August 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Waded
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I get frustration with weather forecasts. It's super common. Google "weather rock." What can really burn me out is the forecasts regarding tropical cyclones. I remember a few years ago a big hurricane was forecasted to hit SETX, evacuations were started, I was mobilized to do 12-hour night shifts, and then the storm went into LA. My life and the life of many others experienced significant disruptions, and we didn't even get any rain.

But with these type of more minor forecasts, I can am much more blasé. Jeff did say in one of his emails that the confidence of rain was high, but the confidence in the location and amounts of rain was low. I've gotten zero inches of rain here near Nassau Bay in the last 24 hours. .020 inches in the last two days. But I'm not sweating it. Houston is not arguably the flood capital of the US because it doesn't rain. It will come.
Last edited by Waded on Tue Aug 23, 2022 4:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
869MB
Posts: 148
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Location: Katy, TX
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user:null wrote: Tue Aug 23, 2022 1:56 pm Honestly, from ABC13 to Space City Weather, all these forecasters just suck. All you see is lipservice and flimsy ad hoc justifications, there's no real substance at all.

NWS discussion tends to be the most informative. But even there, some of the same faults can occur, as seen in @Cromagnum's above screenshot.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
251 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022

We've pushed deep enough into our messy week to gain at least some
clarity on the rainfall situation for the rest of the week.
Earlier rains stayed progressive enough that, outside of a couple
isolated instances, flooding did not become a concern. And though
the front has stalled over our area, it is becoming weak and
diffuse enough that without the earlier rain creating an area more
susceptible to flooding, we've been able to cancel the flood
watch we had in place.

That's not to say the rest of the week is dry - we're definitely
going to continue to see dreary, rainy conditions through the rest
of the week. In fact, the strongest storms could still cause very
isolated flooding issues if they happen to occur over spots known
to flood easily. It's more that this type of threat is not much
different from the typical, baseline flooding threat we see from
storm development in this area. So, bright side, the potential for
a concentrated, elevated flooding threat is much diminished. Down
side, this is still Southeast Texas and things can still escalate
quickly in localized spots when storms happen.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022

Welp, that flood watch turned out to be an awful forecast by me.
Don't get me wrong - if I'm going to bust, I'd rather have put out
a watch and not needed it than to have skipped the watch and wish
I had issued one. But I'd really much rather have just made the
right forecast in the first place.

One thing I was right about was to be suspicious of the model
guidance on a situation so driven by mesoscale influences. It just
turns out I mistrusted in the wrong direction. Rather than bog
down and stall out over our north, yesterday's storms appeared to
stay progressive enough to shove right on through to the coastal
plain, keeping rainfall amounts manageable for all but a handful
of spots for which flood advisories were issued.

So, from here on out...I'm going to remain suspicious of the model
guidance, particularly the deterministic stuff. Ultimately, we
still have an environment that should support continued periods of
shower and storm development. We've got 2+ inches of precipitable
water, a stalled out boundary, and some inflow from the Gulf to
continue the moisture supply. But...that inflow is a little
veered, so probably not as efficient as it could be. Plenty of
cloud cover will probably hold back boundary layer heating, which
may limit instability somewhat. And, really, the vertical
structure of the atmosphere from boundary layer to upper levels
don't look particularly exceptional for supporting lift. It is
definitely a mixed bag for supporting stronger storms and high
rain rates...and once we removed training/slow moving storms from
the equation, I really do think we find ourselves back closer to
the baseline threat level of flooding rain for the area (I just
hope I haven't swung back too far the other direction in my
thinking and am missing some mesoscale feature that could promote
flooding).
Dls2010r
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There scientists. I totally respect Jeff. I like Matt too. My favorite is Dr. Neil Frank.

Give them a break.
Cpv17
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Dls2010r wrote: Tue Aug 23, 2022 4:25 pm There scientists. I totally respect Jeff. I like Matt too. My favorite is Dr. Neil Frank.

Give them a break.
Personally, my favorite is David Paul.
user:null
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Location: The Land of Sugar
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869MB wrote: Tue Aug 23, 2022 4:08 pmArea Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
251 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022

[snip]
The forecast update was not posted at the time that I made my initial comment. But, yes, as you can see, that's exactly the type of writeup that I consider worthy and respectable for me — I did mention that detailed NWS discussions (and other similarly detailed sources) tended to be the most informative.

But everything else just plain sucks.
Stratton20
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Location: College Station, Texas
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Cpv17 David Paul is Amazing
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Rip76
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Location: The Woodlands
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Cpv17 wrote: Tue Aug 23, 2022 4:43 pm
Dls2010r wrote: Tue Aug 23, 2022 4:25 pm There scientists. I totally respect Jeff. I like Matt too. My favorite is Dr. Neil Frank.

Give them a break.
Personally, my favorite is David Paul.
Same here. It used to be Neil now it’s David Paul.
Or has been for quite some time.
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jasons2k
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Yes….Neil Frank, Harold Taft, Roy Leep, James Spann, Pat Prokop, John Hope…all some of the best OCMs.

Dave Schwartz was always a riot - especially on a late Fri or Sat night. 😀😀😀

So it’s 95 degrees here. How is that not unstable enough to kick-off some storms? Unbelievable.
Cromagnum
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Looks like a whole lot of nothing again today. What a joke.
davidiowx
Posts: 1062
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2014 2:39 pm
Location: Richmond, TX
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Meso models look pretty bleak as well. Isolated to scattered showers over the next few days. Considering how most of our luck has been, it will be a trace for a few and hot and humid with minimal wind for the rest of us. :roll:
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