August 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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jasons2k
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Please not again…but satellite shows TCu may be going up along that outflow stretching SW to NE…
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 182023
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
323 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday Night]...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the evening hours.
Plenty of sunshine and boundaries galore to work off of in the
meantime. Have seen some gusts to around 50mph, small hail & minor
street flooding in and around the more intense cells so far this
afternoon and anticipate similar hazards to persist for the next
several hours.

Convection should wane by late evening with the loss of heating.
Think we`ll see some mid-upper cloud ceilings overnight, but with
wet ground and light winds in place we wouldn`t be too surprised to
see some spotty/patchy fog.

HREF members and TTU WRF suggest some storm redevelopment along the
coast toward morning...in association with more convergent llvl flow
along boundary situated just offshore. Of course, should mesoscale
conditions take over and take outflows well offshore the initiation
zone would change. As the day progresses and daytime heating kicks
in, suspect we`ll get some additional precip development
inland...first across southern parts where higher moisture levels
will reside then further north closer to the diffuse/decaying
remnants of the frontal boundary.

47

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...
Relatively cooler weather is on the tap heading into this weekend
as we find ourselves positioned between a mid to upper level
trough over the upper Mississippi Valley and another upper level
ridge over the Northern Plains/Rockies on Saturday. This trough
will push easterly through the Great Lakes region on Sunday with
another embedded shortwave trough pushing across the Southern
PLains during this same time frame. These features will work in
tandem to push another frontal boundary down towards SE Texas,
bringing our rain chances up heading into next week. Surging
moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will pool out ahead of this
boundary, bringing PWATS up to around 2.0-2.25" by Monday which is
above the 75th and 90th percentile for this time of the year. The
EURO solution even depicts PWATS near 2.4" on Tuesday,
threatening to break the daily maximum for this time of year.
Shortwave energy from the aforementioned troughs will also stream
overhead on Monday and Tuesday, further aiding in the development
of more numerous showers and thunderstorms. Model soundings depict
a very saturated profile, with a deep warm cloud layer,
especially on Tuesday and Wednesday.

All off these factors indicate high precipitation efficiency and much
needed relief from the dry conditions that have been plaguing the
region. The additional rainfall and increased cloud cover from these
storms will work to cool off much of the region. Current guidance
depicts highs in the mid to low 90s on Saturday with temperatures
on a downward trend heading into next week as these rain chances
improve.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
Look for showers and thunderstorms to initiate and fill in around
the CLL/UTS/CXO terminals within the next hour or 2. Storms will
probably consolidate and move south into the Houston terminals in
the late afternoon and off the coast in the early evening. Some
will have the potential to be on the strong side...with reduced
visibility in heavy rain and also the possibility of strong wind
gusts 25kt+ (more than likely out of a northerly direction).
Trailing shra and a few embedded storms will generally be tapering
off in the 1-4z timeframe.

Mostly VFR conditions with some 8-12k ceilings overnight...though
wouldn`t be surprised to see some patchy fog development should
there be any brief breaks in the clouds considering wet grounds.

Heading into the sunrise hours, model guidance is hinting at some
tstm development near the coast (GLS/LBX) eventually expanding
inland into the Houston terminals in the mid-late morning.
Confidence isn`t particularly high on the details and will be
dependent on how worked over the atmos becomes after todays
storms and where boundaries end up. That said there is enough of a
consensus to add some TEMPO`s.

47

&&

.MARINE...

Light to moderate onshore winds can be expected over the next few
days. Mariners should be wary heading into the evening as showers
and thunderstorms approach the Gulf waters from the north. This may
bring more turbulent winds and seas at times. Winds and seas should
increase into this weekend, potentially warranting caution flags
during the overnight hours. Periods of showers and thunderstorms
will be possible in the coming days with rain chances improving
into next week as a more active weather pattern sets in.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 72 92 75 95 / 80 60 20 20
Houston (IAH) 74 91 76 92 / 70 60 20 50
Galveston (GLS) 78 89 82 90 / 60 70 20 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...47
MARINE...03
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jasons2k
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Life in the 🍩
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jasons2k
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Right on the edge, at least some rain but geez. Again.
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djmike
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Sure not a solid line like I was expecting. Numerous cells all over the place. Hope everyone gets something this evening.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
brazoriatx
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Pretty wimpy line
suprdav2
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Lots of lightning and thunder and wind, a few sprinkles......then nothing.

Cypress forcefield holding strong. Ugh!
Cromagnum
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Fierce thunderstorms in all directions but Iowa Colony force field holding for now. We'll see if I catch a break. It's like I'm Jasons2k's twin. Anytime he gets donuted, so do I.

Image
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don
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Severe thunderstorm moving into metro Houston.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
521 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northwestern Galveston County in southeastern Texas...
East central Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
Northern Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...
South central Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 545 PM CDT.

* At 520 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over The Galleria,
or over Greenway / Upper Kirby Area, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Pearland, eastern Missouri City, northern Friendswood, Stafford,
South Houston, Bellaire, West University Place, northern Manvel,
Hunters Creek Village, Bunker Hill Village, Piney Point Village,
Downtown Houston, Greenway / Upper Kirby Area, Spring Branch North,
Second Ward, Greater Heights, Fresno, South Belt / Ellington,
Neartown / Montrose and Memorial Park.
Cromagnum
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Ok. Now it sounds like Raiden and Thor are battling it out now. All those cells collapsed on top of me.
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jasons2k
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Finally some rain.
0.41” so far and tapering off. I’m grateful for what I got but would love to get a big red cell right over me for a change.
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don
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Getting a nice soaking at the moment. :)
Stratton20
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And this is just the start of a long duration wet weather pattern! Thank you mother nature!
suprdav2
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jasons2k wrote: Thu Aug 18, 2022 5:55 pm Finally some rain.
0.41” so far and tapering off. I’m grateful for what I got but would love to get a big red cell right over me for a change.
Glad you're finally getting some. Still sitting at 0.00" here.
davidiowx
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Yay me! Got a big ole fat donut hole!
txbear
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Yep we west burbs got hosed big time. Hope there’s more tonight. Pretty darn disappointing

ETA: but glad for those that got some. Hope those in the brazos valley and folks like cromag cashed in
Last edited by txbear on Thu Aug 18, 2022 6:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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don
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Videos coming in of hail and wind damage in Pearland.Edit Flash flood warning issued
Flash Flood Warning
TXC039-167-201-190045-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.W.0007.220818T2259Z-220819T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
559 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
North Central Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...
Northwestern Galveston County in southeastern Texas...
Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 745 PM CDT.

* At 559 PM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between
1 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is
1 to 3 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3
inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing
or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Pearland, League City, Friendswood, Alvin, Webster, northern
Manvel, southern South Belt / Ellington, southern Clear Lake,
Nassau Bay, Brookside Village, Minnetex and The Johnson Space
Center.

This includes the following Low Water Crossings...
Deepwood Drive and nearby low lying roads, Sunset Drive at Cowart
Creek, East Edgewood Drive at Marys Creek, Moss Point and nearby low
lying roads, Winding Road and nearby low lying roads, Beamer Road at
Turkey Creek, Baker Rd at Cowart Creek, Access Rd at Cowart Creek,
Mary Crossing at Mary`s Creek and Country Club Drive at Chigger
Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National
Weather Service when you can do so safely.


&&
Last edited by don on Thu Aug 18, 2022 6:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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jasons2k
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Another Krispy Kreme..
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ajurcat
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At 5:12, I received a text from HCFWS that White Oak Bayou @ Fairbanks North Houston recorded 1.0 inch of rain in 15 minutes.
I can attest to this as I was driving on Fairbanks during that time.
Cromagnum
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Been pouring for 30 minutes and looks like more coming. Some of the loudest thunder I have ever heard in my life.
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