August 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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captainbarbossa19
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Stratton20 wrote: Tue Aug 02, 2022 12:20 am DoctorMu maybe top 3, but still behind A&M😏
All I can say is that there is no easy path to the top 3 in the SEC West.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 021120
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
620 AM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Spotty coastal showers and light south-southwesterly winds will
continue through the early half of the morning. Expect winds to
pick up out of the southwest to south-southwest till the afternoon
hours when the sea breeze transitions the wind direction over to
southeasterly. Additionally, wind speeds increase as well with
sustained winds at 10-15 knots. Isolated showers/storms will be
possible near and south of the I-10 corridor this afternoon mainly
between a window of 21Z-00Z. Following sunset, any lingering
convection will dissipate along with decreasing winds. There is
potential for MVFR ceilings on early Wednesday morning, especially
for CLL. Looking ahead to Wednesday afternoon, high-resolution
model guidance indicates another round of isolated to scattered
afternoon convection along the sea breeze with the greatest
probabilities near and south of the I-10 corridor.

Batiste

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 359 AM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022/...

.SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday Night]...

With a 592-594 dam high centered near the Four Corners gradually
expanding eastward over the next few days, we can expect
temperatures to continue their upward trend. It is August after
all...heat is our destiny. College Station is currently on a 16 day
streak of seeing temperatures at or above 102°F, and I don`t see any
reason why that streak won`t continue (stay cool up there, Ags).
850mb flow will vary between southwesterly and south-southwesterly
through Wednesday, which will bring elevated 850mb temperatures over
Southeast TX. NAEFS percentiles for 850mb temperatures rise into the
99.5 percentile by this afternoon and holds steady at or near that
percentile through Wednesday. Surface temperatures subsequently
increase as well with highs this afternoon ranging from the upper
90s to low 100s. Heat index values will range from 104°F-108°F, so
we`re not looking at a Heat Advisory at the moment. However, the
Brazos Valley will be borderline for air temperature criteria with
highs around 103°F. Regardless of if a Heat Advisory is issued or
not, you should still plan on practicing heat safety.

☈ain chances are slightly lower for today with increasing subsidence
as the upper level high continues to expand eastward. PW values
remain around 1.9"-2.1" though (75th percentile: 2.02"), so we`ll
have enough moisture in place for isolated to widely scattered
convection along the sea breeze as indicated by the latest CAMs. The
highest PoPs are near and south of I-10 as per usual. Wednesday will
be even hotter as the upper level high continues its eastward
expansion. High temperatures will top out in the upper 90s to low
100s once again, but the Brazos Valley will see temperatures around
102°F-104°F. Couple this with heat index values ranging from 106°F-
109°F across Southeast TX, and we`re looking at a better chance for
Heat Advisory issuance for Wednesday. PW values take a bit of a
nosedive as they drop into the 1.6"-1.8" range (25th percentile:
1.58"), so PoPs decrease as well. Went with 20%-25% PoPs with the
higher PoPs east of I-45 closer to the bulk of the moisture over LA.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday through Tuesday]...

Upper-level ridge centered over the Four Corners will expand
eastward into the Central Plains/MS Valley throughout the week. By
Thursday, the main weather story will be the heat. 850 mb
temperatures suggest values into the 22 to 23 degC range, suggesting
highs in the triple digits at some locations. Have continued with a
well-average temperature forecast. Highs will generally be from the
mid 90s to 104 degrees. Warmest readings along and north of I-10.
Southeast Texas will be positioned on the southeastern edge of the
ridge, resulting in some height weakness over the Gulf. This pattern
will allow for different mid-lvl shortwaves tracking westward into
the region. Latest GFS suggests an inverted upper-lvl trough
approaching the region by Thursday. However, the NAM, ECMWF and
Canadian show a slow development of this easterly wave and bring it
by Friday. Have leaned towards the latter model solutions and kept
slight precipitation chances for Thursday afternoon with the
seabreeze/daytime heating interaction. A deep influx of low level
moisture (PWs aoa 2 inches) arrive by the end of the week as the
aforementioned upper-level inverted trough tracks westward into
the Upper TX coast. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
move/develop over the coast, expanding inland during the day.
Additional round of showers and thunderstorms are again possible
by Saturday as more mid-upper level shortwaves embedded within the
ridge aloft move over the forecast area.

A typical summertime pattern is expected after Sunday with isolated
coastal showers in the morning and diurnally driven convection along
the seabreeze in the afternoon. Temperatures will range near to
slightly above average.

05

&&

.MARINE...

Light to moderate south to southeast winds and seas from 2 to 4 ft
are expected today and into the weekend. Winds will strengthen to 15-
20 knots in the evenings/night. Gusts up to 25 knots will be
possible at times. A few showers and thunderstorms can be expected
in the mornings. The best rain and storms chances arrive Friday into
the weekend as a disturbance develops over the northern Gulf and
tracks westward into the region. 05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Locations in the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods area will have
elevated fire danger with minimum RH values in the 25%-35% range,
southerly winds around 10-17 mph, dry to critically dry fuels along
with afternoon temperatures well into the 100s. Texas A&M Forest
Service has outlined these areas in a high to very high fire danger
rating for today and Wednesday. Please use extreme caution if
working with flammable material outdoors. Grasses and other fine
fuels can ignite and spread quickly in low humidity and windy
conditions.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 103 79 104 78 104 / 10 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 99 79 100 79 99 / 30 0 20 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 94 85 95 85 95 / 20 0 20 0 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 AM CDT this morning
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...05
FIRE WEATHER...Batiste
Cpv17
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Over on Storm2k 57 is saying there will be more of a threat to the NE Gulf this year and less of a threat to Texas. Don’t know how you could say that though but from what I know about 57 is that he’s usually not too high on Texas having much of anything.
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captainbarbossa19
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Cpv17 wrote: Tue Aug 02, 2022 12:14 pm Over on Storm2k 57 is saying there will be more of a threat to the NE Gulf this year and less of a threat to Texas. Don’t know how you could say that though but from what I know about 57 is that he’s usually not too high on Texas having much of anything.
Imo, it's way too early to say we have less of a threat than anyone else. Synoptic-scale features are going to be more important once something forms. For instance, the main impact for Texas in 2017 was Harvey, while Florida was hit by more than one TC. Technically, there was more of a threat for them overall, but that did not mean we were not impacted.
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jasons2k
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Cpv17 wrote: Tue Aug 02, 2022 12:14 pm Over on Storm2k 57 is saying there will be more of a threat to the NE Gulf this year and less of a threat to Texas. Don’t know how you could say that though but from what I know about 57 is that he’s usually not too high on Texas having much of anything.
This is based on some of the ensemble means for ridge placement looking forward into the peak of the season.

It’s something to note as a trend but it only takes one single trough or a break in the ridge at the right moment for something to head towards Texas. Keep your guard up folks…it is going to be a busy season soon enough.
Stratton20
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Jasons2k exactly, im seeing so many people on social media calling this season a bust, heck id say the real hurricane season hasnt even started yet,boy are those folks in for a surprise
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captainbarbossa19
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Stratton20 wrote: Tue Aug 02, 2022 2:02 pm Jasons2k exactly, im seeing so many people on social media calling this season a bust, heck id say the real hurricane season hasnt even started yet,boy are those folks in for a surprise
The average first hurricane doesn't even form until August 11. I think that calls should not be made about seasons until at least September 10. Sometimes the season doesn't really start until early September.
Stratton20
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A bit off topic but l just learned that I lost a close friend to stage 4 brain cancer today, it just goes to show that we may complain about how miserable the weather here is right now, you cant a day for granted, weather for me at least provides a distraction from grief, and thats why i enjoy being in this group, its entertaining, its informative and heck getting to talk about some of those most bizarre weather events we have faced over the last few years is awesome too!
Cpv17
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Supposedly there’s been a constant weakness over the SE all summer so that’s a big reason why they think it’ll be more active over there.
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jasons2k
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Cpv17 wrote: Tue Aug 02, 2022 2:40 pm Supposedly there’s been a constant weakness over the SE all summer so that’s a big reason why they think it’ll be more active over there.
The plains ridge won’t hold through the whole month of September.
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