I agree! I went out to my farm today and discovered I have two trees dying now from the drought. One was about 15 feet tall too. It's starting to get really rough.
August 2022
-
captainbarbossa19
- Posts: 401
- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2021 2:50 pm
- Location: Starkville, MS
- Contact:
It's midnight and still 90°F. I can confirm there is no moisture left in our soil.
50%~70% chance of showers and thunderstorms for SETX. Prayers we all see some beneficial showers today.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Today’s supposed to be the day!!
- Attachments
-
- F189CFB2-5B3D-4578-8D87-7DDB9C29AF88.jpeg (19.53 KiB) Viewed 1221 times
There have been way too many Lucy's this year for me to get much hopes up yet, but it's at least nice to look at the radar and see something in our general vicinity instead of another day of watching showers stream up from the Gulf to Baton Rouge/Lafayette.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Im expecting another disappoinment today, going to get shafted for the 1,000,000th time this summer 
I’m now in D3. The tree die-off is in full force up here. Lots of dead, young trees all along the easement of I-45….aka lots of our tax dollars just got wasted.
Maybe next week this will look better.
Maybe next week this will look better.
- Attachments
-
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4482
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
00
FXUS64 KHGX 050849
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
349 AM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022
.SHORT TERM [Through Saturday Night]...
At the time of writing (3 AM CDT), our latest radar imagery shows
initial development of scattered showers and storms approximately
40mi southeast of Galveston Island. Rainfall will be the main story
across the area today, largely in part to the approach of a midlevel
inverted trough which continues to advance towards the Western Gulf.
With total PWs rising to the vicinity of 2.0 in area-wide today and
the aforementioned trough providing ample PVA, we should see fairly
widespread coverage of showers and storms as the day goes on.
Initial development is expected to occur along the coast over the
next few hours, expanding gradually further inland over the course
of the morning and afternoon. Further adding to the rainfall chances
(particularly for areas north of the Houston metro) will be the
approach of a weak shortwave from the northeast, advancing
southwestward around the base of the prevailing midlevel ridge over
the Central Plains. In terms of rainfall amounts, widespread totals
of around 0.5-1" are expected along the coast with values tapering
off further northward. While a widespread flooding concern is not
anticipated, some locally heavy downpours associated with any strong
storms that develop may produce isolated higher rainfall amounts,
particularly close to the coast. As such, locations roughly along
and south of the I-10 corridor remain within a Marginal Risk for
excessive rainfall in WPC`s latest analysis.
Increased cloud cover and precipitation will work to mitigate the
excessively warm temperatures of late, with highs this afternoon
reaching only the upper 80s to low 90s along and south of I-10. The
northern/northwestern zones may still see a few locations above 100
given expected less precipitation and cloud coverage, but highs a
few degrees lower than recent days are still anticipated. Overnight
lows remain in the upper 70s to low 80s area wide.
With ample moisture remaining in place on Saturday and midlevel
PVA associated with the departing midlevel trough still a factor,
another round of showers and storms is expected on Saturday with
initial development occuring along the coast and coverage
expanding inland during the afternoon with the developing sea/bay
breezes. Have maintained PoP forecast of 40-60 percent given the
favorable environment remaining in place and fairly widespread
coverage across 00Z HREF members. Similar high/low temperatures to
Friday are expected given continued cloud cover and rainfall.
Cady
.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...
Hot and humid weather continues through the long term with
daytime highs in the mid to upper 90s for most of the region
(College Station area will be flirting with the 100-103 range
Sunday through Tuesday) with overnight lows in mid to upper 70s.
Daytime heat indices will be in the 103 to 106 degree range each
day.
On Sunday, an upper level ridge will be centered over the Central
Plains with a very weak shortwave rounding the bottom of the
ridge into SE Texas. This shortwave combined with daytime heating
and PWATs near 2" will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Monday and Tuesday look to have the most limited shower activity
of the long term, but high PWATs and daytime heating will still
bring the possibility of isolated showers and thunderstorms during
the afternoon hours. Rain totals through the next few days will
be highly variable (like most of this summer) where a quick 0.5"
of rain will fall for one neighborhood, meanwhile the next
neighborhood over may get nothing. Trying to narrow down exactly
which neighborhood gets the rain is not really possible - just the
way summertime convection is in this pattern.
Guidance remains in pretty good agreement in the midlevels for
Wednesday and beyond with high pressure building over the
Southern/Central Plains, however surface features are a bit of a
different story. A front over the Midwest on Wednesday will either
remain stationary over that region through the rest of the week
(GFS) or slide southwards potentially into our region (ECMWF). The
further south solution is dependent on the strength/location of a
trough over the East Coast Thursday into Friday - the GFS keeps
it further north thus keeping the front further north, while the
EC has the trough digging all the way down into the northern Gulf
bringing the associated precipitation with it. While the GFS
doesn`t bring it as far south, it does have a shortwave moving
onshore into SE Texas Friday bringing increased showers and
thunderstorms coverage. So, either way we can possibly expect an
uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity by Friday.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will persist through
the upcoming week. Small craft may need to exercise caution at
times during the overnight hours when that onshore flow becomes
more moderate. Wave heights of 2 to 4 feet will also persist
through the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible each day through the week producing locally gusty winds.
The persistent onshore flow will bring at least a moderate chance
for strong rip currents along Gulf facing beaches this week.
Fowler
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 1206 AM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022/...
.AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...
Forecast remains on track. VFR conditions are expected to prevail
this morning. Areas of MVFR ceilings will be possible in the
Brazos Valley and near the coast. Widely scattered SH activity
expected to develop near the coast this morning. As the morning
progresses into the afternoon, TS/SH activity will push inland.
Still going with VCSH for CLL and UTS due to uncertainty. VCTS is
indicated for all terminals today from CXO points south. TS
coverage is likely to decrease after 0z due to loss of daytime
heating. Lingering SH and possibly an iso TS are expected near the
coast after 0z, hence the VCSH towards the end of the TAF period
for LBX and GLS.
Self
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 101 76 97 77 100 / 30 20 40 0 20
Houston (IAH) 92 78 94 77 96 / 50 40 60 10 40
Galveston (GLS) 89 84 90 84 92 / 70 60 60 30 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM...Fowler
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Fowler
FXUS64 KHGX 050849
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
349 AM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022
.SHORT TERM [Through Saturday Night]...
At the time of writing (3 AM CDT), our latest radar imagery shows
initial development of scattered showers and storms approximately
40mi southeast of Galveston Island. Rainfall will be the main story
across the area today, largely in part to the approach of a midlevel
inverted trough which continues to advance towards the Western Gulf.
With total PWs rising to the vicinity of 2.0 in area-wide today and
the aforementioned trough providing ample PVA, we should see fairly
widespread coverage of showers and storms as the day goes on.
Initial development is expected to occur along the coast over the
next few hours, expanding gradually further inland over the course
of the morning and afternoon. Further adding to the rainfall chances
(particularly for areas north of the Houston metro) will be the
approach of a weak shortwave from the northeast, advancing
southwestward around the base of the prevailing midlevel ridge over
the Central Plains. In terms of rainfall amounts, widespread totals
of around 0.5-1" are expected along the coast with values tapering
off further northward. While a widespread flooding concern is not
anticipated, some locally heavy downpours associated with any strong
storms that develop may produce isolated higher rainfall amounts,
particularly close to the coast. As such, locations roughly along
and south of the I-10 corridor remain within a Marginal Risk for
excessive rainfall in WPC`s latest analysis.
Increased cloud cover and precipitation will work to mitigate the
excessively warm temperatures of late, with highs this afternoon
reaching only the upper 80s to low 90s along and south of I-10. The
northern/northwestern zones may still see a few locations above 100
given expected less precipitation and cloud coverage, but highs a
few degrees lower than recent days are still anticipated. Overnight
lows remain in the upper 70s to low 80s area wide.
With ample moisture remaining in place on Saturday and midlevel
PVA associated with the departing midlevel trough still a factor,
another round of showers and storms is expected on Saturday with
initial development occuring along the coast and coverage
expanding inland during the afternoon with the developing sea/bay
breezes. Have maintained PoP forecast of 40-60 percent given the
favorable environment remaining in place and fairly widespread
coverage across 00Z HREF members. Similar high/low temperatures to
Friday are expected given continued cloud cover and rainfall.
Cady
.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...
Hot and humid weather continues through the long term with
daytime highs in the mid to upper 90s for most of the region
(College Station area will be flirting with the 100-103 range
Sunday through Tuesday) with overnight lows in mid to upper 70s.
Daytime heat indices will be in the 103 to 106 degree range each
day.
On Sunday, an upper level ridge will be centered over the Central
Plains with a very weak shortwave rounding the bottom of the
ridge into SE Texas. This shortwave combined with daytime heating
and PWATs near 2" will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Monday and Tuesday look to have the most limited shower activity
of the long term, but high PWATs and daytime heating will still
bring the possibility of isolated showers and thunderstorms during
the afternoon hours. Rain totals through the next few days will
be highly variable (like most of this summer) where a quick 0.5"
of rain will fall for one neighborhood, meanwhile the next
neighborhood over may get nothing. Trying to narrow down exactly
which neighborhood gets the rain is not really possible - just the
way summertime convection is in this pattern.
Guidance remains in pretty good agreement in the midlevels for
Wednesday and beyond with high pressure building over the
Southern/Central Plains, however surface features are a bit of a
different story. A front over the Midwest on Wednesday will either
remain stationary over that region through the rest of the week
(GFS) or slide southwards potentially into our region (ECMWF). The
further south solution is dependent on the strength/location of a
trough over the East Coast Thursday into Friday - the GFS keeps
it further north thus keeping the front further north, while the
EC has the trough digging all the way down into the northern Gulf
bringing the associated precipitation with it. While the GFS
doesn`t bring it as far south, it does have a shortwave moving
onshore into SE Texas Friday bringing increased showers and
thunderstorms coverage. So, either way we can possibly expect an
uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity by Friday.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will persist through
the upcoming week. Small craft may need to exercise caution at
times during the overnight hours when that onshore flow becomes
more moderate. Wave heights of 2 to 4 feet will also persist
through the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible each day through the week producing locally gusty winds.
The persistent onshore flow will bring at least a moderate chance
for strong rip currents along Gulf facing beaches this week.
Fowler
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 1206 AM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022/...
.AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...
Forecast remains on track. VFR conditions are expected to prevail
this morning. Areas of MVFR ceilings will be possible in the
Brazos Valley and near the coast. Widely scattered SH activity
expected to develop near the coast this morning. As the morning
progresses into the afternoon, TS/SH activity will push inland.
Still going with VCSH for CLL and UTS due to uncertainty. VCTS is
indicated for all terminals today from CXO points south. TS
coverage is likely to decrease after 0z due to loss of daytime
heating. Lingering SH and possibly an iso TS are expected near the
coast after 0z, hence the VCSH towards the end of the TAF period
for LBX and GLS.
Self
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 101 76 97 77 100 / 30 20 40 0 20
Houston (IAH) 92 78 94 77 96 / 50 40 60 10 40
Galveston (GLS) 89 84 90 84 92 / 70 60 60 30 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM...Fowler
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Fowler
I really don’t have much hope for today. The mesoscale models for the most part aren’t showing much.
It's early and I'll be extremely glad to be wrong...but I'm also on the "no hope for today" bandwagon.
That blob is staying decently far off the coast (drifting ever slowly slightly southwest??). Anything that nears the coast goes poof.
NWS has me at 40% today and 60% tomorrow....color me doubtful. Not sure I'm following the optimism from the folks at HGX (that's not a knock against them!).
That blob is staying decently far off the coast (drifting ever slowly slightly southwest??). Anything that nears the coast goes poof.
NWS has me at 40% today and 60% tomorrow....color me doubtful. Not sure I'm following the optimism from the folks at HGX (that's not a knock against them!).
I had a sinking feeling yesterday that the Gulf convection was going to rob us. With all the hype all week for Friday to finally get here watch it bust. Again.
What do you know? All offshore.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
yep, not even surprising, another bust for many folks, granted NWS only has a 30% chance for my area, but thats not even going to verify, yawn next!
In all seriousness we should see convection pop inland soon too. This shortwave coming in should finally break the lid.
Oh nice. Everything in my area vanished and its all way north now. Off to Home Depot to continue the improvement project of my lawn irrigation system...
Here comes the outflow again.
It’s 96 degrees here and I can’t get convection to just pop for once, at least not yet.
It’s 96 degrees here and I can’t get convection to just pop for once, at least not yet.