August 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Pas_Bon
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We may have at least a localized flooding event somewhere in the Houston metro area friday into Saturday after seeing some of these trends.
Cpv17
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Ensembles are starting to trend much wetter for us. Looks pretty promising!
Stratton20
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CPV17 Yep! Loving what im seeing in both the operational runs and the ensembles, pattern ahead looks promising for a drough buster
cperk
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Cpv17 wrote: Wed Aug 17, 2022 7:48 pm Ensembles are starting to trend much wetter for us. Looks pretty promising!
Yeah i not buying it until i see rain falling from the sky this may just well be another Lucy and the football. ;)
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jasons2k
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I can see lots of lightning to the N/NE.
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DoctorMu
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MCS approaching.

Waiting for an outflow. lol

Is today/Thursday the day?
Stratton20
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WPC QPF update just came out now, looking even better for SE Texas, cant remember the last time ive seen those bright colors over 90% of Texas, definitely a great sign for farmers as well
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Katdaddy
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Day 1 of rain and thunderstorms. I will gladly enjoy my 8 block downtown walk from the office to the Metro bus stop in another deluge this afternoon. Fingers crossed.
Cromagnum
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My rain chances got slashed today. Is Friday the day now?
Cromagnum
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Aug 18, 2022 2:25 am WPC QPF update just came out now, looking even better for SE Texas, cant remember the last time ive seen those bright colors over 90% of Texas, definitely a great sign for farmers as well
Great for most of Texas but not us. That is a sharp gradient. Leaving most of us in the 1 inch (or less) zone. Hell, I'm in the 0.25 inch area of course.
Cpv17
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Cromagnum wrote: Thu Aug 18, 2022 7:56 am
Stratton20 wrote: Thu Aug 18, 2022 2:25 am WPC QPF update just came out now, looking even better for SE Texas, cant remember the last time ive seen those bright colors over 90% of Texas, definitely a great sign for farmers as well
Great for most of Texas but not us. That is a sharp gradient. Leaving most of us in the 1 inch (or less) zone. Hell, I'm in the 0.25 inch area of course.
That’s showing about an inch to an inch and a half for your area. And the heavier totals are shifting south with each update.
Cromagnum
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Cpv17 wrote: Thu Aug 18, 2022 8:07 am
Cromagnum wrote: Thu Aug 18, 2022 7:56 am
Stratton20 wrote: Thu Aug 18, 2022 2:25 am WPC QPF update just came out now, looking even better for SE Texas, cant remember the last time ive seen those bright colors over 90% of Texas, definitely a great sign for farmers as well
Great for most of Texas but not us. That is a sharp gradient. Leaving most of us in the 1 inch (or less) zone. Hell, I'm in the 0.25 inch area of course.
That’s showing about an inch to an inch and a half for your area. And the heavier totals are shifting south with each update.
I'm on crack this morning. I was looking at Matagorda Bay. Too used to seeing those donuts.
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tireman4
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 180927
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
427 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Friday Night]...

A lot of moving parts to the forecast today. An outflow boundary via
the storms moving down from North TX seems to have run into a linger-
ing/stationary surface boundary from yesterday (perhaps sea breeze?).
This is currently producing some very healthy storms across northern
Polk and Montgomery counties this morning with rainfall rates around
2-2.5"/hour with the stronger cells. Storm total precipitation looks
to be estimating nearly 2-5 inches of rain so far.

So, how will this impact the forecast going forward for today? Short
range guidance has not initialized all that well with all of this on-
going activity but have opted to lean ever so slightly onto HRRR/ARW
solutions for now. As such, will expect this current spate of storms
to eventually decrease as we approach sunrise...a bit of break going
into the mid/late morning with activity picking back up later in the
afternoon as the main frontal boundary moves into the CWA. Left-over
surface boundaries along with daytime heating, progs of moderate (to
strong) instability all support the Marginal Risk for severe weather
across much of SE TX today. Strong damaging winds remain the primary
threat. Additionally, the threat of locally heavy rains will also re-
main in the forecast. Deep pooling moisture (PWs ~2.2") along with a
favorable diffluent pattern aloft and all those previously mentioned
leftover boundaries could produce widespread (eventually) beneficial
rains for the FA. Initially, however, these rains will have impacts
on low-lying and other flood-prone areas through this afternoon into
the evening potentially. Will keep the elevated POPs in place across
the CWA through tomorrow/tomorrow night, but the reality is that the
storms should occur in rounds with some breaks in between...all high-
ly dependent on eventual meso-scale features. We may need to address
the idea of a Flood Watch for tomorrow(Fri) if these rains do verify
today. (Reminder: forecast confidence remaining on the lower side of
things for this short-term.)

As for temperatures, we could still be rather warm/hot today prior to
the storms developing. Highs near 100F are possible late this morning
to early afternoon for some locations (mainly the central to southern
counties west of I-45). And with the increasing moisture and decreas-
ing winds, heat index values could briefly get to 105-110F before the
rains begin. Overnight temperatures and highs tomorrow should be much
closer to normal given the forecasted rains/clouds. 41

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...

An unsettled and much needed wetter pattern is anticipated as a series
of disturbances move across the area. Our location will be in between
a ridge off to our west and a trough off to our east, and this position
should allow for periods of showers and thunderstorms (mostly diurnally
driven) especially during the first half of next week. Before that time
period, expecting to have a daily shot of rain with better chances possibly
coming on Sunday as the northern fringes of a tropical disturbance move
into our area. Throughout this long term period, locally heavy rainfall
will be possible, especially with the strong and/or slower moving storms.

In addition to this good news rain (as long as there is no flooding),
the area can expect lower temperatures for most of the days. If the
rain/cloud timing is right, some of the days (especially next week)
with highs) might see high temperatures struggle to reach 90 degrees.
Wouldn`t that be nice?

42

&&

.MARINE...

Light to moderate mainly onshore winds can be expected. Mariners should
be on the lookout for some storms possibly moving toward or into the
waters from the north this evening which may cause some chaotic winds
and seas at times. An increase in winds and seas is anticipated Saturday
night through Sunday night. Periods of showers and thunderstorms can
be expected over the weekend and into the start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

With storms moving down from North TX, there were some concerns with
VCTS/TEMPO groups for a few of our northern terminals overnight. But
as this activity decreases through the early morning, we should have
a brief break before things pick up once again this afternoon and in-
to this evening. For now, not planning on any major changes from the
previous package...perhaps a few tweaks with timing/start of VCTS/SH
and TEMPO groups for some sites. Otherwise, a busy messy forecast is
in store for today with activity expected to decrease tonight. There
could be a repeat for tomorrow. 41

&&

.CLIMATE...

Here are year to date rainfall totals and departures from normal
for our five major climate sites.

-College Station`s total is 16.41 inches which is 8.18 inches
below normal. At this time last year, the rainfall totals was
25.94 inches.

-Houston`s total is 24.71 inches which is 6.51 inches below
normal. At this time last year, the rainfall totals was 32.04
inches.

-Houston Hobby`s total is 15.14 inches which is 17.65 inches below
normal. At this time last year, the rainfall totals was 33.62
inches.

-Galveston`s total is 18.10 inches which is 5.69 inches below
normal. At this time last year, the rainfall totals was 26.50
inches.

-Palacios`s total is 15.75 inches which is 8.55 inches below
normal. At this time last year, the rainfall total was 47.51
inches.

42

$$

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 98 74 92 76 96 / 70 70 50 20 20
Houston (IAH) 98 76 92 77 93 / 60 70 60 20 50
Galveston (GLS) 92 81 90 83 90 / 30 40 50 20 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$
Cromagnum
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That disturbance over the Yucatan is still putting up a good fight.

https://imgur.io/6CSN8wT
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srainhoutx
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Looking like a good chance of beneficial rainfall coming and some potential for excessive rainfall day to day. Morning briefing from Jeff:


Strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall possible this afternoon over the area.



Wet weather pattern in place through much of next week…with drought breaking rainfall possible over a large portion of TX

This afternoon/evening:

Weak frontal boundary is currently sagging into N TX and will slowly move southward today reaching a line from near Tyler to Madisonville to Georgetown by this afternoon. Air mass south of this boundary is already moist and unstable and with heating will become highly charged with energy by early to mid afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along the frontal boundary and move southward along with their associated outflow boundaries into air mass temperatures likely in the mid to upper 90’s. At the same time the seabreeze and baybreeze will move northward away from the coast and Galveston Bay and at some point these boundaries will collide over the area. Forecast soundings are showing a favorable profile for both heavy rainfall and downburst winds with the storms this afternoon. The setup is fairly similar to last Wednesday. High resolution models are showing various solutions on where the greatest storm threat will be this afternoon with some hints that areas west of I-45 and south of I-10 may have the highest chances of more widespread and consolidated activity. Hourly rainfall rates of 2-3 inches will be possible under the stronger storms leading to street flooding along with gusty winds of 40-55mph.

Storms may continue well into the evening hours with the actual weak front remaining north of Hwy 105 tonight and disturbances moving across the area in the flow aloft. High resolution guidance has continued to show activity lingering into the 11pm-1am timeframe tonight. Weak front will drop toward the coast on Friday, but it remains to be seen how “worked” over the local air mass is from the activity today. Guidance is attempting to develop storms along the boundary again generally south of I-10, but a lot hinges on if the air mass can recover and just how widespread activity becomes later today. Storms could be slow moving on Friday which increases the heavy rainfall threat with high moisture values remaining in place.

Next Week:

Upper air pattern continues to support an extended period of widespread rainfall across much of TX into next week with yet another frontal system sagging into and stalling across the state and tropical moisture moving northward off the Gulf. Numerous periods of showers and thunderstorms will be likely with some areas receiving significant rainfall over the next 7 days. In fact rainfall amounts over a large portion of TX may approach the needed amounts to make a large dent in the ongoing drought. Given the tropical moisture that will be in place, heavy to excessive rainfall will be possible, but where and when any flooding concerns become a reality is uncertain.

Forecasted Rainfall Amounts (Next 7 Days):

image001 (6).png
Gulf:

Tropical wave and mid level circulation that was over the far SW Caribbean Sea yesterday has moved inland over Belize and the southern Yucatan overnight. Vigorous deep convection has developed with this feature over northern Belize into the southern Yucatan overnight and this morning and overall the satellite appearance looks fairly impressive IR Satellite Loop for Western Atlantic | Tropical Tidbits Belize radar out of Philip Goldson Airport does not indicate any low level circulation associated with the mid level circulation and surface observations confirm this. With that said, this feature is highly active with convection, moreso than forecast models have been suggesting and yet most show little to no development of this feature as it moves over the southern Gulf starting tomorrow and then NW over the weekend. NHC has slightly increased the development probabilities to 30% over the next 5 days over the southwest Gulf. We shall see where this feature moves over the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche on Friday and if convection maintains its current cycle and development chances increase some. For now, just an increase in moisture for this weekend with the wave axis moving inland somewhere in NE MX or S TX, but I am not convinced the models are handling this feature well so it should be watched over the next few days once over the southern Gulf.
image002.png
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Cpv17
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Geez, that disturbance over the Yucatán/Guatemala looks really impressive right now. I could definitely see it developing once it gets back over water.
TexasBreeze
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I see the soi is in the negative 30s which is a pacific indicator of Texas rain. The more negative the better support for rain. Ntxw on s2k is a firm believer in that index. He is starting to question the number of 100 degree days left too at least for north Tx
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djmike
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Is that up by Dallas the line were supposed to get or will something form closer to us as the day heats up?
Mike
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(IH-10 & College Street)
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don
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djmike wrote: Thu Aug 18, 2022 11:20 am Is that up by Dallas the line were supposed to get or will something form closer to us as the day heats up?
New storms will form in SE Texas this afternoon with the heating of the day.
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jasons2k
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Recon scheduled for tomorrow. The Lat/Lon fixes are the same locations as the previous "if needed" schedule:
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1155 AM EDT THU 18 AUGUST 2022
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z AUGUST 2022
TCPOD NUMBER.....22-084

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 19/1800Z A. 20/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST B. AFXXX 0204A CYCLONE
C. 19/1515Z C. 20/0900Z
D. 20.0N 94.0W D. 22.0N 96.0W
E. 19/1730Z TO 19/2130Z E. 20/1100Z TO 20/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. LOW-LEVEL INVEST G. FIX
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