August 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
cperk
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Cpv17 wrote: Thu Aug 18, 2022 10:05 am Geez, that disturbance over the Yucatán/Guatemala looks really impressive right now. I could definitely see it developing once it gets back over water.
You are right it looks impressive over land lets see what it does once it immerges over the southern GOM.
Texashawk
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This has been a crazy quiet hurricane season so far, and we’re only a few weeks from the peak of the season already!
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srainhoutx
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The ensembles suggest that the Tropics may become very active the next couple of weeks.
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Stratton20
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I dont trust the fact that its been unusually quiet in the tropics, definitely cant let our guard down! Even if its just a average season, one storm that comes to mind is Hurricane Rita, wasnt their only like 5-6 named storms that season? And one of thise was Rita, only takes one storm to be a bad season
Cromagnum
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Aug 18, 2022 12:09 pm I dont trust the fact that its been unusually quiet in the tropics, definitely cant let our guard down! Even if its just a average season, one storm that comes to mind is Hurricane Rita, wasnt their only like 5-6 named storms that season? And one of thise was Rita, only takes one storm to be a bad season
To get to R, you need 16 other named storms first. Also same year as Katrina which is why Houston lost its mind. 2005 was a really active season.
Stratton20
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Cromagnum I must be thinking of a different storm then
Cromagnum
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Aug 18, 2022 12:17 pm Cromagnum I must be thinking of a different storm then
1983 Hurricane Alicia? That one smoked Houston, and there were only 4 named storms that year.
Stratton20
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Cromagnum yup thats the one, obviously not saying we are going to get slammed by a major hurricane, but since this season looks to be near average, Alicia is a perfect reminder that an average to maybe slightly below average season can still be dangerous , all it takes is one
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tireman4
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HGX Noon Update...


000
FXUS64 KHGX 181716
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1216 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022

.AVIATION...
Look for showers and thunderstorms to initiate and fill in around
the CLL/UTS/CXO terminals within the next hour or 2. Storms will
probably consolidate and move south into the Houston terminals in
the late afternoon and off the coast in the early evening. Some
will have the potential to be on the strong side...with reduced
visibility in heavy rain and also the possibility of strong wind
gusts 25kt+ (more than likely out of a northerly direction).
Trailing shra and a few embedded storms will generally be tapering
off in the 1-4z timeframe.

Mostly VFR conditions with some 8-12k ceilings overnight...though
wouldn`t be surprised to see some patchy fog development should
there be any brief breaks in the clouds considering wet grounds.

Heading into the sunrise hours, model guidance is hinting at some
tstm development near the coast (GLS/LBX) eventually expanding
inland into the Houston terminals in the mid-late morning.
Confidence isn`t particularly high on the details and will be
dependent on how worked over the atmos becomes after todays
storms and where boundaries end up. That said there is enough of a
consensus to add some TEMPO`s. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 72 93 76 / 70 70 60 10
Houston (IAH) 96 74 93 77 / 70 70 70 20
Galveston (GLS) 90 78 90 82 / 60 60 70 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$
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jasons2k
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Midday Update:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1216 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022

.AVIATION...
Look for showers and thunderstorms to initiate and fill in around
the CLL/UTS/CXO terminals within the next hour or 2. Storms will
probably consolidate and move south into the Houston terminals in
the late afternoon and off the coast in the early evening. Some
will have the potential to be on the strong side...with reduced
visibility in heavy rain and also the possibility of strong wind
gusts 25kt+ (more than likely out of a northerly direction).
Trailing shra and a few embedded storms will generally be tapering
off in the 1-4z timeframe.

Mostly VFR conditions with some 8-12k ceilings overnight...though
wouldn`t be surprised to see some patchy fog development should
there be any brief breaks in the clouds considering wet grounds.

Heading into the sunrise hours, model guidance is hinting at some
tstm development near the coast (GLS/LBX) eventually expanding
inland into the Houston terminals in the mid-late morning.
Confidence isn`t particularly high on the details and will be
dependent on how worked over the atmos becomes after todays
storms and where boundaries end up. That said there is enough of a
consensus to add some TEMPO`s. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 72 93 76 / 70 70 60 10
Houston (IAH) 96 74 93 77 / 70 70 70 20
Galveston (GLS) 90 78 90 82 / 60 60 70 20
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