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms will increase late Thursday as a weak front slides
into northern parts of southeast Texas and moisture levels
increase in advance. Winds and seas should slightly increase going
into the weekend as the high pressure area moves east and
pressures fall across the Bay of Campeche. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 78 104 79 101 76 / 0 10 10 50 60
Houston (IAH) 77 101 77 100 76 / 0 10 10 50 60
Galveston (GLS) 84 95 84 92 83 / 0 10 0 30 50
&&
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Tue Aug 16, 2022 10:49 pm 20% chance of the blob in the W. Caribbean forms anything within 5 days. It's being chased by dry air, and there's currently dry air in the Gulf.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24
Better chance of mischief if the FROPA makes it offshore, although retrograde is expected.
I think it’s too early to completely write off that disturbance having any impacts on southeast Texas. And tonight it actually looks like it’s moving NNW.
The models and Ensembles are starting to rack up some rain totals over the next 10 days. Fronts and topical gyre, systems etc.
Famine to feast?
Famine to feast?
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TexasBreeze
- Posts: 942
- Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 4:46 pm
- Location: NW Houston, TX
- Contact:
The 0z ecmwf is a weird solution. Shows a low forming well inland in nw Texas then moving se slowly!
The Euro thinks every storm is going to have a brown ocean effect. I wouldn’t believe that run for a second.TexasBreeze wrote: ↑Wed Aug 17, 2022 6:33 am The 0z ecmwf is a weird solution. Shows a low forming well inland in nw Texas then moving se slowly!
Both the GFS and Euro have trended wetter with the front tomorrow afternoon/evening, at least here anyway. Nice trend about ~36 hours out.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4470
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 171018
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
518 AM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022
.SHORT TERM [Today Through Thursday Night]...
Heat will be the main forecast issue for today with high pressure at
the mid/upper levels lingering over the Southern Plains as well as a
surface high building in from the NW Gulf. Forecast 85h temperatures
are continuing in the 21-23C range for this afternoon...not too sur-
prising given the SW low/mid level winds...but efficient mixing will
help to lower dewpoints through the day. So, even with progs of high
temperatures around 100F for most of the northern half of the FA, we
should remain just under criteria with heat index values from 102 to
107F this afternoon. Will likely issue an SPS for regarding concerns
with heat given that some school districts have already started with
outdoor programs during the afternoon/early evening.
Highs for the rest of the CWA should range from the mid to upper 90s.
Even with this subsident pattern in place, the chances of isolated to
widely scattered activity along the sea breeze still can`t be totally
ruled out as we heat up through the day. These low POPs (20%) will be
for locations generally south of I-10.
Starting tonight but mostly for tomorrow/tomorrow night, the forecast
focus will be shifting to the approach of a weak front from the north.
Rain chances are expected to increase markedly as this boundary moves
slowly south into the CWA tomorrow before weakening/moving back north
late tomorrow night or Fri. Abundant daytime heating/pooling moisture
(PWs ~2"), progs of moderate instability and weak deep-layer shear on
and near this line should be sufficient to produce scattered/numerous
showers and thunderstorms tomorrow/tomorrow night. The day 2 outlooks
from both WPC and SPC do have much of SE TX in a Marginal Risk(s) for
Excessive Rain and Severe Weather, respectively. Rainfall rates could
reach 2+"/hour with the stronger storms. Damaging winds should be the
primary threat for these strong to severe thunderstorms. And finally,
even with the increased rain chances for tomorrow, temperatures could
still be rather warm/hot just ahead of the front. Highs near 100F are
possible for some locations (mainly the central to southern counties)
and with the increasing moisture, heat index values could briefly get
to 105-110F before the rains begin. 41
&&
.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...
Some pretty decent rain chances are currently in the forecast for
Friday, but there is a chance that Thursday night`s storms could end
up stabilizing the area and help to keep Friday`s activity from
being too extensive. A mainly diurnal rain pattern looks to set up
over the weekend (best chances during the afternoon through early
evening hours), but a tropical disturbance possibly approaching the
Texas coast on Sunday might bring some morning activity to the area
too. Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the first
half of next week as much of the area remains situated between
mid/upper level ridging to our west and to our east.
For this first time in quite a while, the long term forecast does
not have any high temperatures reaching the century mark! Outside of
any significant cloudy/rainy days, look for highs to range from
around 90 at the coast to mid to upper 90s inland.
42
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure over the central Gulf will maintain light to occasionally
moderate onshore winds for the next several days. Chances for showers
and thunderstorms will increase late Thursday and Friday as a weak front
slides into northern parts of southeast Texas and moisture levels rise
in advance. Winds and seas should slightly increase going into the weekend
as the high pressure area moves east and pressures fall across the Bay
of Campeche. Rain chances will remain in the forecast over the weekend.
42
&&
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Not too many changes from previous. Brief patchy fog will be possible
for some terminals this morning with some very isolated storms along/
near the sea breeze late this afternoon. Not going to add the mention
of precipitation today as confidence remains low with regard to devel-
opment and coverage should be sparse. These mostly VFR conditions are
expected to change as a weak frontal boundary moves in from the north
late tonight/overnight. Scattered showers/thunderstorms to prevail by
tomorrow afternoon as this line slowly moves south into the CWA. 41
&&
.CLIMATE...
College Station`s record high temperature for today is 110 degrees
set in 1903. This is the hottest August day in College Station`s
history (dating back to 1889). There have only been six days in
their history that the high temperature has been 110 degrees or
higher (three in July, one in August and two in September including
their all-time record high of 112 degrees set on 9/4/2000).
College Station`s record high minimum temperature for today is 86
degrees set in 1902. This is the warmest minimum temperature they
have observed during the month of August (again, dating back to
1889) and is only one degree off their all-time record high minimum
temperature of 87 degrees set on 6/23/1906 and 6/24/1906.
42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 103 80 101 75 94 / 10 10 60 50 40
Houston (IAH) 100 78 100 75 93 / 10 10 60 70 60
Galveston (GLS) 94 83 93 82 92 / 10 10 30 40 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 171018
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
518 AM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022
.SHORT TERM [Today Through Thursday Night]...
Heat will be the main forecast issue for today with high pressure at
the mid/upper levels lingering over the Southern Plains as well as a
surface high building in from the NW Gulf. Forecast 85h temperatures
are continuing in the 21-23C range for this afternoon...not too sur-
prising given the SW low/mid level winds...but efficient mixing will
help to lower dewpoints through the day. So, even with progs of high
temperatures around 100F for most of the northern half of the FA, we
should remain just under criteria with heat index values from 102 to
107F this afternoon. Will likely issue an SPS for regarding concerns
with heat given that some school districts have already started with
outdoor programs during the afternoon/early evening.
Highs for the rest of the CWA should range from the mid to upper 90s.
Even with this subsident pattern in place, the chances of isolated to
widely scattered activity along the sea breeze still can`t be totally
ruled out as we heat up through the day. These low POPs (20%) will be
for locations generally south of I-10.
Starting tonight but mostly for tomorrow/tomorrow night, the forecast
focus will be shifting to the approach of a weak front from the north.
Rain chances are expected to increase markedly as this boundary moves
slowly south into the CWA tomorrow before weakening/moving back north
late tomorrow night or Fri. Abundant daytime heating/pooling moisture
(PWs ~2"), progs of moderate instability and weak deep-layer shear on
and near this line should be sufficient to produce scattered/numerous
showers and thunderstorms tomorrow/tomorrow night. The day 2 outlooks
from both WPC and SPC do have much of SE TX in a Marginal Risk(s) for
Excessive Rain and Severe Weather, respectively. Rainfall rates could
reach 2+"/hour with the stronger storms. Damaging winds should be the
primary threat for these strong to severe thunderstorms. And finally,
even with the increased rain chances for tomorrow, temperatures could
still be rather warm/hot just ahead of the front. Highs near 100F are
possible for some locations (mainly the central to southern counties)
and with the increasing moisture, heat index values could briefly get
to 105-110F before the rains begin. 41
&&
.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...
Some pretty decent rain chances are currently in the forecast for
Friday, but there is a chance that Thursday night`s storms could end
up stabilizing the area and help to keep Friday`s activity from
being too extensive. A mainly diurnal rain pattern looks to set up
over the weekend (best chances during the afternoon through early
evening hours), but a tropical disturbance possibly approaching the
Texas coast on Sunday might bring some morning activity to the area
too. Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the first
half of next week as much of the area remains situated between
mid/upper level ridging to our west and to our east.
For this first time in quite a while, the long term forecast does
not have any high temperatures reaching the century mark! Outside of
any significant cloudy/rainy days, look for highs to range from
around 90 at the coast to mid to upper 90s inland.
42
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure over the central Gulf will maintain light to occasionally
moderate onshore winds for the next several days. Chances for showers
and thunderstorms will increase late Thursday and Friday as a weak front
slides into northern parts of southeast Texas and moisture levels rise
in advance. Winds and seas should slightly increase going into the weekend
as the high pressure area moves east and pressures fall across the Bay
of Campeche. Rain chances will remain in the forecast over the weekend.
42
&&
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Not too many changes from previous. Brief patchy fog will be possible
for some terminals this morning with some very isolated storms along/
near the sea breeze late this afternoon. Not going to add the mention
of precipitation today as confidence remains low with regard to devel-
opment and coverage should be sparse. These mostly VFR conditions are
expected to change as a weak frontal boundary moves in from the north
late tonight/overnight. Scattered showers/thunderstorms to prevail by
tomorrow afternoon as this line slowly moves south into the CWA. 41
&&
.CLIMATE...
College Station`s record high temperature for today is 110 degrees
set in 1903. This is the hottest August day in College Station`s
history (dating back to 1889). There have only been six days in
their history that the high temperature has been 110 degrees or
higher (three in July, one in August and two in September including
their all-time record high of 112 degrees set on 9/4/2000).
College Station`s record high minimum temperature for today is 86
degrees set in 1902. This is the warmest minimum temperature they
have observed during the month of August (again, dating back to
1889) and is only one degree off their all-time record high minimum
temperature of 87 degrees set on 6/23/1906 and 6/24/1906.
42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 103 80 101 75 94 / 10 10 60 50 40
Houston (IAH) 100 78 100 75 93 / 10 10 60 70 60
Galveston (GLS) 94 83 93 82 92 / 10 10 30 40 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Weird. The mesos except RGEM have a North of Hwy 1*5 solution, which has a S of Hwy 1*5 solution solution.
We'll know more tonight...and certainly by tomorrow's nowcasting.
Our little stealthy storm in the caribbean looks healthier than the 0% NHC forecast would lead you to believe.
Last edited by Cromagnum on Wed Aug 17, 2022 11:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
Tomorrow might be one of those situations where north of I-10 gets rain and then it weakens significantly south of there. At least that’s what it’s looking like to me atm.
Totals going up for me on NAM and HRRR. Earlier they didn’t show much, now the NAM gives me almost 3” tomorrow evening, HRRR over an inch…
Update from Jeff at 9:15. Will add the graphics later, time permitting.
A complex weather pattern will be developing over the next several days with one or two fronts and a possible tropical system.
Large scale trough of low pressure over the eastern US will send a frontal boundary into the region on Thursday. Air mass ahead of this boundary becomes very warm (upper 90’s to near 100) with lots of instability and moisture in place. Expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop across the region and move generally southward. There is some similarity to the events of last Wednesday when strong storms move across the area. Once again some of the storms could become strong to severe with damaging winds being the main threat. SPC has outlooked a portion of the area in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon and evening. Additionally, there could also be collisions with the inland moving seabreeze and south moving outflow boundaries somewhere over the area on Thursday afternoon and evening which could enhance local rainfall and or the severe threat. Given the deep moisture in place storms could easily produce 1-3 inches of rainfall in an hour leading the street flooding.
Severe Weather Outlook (Thursday):
Image
Excessive Rainfall Outlook (Thursday):
Day 2 image not available
Depending on just how active Thursday becomes, Friday may end up more a recovery day for the local air mass similar to last Thursday with widespread storms this Thursday helping to stabilize the air mass. Additionally, it will need to be seen how far offshore any outflow boundaries push helping to cut off any deep moisture supply. Overall, the outflow boundary or weak front should begin to wash out late Friday with moisture quickly returning to the area by Saturday along with scattered rain chances along the seabreeze. Attention then turns to the western Gulf for the weekend into early next week.
Tropical Wave:
Yesterday evening a large ball of deep convection developed along the northern coast of Honduras, and this area of thunderstorms has maintained for most of the night into this morning with some recent weakening. However, early morning visible images suggest that a mid level circulation is evident over the SW Caribbean Sea north of the Honduras coast, which is well north (and over the water) versus 24 hours ago. IR Satellite Loop for Western Atlantic | Tropical Tidbits It appears this circulation is moving toward the W or WNW and a review of surface observations in this area does not reveal any sort of surface circulation. This feature will likely move inland over Belize or the southern Yucatan late today into Thursday and then emerge over the Bay of Campeche on Friday. How this system maintains while moving over the land areas and where it enters the Bay of Campeche will have a potential impact on what happens over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Generally, this wave axis will track NW toward NE MX or S TX over the weekend and some development is possible. Currently NHC has development chances unchanged at 20% over the next 5 days.
The complicate things even more is the potential for yet another frontal boundary to drop southward early next week into N TX and block any tropical system from exiting the state to the NW or N and would potentially leave a weak tropical system lingering over some part of Texas into next week. Needless to say the uncertainty in the forecast over the weekend into next week is high.
Jeff Lindner
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4470
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 171739
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston
TX 1238 PM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022
.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the day with light to
moderate S/SW winds this afternoon becoming light and variable
overnight. Patchy fog may develop overnight at KCXO and KLBX,
potentially bringing MVF to IFR visibility at times during the
overnight hours. Spotty MVFR CIGS may also develop across portions
of the region into early Thursday morning. Any fog or CIGS that do
develop should burn off shortly after sunrise with light to moderate
W/SW winds developing by mid morning. A weak frontal boundary will
begin to sag into SE Texas Thursday afternoon, bringing scattered
showers and storms across portions of the region into Thursday
evening.
03
FXUS64 KHGX 171739
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston
TX 1238 PM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022
.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the day with light to
moderate S/SW winds this afternoon becoming light and variable
overnight. Patchy fog may develop overnight at KCXO and KLBX,
potentially bringing MVF to IFR visibility at times during the
overnight hours. Spotty MVFR CIGS may also develop across portions
of the region into early Thursday morning. Any fog or CIGS that do
develop should burn off shortly after sunrise with light to moderate
W/SW winds developing by mid morning. A weak frontal boundary will
begin to sag into SE Texas Thursday afternoon, bringing scattered
showers and storms across portions of the region into Thursday
evening.
03
This is off-topic, but China is seriously on fire!
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4246
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Interesting setup on the 12z Euro, has our tropical disturbance moving in around NE Mexico, then moving northward into Texas, and then it just meanders around the state as a cut off low for a few days, 00z run had a same setup with some ridiculous rain fall totals, something to watch
Edit: 12z Euro is very very wet for the entire state over the next 10 days, has 3-6 inches + over SE Texas with even heavier amounts over central and northern texas fwiw
Edit: 12z Euro is very very wet for the entire state over the next 10 days, has 3-6 inches + over SE Texas with even heavier amounts over central and northern texas fwiw
- Attachments
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They still won't put up an 80% on this one...the models have been trending wetter all day 
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 98 75 92 76 / 20 60 60 30 20
Houston (IAH) 77 99 76 92 77 / 10 60 60 30 30
Galveston (GLS) 84 92 84 90 82 / 10 30 40 50 30
The end of the 18z HRRR looked like it was trying to setup something significant for Friday.