August 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
suprdav2
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1.58" so far today!
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DoctorMu
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0.35 inches in brief showers today. We could have had another 1-2 in. but a strong cell just SE of us went outflow on us as the sun began to mosey toward the western horizon. While we could use more of a soaking, I'm simply glad to see the start of the Fall semester and CFB, because that means that rain finally returns to the Brazos Valley.

The Gulf giveth and she taketh away. For the foreseeable future she giveth.

Adios Death Ridge for the year?

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
634 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

A mid/upper level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico
continues to push northwestward this afternoon. The system has
brought a surge of PWAT as well as enhanced lift. These factors
coupled with added surface convergence (especially near the coast)
and some daytime heating has resulted in widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity today. Sufficient moisture levels exist for
locally torrential rainfall. Fortunately, these showers and storms
have been moving fast enough to mitigate their flood potential.
That being said, localized flooding will remain a concern due to
the high rainfall rates (up to 2 to 3 inches per hour) associated
with some of these storms.
We should see a decrease in shower and
thunderstorm activity this evening. However, the break from the
rain is not expected to last long.

The aforementioned trough offshore will push into our region tonight
bringing with it another surge of high PWAT values as moisture is
advected northward in the system`s wake.
Variance in the model
guidance regarding the location of the highest PWATs as well as the
amount of increase in those PWAT values results in uncertainty
regarding where the best chance of heavy rainfall will be late
tonight and early tomorrow morning. As of this update, our highest
06z to 12z PoPs are south of I-10 and west of I-45.
But our PoPs
grids are showing 50 percent or greater for most of the CWA during
that time frame. It was tempting to extend higher PoPs farther
north in our western counties.
PWAT values could decrease somewhat
by tomorrow afternoon. Despite decreasing, most of the guidance
suggests that PWAT will remain elevated enough to support
convective development as daytime heating increases.

The rain today and the expected rain late tonight into tomorrow will
help the drought situation. In addition, afternoon temperatures
today are much cooler than normal. Some locations near the coast
have been hovering in the low 80s. Many communities may find
themselves remaining below 90 once again tomorrow. So there are
silver linings in this rainy forecast.

Self

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

Bottom line looking at a continuation of the wet pattern we have
been in through the long term period.
At 500 mb...broad W to E
elongated ridge extends from So Cal through OK and AR with
shortwave energy periodically coming across the area from E to W
across the forecast area. Airmass very moist and generally
unstable so very little barrier to convective initiation. By
Friday 500 mb pattern evolves with upper ridge pulling west
replaced by more of a NW to SE upper trough with a continued moist
airmass...still suggesting a wet pattern.


At surface...a cold front with much drier air sags south over the
eastern half of CONUS...getting as close AR...LA...NE TX. Canadian
model actually pushes the front through SE TX Friday bringing
drier air to SE TX but think this scenario very unlikely. In any
case the proximity of the surface boundary and the positioning of
the upper trough to the NW with continued moist and unstable
airmass keeps rain chances high through the period.

Reilly

&&
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snowman65
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not to change the subject...but to change the subject...any fronts on the horizon to wash some of this out? Ive had more than enough rain the last 2 weeks.
Cpv17
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snowman65 wrote: Mon Aug 29, 2022 8:46 pm not to change the subject...but to change the subject...any fronts on the horizon to wash some of this out? Ive had more than enough rain the last 2 weeks.
The rainy pattern is here to stay for at least the next week or two. Who knows after that.
Cpv17
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I picked up 1.75” today! At my job in El Campo right on 59 we probably got 3 or 4” though. I haven’t seen it rain that hard for so long in a hot minute!
Stratton20
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00z CMC has a potential heavy rain event for SE and Central Texas around the 3/4th fwiw
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DoctorMu
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Green grass - yeah, I’m just going to have to suck it up. 8-) ;)
Cpv17
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The WPC is already highlighting our area for flood potential on Saturday and this is on day 5. So this has potential to increase to a moderate risk and expand into Sunday as well.

Image
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tireman4
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From HGX


The wet weather pattern will continue through the next few days as a
few upper level features move across TX. Today, an upper level low
will progress southward from New Mexico into Western TX and continue
into the Baja California region through Thursday. As it does so, a
few weak upper level shortwaves will move across northern and
central TX on Wednesday. With persistent onshore flow supplying
ample amounts of moisture across Southeast TX (PWs varying between
2.1 to 2.5 inches during the day today and Wednesday) areas of
showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop. A few rounds of
heavy rainfall can be expected on occasion, but in general, the
total rainfall amounts (roughly 0.5 to 2.0 inches) expected each day
should not pose a significant threat of flooding. However, areas
that do experience slow moving heavy rainfall could have some minor
flood issues and ponding of water along roadways and construction
sites. Stay updated with the latest forecasts and head caution while
driving in rain.

Temperatures today will be on the "cooler" side thanks to the cloudy
skies and rain, and highs will range in the upper 80s to low 90s.
The lows tonight into Wednesday morning will be in the mid to upper
70s inland and in the upper 70s to low 80s along the coasts. The
highs on Wednesday will be in the low 90s areawide.
Stratton20
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Hard Pass on Saturday, hope its dry🤞
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jasons2k
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Another day of Livin’ on the Edge…

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7nqcL0mjMjw
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snowman65
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I gotta fly out of hobby saturday for Bham. Hope we dont have to go to Chicago to get around storms. I already see a nightmare at the airport.
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srainhoutx
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mcd0907 (1).gif
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0907
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
956 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022

Areas affected...Portions of Eastern and Central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 301400Z - 302000Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in
both coverage and intensity through the morning, becoming
widespread with rain rates of 2-4"/hr possible. This will likely
result in areas of 2-4" of rainfall with local amounts above 5"
possible. Flash flooding is likely.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this morning indicates
rapidly expanding coverage of showers and thunderstorms from the
eastern Hill Country through the coastal plain of Texas. This
convection is building in extremely favorable thermodynamics
characterized by GPS measured by 12Z U/A soundings at FWD and CRP
of 2.14 and 2.33 inches, respectively, both well above the 90th
percentile and near daily records. MUCAPE according to the SPC RAP
is already 1000-2000 J/kg, which combined with the anomalous PWs
is helping to already produce radar estimated rain rates of 2"/hr
according KGRK WSR-88D.

The forcing for ascent is already impressive and will continue to
intensify this aftn. An upper low over western TX will drift
slowly eastward placing favorable downstream divergence into
eastern TX, while a 700-500mb trough axis pivots overhead.
Additionally, a shortwave noted in WV imagery will lift slowly
northward from the Upper TX Coast. These features together will
cause low/mid level flow to increase from the Gulf of Mexico,
converging into the mid-level trough to produce an extremely
favorable environment for heavy rainfall.

As these features interact across the area, thermodynamics being
drawn northward from the Gulf will cause PWs to approach 2.4" with
SBCAPE rising above 3000 J/kg. This will support rain rates which
the HREF suggests has a greater than 60% chance for reaching
2"/hr, and the HRRR sub-hourly fields indicate the potential for
4"/hr later today. Convection containing these rain rates will be
very slow moving noted by 0-6km mean winds of just 5-10 kts,
coincident with Corfidi vectors becoming increasingly aligned into
the inflow and opposed this mean wind. This indicates a high
likelihood for backbuilding and training, which with rain rates of
2-4"/hr, could result in 2-4" of rainfall with local amounts above
5" possible as reflected by the HREF neighborhood probabilities.

Much of TX has had a dry summer and 30-day rainfall across this
area is still generally just 25-50% of normal across this area.
However, recent rainfall in the past 14-day has helped saturate
the soils, and NASA SPoRT indicates pockets of 0-40cm soil
moisture that is now above the 90th percentile. This suggests the
soils can likely handle some rainfall. However, anywhere these
excessive rates train or backbuild, they will likely overwhelm the
soils to lead to runoff and flash flooding

Weiss

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...SHV...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
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Cromagnum
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Feast or famine. I really hope this weekend isn't ruined. I have two sets of tickets to two outdoor concerts and an AirBNB booked on Lake Conroe.
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jasons2k
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Man the satellite loop looks like a training setup is commencing, especially along the I-45 corridor - some spots will be slammed.

As for Labor Day weekend - blah - yeah I would like a break. Pool party was planned for the 5th with friends from Austin - I think I mentioned several days ago I was concerned it would be a washout.
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jasons2k
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snowman65 wrote: Tue Aug 30, 2022 9:51 am I gotta fly out of hobby saturday for Bham. Hope we dont have to go to Chicago to get around storms. I already see a nightmare at the airport.
My parents and grandparents are from Bham (and Cullman). Beautiful city. Love the botanical gardens - one of the best in the country.

I was in Bham for the superstorm of ‘93. That was a crazy experience with 16” of thundersnow followed by a week of no power.

Hope you have a nice trip!
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snowman65
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jasons2k wrote: Tue Aug 30, 2022 10:42 am
snowman65 wrote: Tue Aug 30, 2022 9:51 am I gotta fly out of hobby saturday for Bham. Hope we dont have to go to Chicago to get around storms. I already see a nightmare at the airport.
My parents and grandparents are from Bham (and Cullman). Beautiful city. Love the botanical gardens - one of the best in the country.

I was in Bham for the superstorm of ‘93. That was a crazy experience with 16” of thundersnow followed by a week of no power.

Hope you have a nice trip!
thanks. I'll be in Attala. Visiting an old Marine Corps buddy. We try to get together every 5 years or so. My turn to go to his place.
Stratton20
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CMC 12z has a bug bullseye over the next 5-6 days of 10-15 inches in far SE Texas, but that bullseye could be anywhere, something to watch closely
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DoctorMu
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Stratton20 wrote: Tue Aug 30, 2022 9:18 am Hard Pass on Saturday, hope its dry🤞
Saved by the early game. 8-)
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Tue Aug 30, 2022 10:40 am Man the satellite loop looks like a training setup is commencing, especially along the I-45 corridor - some spots will be slammed.

As for Labor Day weekend - blah - yeah I would like a break. Pool party was planned for the 5th with friends from Austin - I think I mentioned several days ago I was concerned it would be a washout.
We're in the split for now. Juicy, juicy air.
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