August 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
davidiowx
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djmike wrote: Wed Aug 24, 2022 6:12 pm Is the front still stalled or will it make it to the coast by tomorrow?
It’s still stalled. Will probably wash out
cperk
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I'm happy with the .85 inches of rain i received today lets keep this wet period going.
suprdav2
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Managed a good 1.45" today out here in Cypress! Grass nice and tall and finally needs a good mowing.
Cpv17
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I got .50” yesterday and another .60” today!
Scott747
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0z ICON and GFS are in the general ballpark of agreement through the end of the ICON run. GFS does a few weird things but doesn't look unreasonable as it doesn't get fully picked up and resumes a w/wnw once in the gulf.

Still some wide fluctuations from run to run but once you remove the noise the general guidance hasn't changed much these last 48 hrs with whatever does form potentially tracking towards the w caribbean or gulf.
Stratton20
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Scott747 that is something to watch, but something else on the 00z GEFS over the next ~5 days or so, kind of has some interest to me, maybe some energy getting pulled north? Only a handful of members, but maybe something sneaky?
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DoctorMu
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It varied from neighborhood to neighborhood but 1.66 in of rain over the last week in CLL.
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djmike
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My percentage dropped dramatically for today Thurs. Was 80% now down to 30-40%. I guess storms will be offshore more today than they expected.
Mike
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(IH-10 & College Street)
Scott747
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Interest in the disturbance that's now currently entering the Eastern Caribbean continues to build.

Getting some decent signals from both the Euro and GFS ensembles and operational GFS (though it seems a little slow.) of it gaining organization as it nears Jamaica with a w or wnw heading as enters the Gulf. Op GFS 6z has a major into Matagorda Bay around Labor Day which we know is in that proverbial 'grain of salt' range.

Likelihood that there will be significant changes going forward but the guidance is pretty strong in the mid range of 'something' on a heading that always gets my attention as it enters the Gulf.
Cromagnum
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Huge rain near Matagorda Bay
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ECMWF EPS were more favorable overnight of a system forming across the Gulf. The 06Z GEFS remains bullish on development too. Either way, we are 10+ days out from possible landfall and even the more aggressive GFS doesn't show any organization until the middle/late part of next week.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 250829
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
329 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tomorrow Night)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022

Diffuse frontal boundary should be situated along the coast today.
Like yesterday, 2.0-2.4" PW`s will be pooled in advance in addition
to fairly weak steering flow. As such, the potential for some heavy
downpours exists. HREF members and TTU WRF all support the idea of
the more significant rain/storms might be situated just off the
coast. Exception could be right around the Matagorda Bay area
between now and about midday when some better upper diffluence would
aid in regeneration/training and a potential for several inches of
rain in a short time period. Will be throwing in the locally heavy
rain wording into the fcst/grids there. Further inland, PW`s drop
off and the presence of some mid level dry air and subsidence should
limit coverage the further north and west one goes.

Precip should mostly taper off toward evening. The diffuse front
should begin lifting back to the north Friday and eventually washout
Friday night. As this occurs, look for a return to more of a typical
summertime diurnally driven precip cycle (sct activity near the coast
late night & mornings followed by inland during the day). 47

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022

The last weekend of August/climatological Summer will still see the
continued chance of showers and thunderstorms, however the
coverage will be less than the past several days. The weak mid
level trough will be sliding eastward on Saturday to be closer to
the Louisiana coastline. This will keep the best upper level
support for precipitation mostly off the SE Texas coast on
Saturday. However, PWATs will still be near 2 inches which
combined with daytime heating will mean isolated showers and
thunderstorms will still be possible with the best chance for rain
being along the coast. Sunday is looking pretty similar, but that
trough may meander back westward Sunday night increasing the
chance of showers/storms on Monday. This disturbance ends up
getting picked up by a trough passing through the Great Lakes
region bringing it eastwards Tuesday into Wednesday.


Precipitation chances Tuesday and Wednesday for SE Texas is a bit
uncertain. There will be a boundary set up across the Central
Plains into the Upper Mississippi River Valley that may enhance
the precipitation for our region if it happens to slide further
south. This time yesterday guidance had it almost reaching the
coast, while this morning`s guidance has it remaining near the Red
River Valley. I am leaning more towards this further northern
solution as there isn`t much of a driving force behind the
boundary to push it all the way down here. It`s also still August
which isn`t really known for fronts for us. Nevertheless, PWATs
will be remaining high through Wednesday which will lead to at
least some isolated showers and thunderstorms.

Temperatures through the long term will be more of the same with
afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s (slightly cooler along the
coast) and overnight mins in the mid to upper 70s (slightly warmer
along the coast).

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022

Shra/tstm chances should be highest along the coast and offshore
today. Will probably not mention the possibility of precip in TAFs
north of IAH. VFR conditions are mainly expected through the
period...with the exception of in/near any stronger cells and also
in spotty late night or early morning fog. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 224 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022

Light to occasionally moderate south to southeasterly flow will
persist through the first half of next week with seas remaining
near 2 to 3 feet. The onshore flow will strengthen slightly during
the overnight hours that may result in times where small craft
should exercise caution. There will be a chance of showers and
thunderstorms through the next week bringing locally higher seas
and gusty/variable winds.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 94 75 94 75 / 20 20 40 30
Houston (IAH) 92 75 92 76 / 30 20 60 20
Galveston (GLS) 90 79 90 80 / 50 30 40 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Fowler
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jasons2k
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I don't like to publicly post about gut feelings and superstitions as I prefer to stick with the science. But I have experienced a couple of weird feelings the last couple of days. Two days ago, when I did my first long range analysis of the system in the Caribbean, I got a sinking feeling, a pit in my stomach that overcame me. Can't describe the feeling but it was that gut feeling of 'this one's headed this way'

Yes, it was a weird emotional, superstitious reaction to a forecast almost two weeks out, but it was the same feeling I had in 2008 with Ike when he was way out in the open Atlantic. The first time I saw that monster high, I saw the pattern and it made me have a physical reaction like "uh oh" -- so there's that.

Back to the other day. While looking at the maps, I was listening to a random radio station on Amazon and the song "Disturbia" started playing. Now that song...I haven't heard it in a few years probably - and it came on right then. The thing about that song is that it was my mental soundtrack when Ike was headed this way. It was popular on the radio at the time (I love Rihanna too) and I was constantly playing it and since then, I have always associated that song with Ike. That's the second thing of weirdness.

Combine that feeling with what I see on the models (it eerily is a pattern like Harvey, and like Harvey, I don't expect this storm to ramp-up until the end) and as Han would say..... "I have a bad feeling about this"
Last edited by jasons2k on Thu Aug 25, 2022 11:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
Cpv17
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I would say it just crashes into Mexico as of right now but that’s very premature to say that.
Stratton20
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Well this does appear to likely be a western gulf threat, that i can say with pretty good confidence based off of guidance, where it goes though is beyond certain
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Aug 25, 2022 9:40 am Well this does appear to likely be a western gulf threat, that i can say with pretty good confidence based off of guidance, where it goes though is beyond certain
I’m thinking tomorrow we get an invest on this. Possibly later today.
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tireman4
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Maybe this just me, but it was a little odd that HGX did not give the AFD in the 12 noon hour. They waited until 3:45 to give it. ( They normally will give a 12 and a 3 ish. Just odd.
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DoctorMu
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I'm just enjoying the "cooler," cloudier, rainier weather. Just time time - some of the grass in the back and a patch in front was dying despite sprinklers running every other day. A little less than 2 months before brown patch season to grow back. :lol: The lawn is looking almost emerald color in the front this morning!
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DoctorMu
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Because...GFS.


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jasons2k
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Is it just me or is the low in Louisiana retrograding?
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