August 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
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Re: August 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Wed Aug 31, 2022 11:29 am

It might just be me but I feel like the GFS has not been very reliable this year, it has done an absolutely horrific job with the tropics this season, i am skeptical of any thing that the GFS shows lol

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jasons2k
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Re: August 2022

Post by jasons2k » Wed Aug 31, 2022 12:12 pm

Agreed on the GFS. What a disaster in the tropics so far.

mcheer23
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Re: August 2022

Post by mcheer23 » Wed Aug 31, 2022 12:14 pm

New total precip amounts from the WPC

5-7+ inches
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57.png

Stratton20
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Re: August 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Wed Aug 31, 2022 12:15 pm

mcheer23 they must be buying into the euro and cmc solutions

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tireman4
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Re: August 2022

Post by tireman4 » Wed Aug 31, 2022 12:21 pm

If this is spread over a couple of days, we "should" be ok. We are nearing saturation points, so we must be mindful of that going into the weekend.

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Re: August 2022

Post by Cpv17 » Wed Aug 31, 2022 12:23 pm

tireman4 wrote:
Wed Aug 31, 2022 12:21 pm
If this is spread over a couple of days, we "should" be ok. We are nearing saturation points, so we must be mindful of that going into the weekend.
With the WPC I’ve noticed that they tend to start out on the conservative side and tend to bump up the totals as the event draws closer as long as there’s good confidence in the forecast.

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don
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Re: August 2022

Post by don » Wed Aug 31, 2022 12:39 pm

A micro cell just dumped a quick .60 of rain on me in just 10 minutes :D LOL

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tireman4
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Re: August 2022

Post by tireman4 » Wed Aug 31, 2022 12:41 pm

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022

Even with the storms developing along the sea and bay breezes at
this time, coverage so far today has been limited. Subsidence at
the mid/upper levels appear to be winning out, but not confident
enough to completely drop the mention of VCTS for inland termin-
als for the rest of this afternoon. Activity should decrease by/
near sunset once again with the loss of daytime heating. However
there are some concerns regarding rain chances for our northern-
most sites as overnight convection across North/Central TX could
push a few outflows our way. Winds should remain light (5-10 kts)
from the E/SE during the day and variable at night. 41

Stratton20
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Re: August 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Wed Aug 31, 2022 1:14 pm

Well the 12z Euro hust pulled an Uno reverse card on the EPAC moisture lol

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Re: August 2022

Post by Cpv17 » Wed Aug 31, 2022 1:41 pm

Stratton20 wrote:
Wed Aug 31, 2022 1:14 pm
Well the 12z Euro hust pulled an Uno reverse card on the EPAC moisture lol
Yeah lol lots of time for that to play out though.

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