August 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
Posts: 3603
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 12:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Re: August 2022

Post by Cpv17 » Tue Aug 30, 2022 2:33 pm

Stratton20 wrote:
Tue Aug 30, 2022 2:18 pm
Cpv17 why can those be dangerous?

Edit: I see what you mean, Euro brings in a WPAC system at the ends of its run into the state and has some pretty big totals
They have a lot of history of bringing flooding rains to the state.

The CPC seems to think we’ll stay wet into the second week of September.

User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 4191
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 10:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Re: August 2022

Post by DoctorMu » Tue Aug 30, 2022 2:38 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Tue Aug 30, 2022 2:33 pm
Stratton20 wrote:
Tue Aug 30, 2022 2:18 pm
Cpv17 why can those be dangerous?

Edit: I see what you mean, Euro brings in a WPAC system at the ends of its run into the state and has some pretty big totals
They have a lot of history of bringing flooding rains to the state.

The CPC seems to think we’ll stay wet into the second week of September.
October 1994. We had 18 inches of rain in 18 hours in CLL.

I kick down part of a fence to let water out of the backyard.

User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19548
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Contact:

Re: August 2022

Post by srainhoutx » Tue Aug 30, 2022 2:38 pm

mcd0909.gif
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0909
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
401 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022

Areas affected...Southeast TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 302000Z - 310000Z

SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorm activity across southeast Texas may
result in additional flash flooding through late afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A 500mb low over West Texas is providing some
diffluent flow aloft while 850mb winds continue to funnel rich
Gulf of Mexico moisture into southeast Texas. This is in part due
to a 500mb ridge along the central Louisiana coast, that in tandem
with the upper low in West Texas, is resulting in a convergence
zone over southeast Texas. 19Z surface analysis showed a surface
low in central Texas with a pair of surface troughs acting as
triggers for ongoing areas of convection. SPC RAP mesoanalysis
showed a reservoir of 2.2-2.3" PWs throughout the highlighted
region, as well as MLCAPE between 1,000-2,000 J/kg. 850-300mb mean
wind speeds are ~5 knots and mean cloud layer RH values are
averaging close to 90%.

Ongoing storms have begun to propagate west towards central Texas
where one surface trough is located while storms continue to form
along another surface trough west of Houston. 17Z HRRR showed
storms gradually dissipating around 00Z with the atmosphere being
overworked and due to the loss of daytime heating. However, storms
associated outflow boundaries may help to produce additional
storms not long after sunset. The 12Z HREF displayed probabilities
of 3-hr QPF > 3-hr FFGs as high as 45-50% west of Kileen. FLASH
CREST max unit stream flow highlighted Kileen as seeing 300-700
cfs/smi due to storms recently passing through the area. MRMS
instantaneous precip rates were as high as 4-5"/hr in some cases,
but most areas can expect hourly rainfall totals in the 2-3"/hr
range. This shows the type of rapid onset flooding that can occur,
especially in urbanized communities that contain a greater
concentration of hydrophobic surfaces. Low lying, poor drainage
areas are also susceptible to flash flooding the remainder of the
afternoon.

Mullinax

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity

User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 4191
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 10:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Re: August 2022

Post by DoctorMu » Tue Aug 30, 2022 2:40 pm

Yep. Feast or Famine.

Image

User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 4591
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

Re: August 2022

Post by jasons2k » Tue Aug 30, 2022 3:12 pm

The line to the west is starting to advance, with an outflow of course, but should get some more juice out of it.

Edit 3:58. Outflow blew by. The stuff west of here may start dying.

And look to my northeast already. This has the looks of another ‘skip’ look to it. Maybe a few frames later it can blossom here too…

Edit 4:03 the skies to my NE are super dark blue with a blue-turquoise rain shaft. Beauty from afar…

Radar is lighting up around me though.
Attachments
062C12C9-68CB-46E2-9CB9-9774C94AD320.png

User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 4591
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

Re: August 2022

Post by jasons2k » Tue Aug 30, 2022 3:36 pm

4:12 sure hope this donut fills-in before everything falls apart. Lots of thunder to my NE. Wrong effing direction, again.
Attachments
9D1AE396-1476-4318-9268-F4480F4946FA.png

User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 4591
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

Re: August 2022

Post by jasons2k » Tue Aug 30, 2022 3:59 pm

Yep, once again….
Attachments
A634B276-9EB3-465F-94FA-62A19BBA137F.jpeg
A634B276-9EB3-465F-94FA-62A19BBA137F.jpeg (30.5 KiB) Viewed 511 times
C42F07A5-3CB2-420C-BF3E-99FC4550843C.png

User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 4191
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 10:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Re: August 2022

Post by DoctorMu » Tue Aug 30, 2022 5:19 pm

jasons2k wrote:
Tue Aug 30, 2022 3:59 pm
Yep, once again….
Any Aggies recently settle into the area, recently? Because that is one helluva AggieDome. I can't believe those cells moving just west of I-45 missed you.

1.72 in of rain today in CLL. Salvation at last. Now I can begin preparations for brown patch season. ;)

User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 4191
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 10:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Re: August 2022

Post by DoctorMu » Tue Aug 30, 2022 5:21 pm

jasons2k wrote:
Tue Aug 30, 2022 3:59 pm
Yep, once again….
https://youtu.be/eV67FuREdSc

User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 4591
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

Re: August 2022

Post by jasons2k » Tue Aug 30, 2022 5:27 pm

DoctorMu wrote:
Tue Aug 30, 2022 5:19 pm
jasons2k wrote:
Tue Aug 30, 2022 3:59 pm
Yep, once again….
Any Aggies recently settle into the area, recently? Because that is one helluva AggieDome. I can't believe those cells moving just west of I-45 missed you.

1.72 in of rain today in CLL. Salvation at last. Now I can begin preparations for brown patch season. ;)
I’m glad you finally hit the jackpot!

Yeah, every cell that approached me today fell apart, no matter which direction. And then another would reform on the other side of me.

My step-mother and sister moved here back in May. They asked me last week "What is up with the rain in this area? It's like this one neighborhood has a forcefield over it that just zaps anything headed this way"

I said "Basically, yep - welcome to the neighborhood!"

Post Reply