August 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
suprdav2
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Ended up with .06". Take what I can get.
Cromagnum
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Not raining much anymore but still plenty of lightning and LOUD thunder. I have never heard it like this before.

Managed a pinch over 2 inches here. Thats more than the combined amount I have seen since May until now.
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Katdaddy
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Picked up another 1.83” so far with light rain falling.
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DoctorMu
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Maybe that's the secret. We were out of town for the first time since the May 26 rain.

About 0.4 inches, maybe more in CLL. Based on KBTX maps - I estimate 1.2 in of rain IMY. Amazing.

Nice shelf cloud observed looking westward toward Auston from the Hwy 290, Hwy 21 interchange.
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DoctorMu
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No surprise. Welcome return to "normal" weather beginning today.
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Cromagnum
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Lots of rumbles from the southwest this morning as storms track towards the northeast. Would be good to get a reinforcing soak today. Ground was so dry I can't even tell it stormed yesterday, as it has all been absorbed.
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don
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Getting another round of heavy rain again this morning. 🙂
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tireman4
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Nice thundershower on the way to work. Thirty minutes late to Gulfgate...
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tireman4
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 190936
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
436 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Saturday Night]...

A quiet morning so far across SE TX, but will be expecting a return
of active weather later today. Short-range models seem to be focus-
ing on low level convergence along the weak surface boundary at the
start of the day...with storms building northward as the line moves
slowly inland. Daytime heating, abundant moisture (PWs 2.2 to 2.4"),
leftover boundaries (outflow or otherwise) and progs of a diffluent
pattern aloft should produce decent coverage with pockets of moder-
ate to heavy rains. While locations across the southern half of the
CWA did receive some healthy rainfall amounts yesterday, likely go-
ing to hold off on any Flood Watches for today even with the Slight
Risk of Excessive Rainfall from WPC`s Day 1 for this area. The very
dry antecedent conditions appear to be working in our favor regard-
ing this. So, the bottom line for today: another round(s) of storms
with embedded heavy rainfall is expected. Rainfall amounts to aver-
age from 1 to 2 inches, but isolated amounts from 3 to 5 inches may
be possible with training or stronger storms.

Activity should decrease late this evening into the overnight hours
with patchy fog/low clouds possible. Will keep POPs on the elevated
side for tomorrow`s forecast - owing to daytime heating, a leftover
boundary or two, lingering moisture and/or the sea breeze. Isolated
development to start at/near the coast early in the morning, before
spreading inland through the day. As for our temperatures today and
tomorrow, will continue the trend of slightly above NBM numbers for
highs (even with the clouds/rain). Low temperatures should stick to
normals. 41

&&

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...

Rain chances will be in the forecast every day as a trough axis becomes
established and persists across the state. Periods of showers and
thunderstorms can be expected, and locally heavy rainfall will be
possible almost daily as precipitable water values remain around
or above two inches for nearly the entire period. Most locations,
especially the further north you go, will probably end up with good
soaking rainfall totals of at least 1 to 3 inches with some isolated
spots reaching or exceeding 5 inches. If any of these amounts happen
in a short period of time, especially at spots where some heavy rain
has fallen previously, flooding could become an issue. We`ll also
need to keep an eye on rising levels of area rivers/creeks/bayous.
With the expected clouds and rains, daytime high temperatures could
end up struggling to top 90 degrees in the Tuesday through Friday
time period.

42

&&

.MARINE...

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds can be expected today.
Winds and seas should increase over the weekend, potentially warranting
caution flags mainly during the overnight hours. Periods of showers
and thunderstorms will be possible in the coming days with rain chances
increasing into next week as a more active weather pattern sets in.

42

&&

.TROPICAL...

From the National Hurricane Center`s 1 AM CDT Tropical Weather Outlook,
there are medium formation chances (40% through 48 hours and through
5 days) for the broad area of low pressure that is emerging over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico. At this time, it appears that any significant
effects from this system should remain well south of our forecast area
as it moves to the northwest and eventually works its way inland over
northeast Mexico.

42

.AVIATION...

[12Z TAF Issuance]...

Another messy active day is expected as the weak boundary moves back
north across SE TX. Patchy areas of low clouds/fog possible for some
terminals this morning...then evolving to VCSH/VCTS heading into the
afternoon. Activity should decrease during the evening with a return
of patchy fog/low clouds possible tonight into early Sat morning. At
this time, not planning on too many major changes from previous pack-
age. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 76 98 77 / 50 20 30 20
Houston (IAH) 93 76 95 77 / 60 20 60 20
Galveston (GLS) 91 82 92 83 / 60 20 50 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$
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don
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Special update just issued for 99L. While 99L may not hit us directly its moisture looks to be absorbed into the frontal system.Believe it or not the moisture from the TD/98L that went into South Texas a few days ago will also be picked up by the frontal system over the desert southwest.Both could play a big role in rainfall amounts next week.
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1050 AM EDT Fri Aug 19 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of the disturbance in
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Satellite imagery indicates that showers and thunderstorms
associated with the broad low pressure area over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico and the Bay of Campeche are getting better organized.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for additional
development, and a tropical depression could form later today or
on Saturday while the system moves northwestward across the
southwestern and western Gulf of Mexico. However, by Saturday
night, the system is expected to move inland over northeastern
Mexico, which will end its chances of development. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system this afternoon. Interests along the northeastern coast of
Mexico and the lower Texas coast should monitor the progress of
this system. Regardless of development, this system could bring
locally heavy rains to portions of northeastern Mexico and southern
Texas over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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