August 2022

[Cromagnum]

Amazed that the global models don't pick up on 99L. Looks like this is going to be a sneaky one.

[Stratton20]

Reconnaissance flight should be heading out soon, 99L is sure giving all the models the middle finger haha,

[Cromagnum]

Looks like the corridor that missed the other day got some today? Hopefully.

[brazoriatx]

99L now has a 70% chance

[Texashawk]

99L now has a 70% chance

I’m so confused. If this is going to be a significant tropical system in this area, why does the RGV have almost a zero inch 7-day QPF forecast?

[djmike]

Also noticed the models are trending northward a bit. Not quite to TX but wonder if that trend will continue.

[DoctorMu]

I am witnessing actual, measurable rain at my house for the first time since May 5th. I'm not kidding. It rained twice while we were in Minnesota in late May. We were out of town yesterday during the rain storm.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 191745
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1245 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

.AVIATION...
Rain and embedded storms stretching from Huntsville-Conroe-
Sugarland-Matagorda producing some localized heavy rainfall with
rates in the 1-3"/hour range. Ceilings in the MVFR/IFR territory
near this activity. Atmosphere over the other metro & coastal airports
should be pretty worked over...so although areas of precip will
continue for a few more hours it should be more manageable in
terms of intensity and ceilings. Further nw toward CLL, daytime
heating will probably initiate some tstms as the day progresses.

Think most activity will wane during the late afternoon and
eveninghours. Mid/upper clouds may scatter out enough overnight
for some patchy fog development. Outside of that, VFR conditions
should prevail.

Look for some late night sct shra/tstm development off the coast
followed by scattered, diurnally driven, precip inland with
daytime heating. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 90 76 95 75 / 60 10 20 10
Houston (IAH) 89 77 94 77 / 80 20 50 20
Galveston (GLS) 88 82 90 82 / 80 20 50 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

[Stratton20]

We now have PTC#4 in the BOC, expected to become tropical storm Danielle tommorow, first cone takes this into far NE Mexico, however it appears the convection is all to the E-NE of where they found a “weak center” maybe an area to watch to see if a circulation works down to the surface, further underneath that convection, this would have an effect on the track

[don]

PTC #4 track.

[jasons2k]

I was stuck in another donut hole for most of the morning. No screen shots because I had left my phone in my wife's vehicle. Anyway, this went on for hours but it felt like months. Finally, I got some moderate rain at the house but I missed the heavy stuff again. I got 0.44"

Not bad but still seeking out that soaker. Things may be aligning for that to "finally" happen but I don't want to jinx it.

[jasons2k]

This came from Jeff Lindner at 4:27PM. My apologies for the delay - it's been a busy day...

NHC has begun advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone #4

Tropical Storm Warnings are issued for the western Gulf coast from Boca de Catan, MX to Port Mansfield, TX including the southern Laguna Madre.

Discussion:

USAF plane investigating 99L this afternoon was unable to close off a defined low level circulation and instead found mainly southeast winds with very weak winds on the southwest edge of the large mass of deep convection. IR Satellite Loop for Invest 99L | Tropical Tidbits It is possible that a low level center may form near the southwest edge of the thunderstorms where the plane found weak winds, or a new low level circulation to develop further to the northeast closer to the deep thunderstorms and the mid level circulation. The plane did find an area of 25-30kt winds well to the northeast of the weak wind field near the active thunderstorms.

Track:

The system is generally moving toward the NW at around 15mph on the southwestern edge of a mid level high pressure ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and this motion is expected to continue through the next 24-36 hours bringing the center ashore near the northeast coast of Mexico just south of the Rio Grande River. While there is some uncertainty in exactly where a low level center will form there is fairly high confidence on a general NW track through 48 hours and the guidance cluster is showing little spread.

Intensity:

The system is in favorable conditions for development with light vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures and good upper level outflow to the north, south, and east. Additionally, developing tropical systems in this part of the Gulf of Mexico tend to have some help in developing due to the shape of the coastline which can help tighten a developing low level circulation. 99L is expected to make landfall as a 45mph tropical storm in 24 hours, although most guidance keeps the system in the 35-40mph range and the system will only have about 24 hours over the water. Tropical storm conditions may extend as far north as deep southern Texas depending on exactly where the center eventually forms.

It is likely 99L will become absorbed into the incoming low pressure and frontal system over Texas early next week and this may help to enhance already high forecasted rainfall amounts.

[Dls2010r]

Is that a good or bad thing Jason?

[Cpv17]

I was stuck in another donut hole for most of the morning. No screen shots because I had left my phone in my wife's vehicle. Anyway, this went on for hours but it felt like months. Finally, I got some moderate rain at the house but I missed the heavy stuff again. I got 0.44"

Not bad but still seeking out that soaker. Things may be aligning for that to "finally" happen but I don't want to jinx it.

Next week is looking mighty interesting. Btw I’ve gotten 2.8” since yesterday. Amazing!

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 yup, Euro has some pretty big totals for next week

[jasons2k]

Is that a good or bad thing Jason?

If you want rain, yes a good thing.

[Katdaddy]

Picked up another 1.65" earlier today.

[davidiowx]

I had a nice donut hole yesterday and was feeling pretty blah about it thinking the atmosphere was worked over after those storms. Woke up this morning and it started pouring around 7:15am and ended up with 2.02” today! Hallelujah!

[SLM87TX]

Well north of huntsville still sitting at 0.04. My dust is still safe from being mud. Glad to hear other people good luck.

[Cpv17]

Well north of huntsville still sitting at 0.04. My dust is still safe from being mud. Glad to hear other people good luck.

I was just north of Huntsville the past couple days in Lovelady for work and it rained pretty good there yesterday late in the afternoon.