August 2022

[Cpv17]

I don’t think he believes this plows into Nicaragua based on his previous comments, so the 2nd vorticity depicted on the GFS is a non-issue. Yes, a phantom, but the problem with the GFS is before we even get that far in the run….it’s junk.

Yeah I’m not even really paying attention to what it does once it gets to the western Caribbean. Key takeaway for me is that it looks like there’s a pretty good consensus that it’s going that direction and if it does there’s a good chance it’ll make it into the Gulf. In a few more days we’ll have a better idea of which part of the Gulf it’ll go.

[Stratton20]

Im not sure where the energy is coming from on the GFS, could be a convective feedback issue , this wave is going to be a headache to watch itlf the models are pulling in random vorts from other places

[tireman4]

Back home...we have a 12 noonish AFD..


.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022

Area should see some SHRA/TSRA development this afternoon (already seeing
some in/around GLS) with the greatest concentration probably setting
up near and to the south of a VCT to SGR/HOU to BPT line. Cannot rule
out development further inland, but not confident enough at this time
to mention in the 18Z TAFs and further north of IAH. Expect things to
quiet down this evening with mostly VFR skies prevailing overnight
(might see some isolated mainly MVFR fog development). Looks like a
quiet morning with most of tomorrow`s SHRA/TSRA development holding
off until the afternoon hours. 42

[Cpv17]

Im not sure where the energy is coming from on the GFS, could be a convective feedback issue , this wave is going to be a headache to watch itlf the models are pulling in random vorts from other places

Follow the vorticity very closely on the GFS and you’ll see that the system it sends into Central America isn’t the same system that we’re focusing on. The one that it sends into CA develops off a piece of energy that comes off SA.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 Seems like the euro does something similar, so the NHC may have this marked but the models are picking up some other vort coming off of SA? What a fun time ahead lol

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 Seems like the euro does something similar, so the NHC may have this marked but the models are picking up some other vort coming off of SA? What a fun time ahead lol

It’s confusing a lot of people and confusing the models too but if you look closely enough you can see what I’m talking about.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 I see what you are talking about, Euro 12z has a broad weak area of low pressure near the yucatan at hour 120

[Cpv17]

It appears to me that on the 12z Euro our system gets sucked into the SA system and that’s why you’re seeing such a southerly track. So I’m thinking we’ll have two competing areas of vorticity and which one wins out will determine what’s going to happen. This is just my amateur observation.

[Cpv17]

The CPC is sticking with a slight chance for excessive rainfall for us during the first week of September which I find really interesting.

[Stratton20]

12z EPS has slightly increased in support for the potential gulf system fwiw

[Pas_Bon]

The CPC is sticking with a slight chance for excessive rainfall for us during the first week of September which I find really interesting.

There’s only one thing that map could depict. And we all know what that is.

[jasons2k]

It's going to be very interesting around here a week from now. You can pin it.

[jasons2k]

FWIW Meteorologists aren't paid to "follow model guidance."

They are paid to make a forecast. Big difference that seems to get lost more as time passes.

[DoctorMu]

It appears to me that on the 12z Euro our system gets sucked into the SA system and that’s why you’re seeing such a southerly track. So I’m thinking we’ll have two competing areas of vorticity and which one wins out will determine what’s going to happen. This is just my amateur observation.

Yeah, tropical mischief around Labor Day seems very possible. All the ingredients are in place. Strength, location, vector will be mysterious for awhile until consensus of ensembles, models, and when ACTUAL MEASURED DATA can be integrated into the models.

[DoctorMu]

It's going to be very interesting around here a week from now. You can pin it.

The andouille is in the iron skillet caramelizing. Chicken, shrimp, oysters at the ready. The Gulf roux is nearing optimal PW. The Turbo trinity of celery, white onions, red peppers, garlic, and green onions chopped and ready. The cajun spice HEAT is on with white pepper, black pepper, cayenne, sea salt, thyme, oregano, paprika. No shear in the parboiled rice. NO effing OKRA. Filé as the thickening agent only.

Tropical Gumbo season is ON.

[sambucol]

It appears to me that on the 12z Euro our system gets sucked into the SA system and that’s why you’re seeing such a southerly track. So I’m thinking we’ll have two competing areas of vorticity and which one wins out will determine what’s going to happen. This is just my amateur observation.

Yeah, tropical mischief around Labor Day seems very possible. All the ingredients are in place. Strength, location, vector will be mysterious for awhile until consensus of ensembles, models, and when ACTUAL MEASURED DATA can be integrated into the models.

Is recon scheduled for the system?

[Scott747]

Both 18z GFS and ICON (out to 120 hrs) have a similar solution so it's not that outlandish. Plus the GFS isn't budging. Not that in any upcoming run it won't completely drop what it's showing now.

[Stratton20]

18z GFS with a Category 4 into far NE Mexico extreme South Texas, nasty run, but definitely raising an eye brow since the GFS refuses to back away from its strong storm solutions

[TexasBreeze]

It appears to be a large system too on the runs with far reaching effects.

[biggerbyte]

Hmmm. A large sized system with an early projected landfall south. Sound familiar?