August 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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jasons2k
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TWC totally dropped my rain chances to 50/50 tomorrow and nada for Saturday...

I ended-up with .70" yesterday. Great for a one-day total but I need multiple days of rain.
Stratton20
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The CMC has a BOC system at hour 192, but gets buried into mexico, we will “sea”
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DoctorMu
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Spotty showers forming and moving south. 40% chance of rain this afternoon per NWS seems optimistic. Hoping for the 50/50 ball tomorrow.

Even 0.5-1 inch IMBY would really help!
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DoctorMu
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Our donut hole makes the NWS discussion.

There's a chance tomorrow!


FXUS64 KHGX 111746
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1246 PM CDT Thu Aug 11 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Other than some spotty MVFR/LIFR ceilings, the early part of the
day has been fairly quiet. But as the daytime heating continues,
we are starting to see showers develop along the weak/stationary
front (just north of the CWA) over the northern CWA...as well as
slightly stronger activity along/near the coast (where that line
from helped produce yesterday`s activity). Have sped up the tim-
ing of VCSH for today but will keep VCTS as is. Activity will be
expected to dissipate by early this evening or so (with the loss
of heating). Patchy fog/lower ceilings possible once again going
into the overnight/early morning hours given the wet grounds and
light to calm winds. With the easterly wave progged to reach the
Upper TX coast/SE TX early tomorrow
, not going to argue too much
with the earlier timing of the mention of VCSH/VCTS. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 641 AM CDT Thu Aug 11 2022/...

.DISCUSSION...

A more unsettled weather pattern roared in yesterday afternoon and
evening, bringing rain and thunderstorms to nearly every corner of
our forecast area (sorry, Easterwood Field!
At least other parts
of the B/CS metro saw more actual rain!). Unfortunately, some of
the storms also became rather strong and produced some damage in
the area as well.

The intensity of yesterday`s activity will probably take some of
the edge off of potential for today,
but the broader pattern of
more storminess will continue. Today, we`ll be focusing our
attention closer to the coast, and the seabreeze as the focus for
the strongest rain and storms.

Continued days with rounds of showers and storms will carry us
into the weekend, where we`ll start to get a transition back to
more isolated afternoon storms, with most seeing more sun and
higher temperatures return.


.SHORT TERM [Through Friday Night]...

Most hi-res models show a slight decrease in rain chances today as
the remnant boundary that pushed through yesterday evening stays
offshore. However, with a stationary front stalled north of our CWA
today, a few showers and storms from that front could drift south
and into Southeast Texas,
where our environment remains moist and
unstable enough to propagate more showers and storms along any
residual cold pools. DCAPE values still range from 700-900 J/kg, so
cold pool propagation remains highly likely this afternoon along
with strong gusty winds. At the same time, we can expect the sea/bay
breeze to initiate near the coast early in the afternoon and push
further inland throughout the day. Even further, with light
northerly flow across our inland locations from the wake of
yesterday`s line of storms, this could act as a convergent zone for
the sea/bay breeze this afternoon and pinning it closer to the
coast. Some hi-res models are hinting at this occurring today and
having the sea/bay breeze stall further south than we`ve typically
seen this summer and remain almost stationary. In addition, the
overall environment across Southeast remains favorable for heavy
rainfall with PWs near 2.0-2.3", deep warm cloud layers, and weak
shear. Therefore, WPC has placed our Southeastern counties in a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall.

Tomorrow, an approaching mid level shortwave from the Gulf and its
associated inverted surface trough will increase rain chances once
again with convective activity starting near the coast during the
early morning hours and pushing further inland throughout the day.

With deep moisture and plenty of instability, heavy rainfall amounts
are possible again.

Regarding temperatures, daytime highs today will reach the low to
mid 90s across most areas except the Brazos Valley which will reach
the upper 90s. Friday should be a few degrees cooler due to higher
rain chances and more cloud cover. Areas south of I-10 could
struggle to reach 90 on Friday afternoon. Overnight lows, will reach
the mid to upper 70s.


.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...

Saturday still looks like a decently active day, at least closer
to the coast. It is probably a little dangerous as the relatively
weak wind field is going to be susceptible to big modification by
the prior day`s convection, which could then have important
impacts on where the best convergence zones and potential
convective triggers will be for the day to come. That said,
betting on the seabreeze, the one consistent boundary we`ve got to
work with
, seems like the way to go even as near as Day 3 in the
forecast.

So, long story short, I`ve got a pretty wide swath of chance PoPs,
with likelies emerging on the coastal plain thanks to the
seabreeze. This will almost certainly need to be refined as we get
closer to the weekend. Another thing to consider will be the
interplay between an exiting shortwave trough at the midlevels,
and though a weak coastal trough looks like it tries to set up,
we`ve got both the subtropical ridge aloft trying to build back in
and surface high pressure over the northern Gulf also trying to
shove in from our east.

Eventually, these highs are going to win, but there`s some
question about just which will more influential this weekend. In
general, I`m shading a little more towards the troughing on
Saturday (especially on the coast, and towards the southwest), and
more towards high pressure on Sunday. There should be a clear
beginning of a transition from this late week rainier pattern back
to the more typical heat we`ve seen this summer. Expect 100 degree
temps to be back well inland, especially by Monday afternoon.

As we go deeper into the middle of the week, we can still expect
some isolated to widely scattered convection, mainly near the
seabreeze boundary, but there will be a decided shift back to a
weather regime that is mainly mostly sunny/partly cloudy and hot
across Southeast Texas.
By Thursday, though, we may start to see
some hints of change again. A front again looks to make its way
across the Red River. And while an actual appearance in Southeast
Texas seems unlikely (but not impossible!), it should at least
draw near enough, supported by a digging longwave trough over the
Northeast US, that we may be looking for a more unsettled
stretch beyond the far end of the current forecast period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 77 95 77 98 77 / 30 50 30 30 0
Houston (IAH) 77 91 75 94 76 / 40 80 40 60 10
Galveston (GLS) 83 92 82 91 82 / 70 80 60 60 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
SHORT TERM...Walts
LONG TERM...Luchs
AVIATION...41
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jasons2k
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The sea breeze is starting to form-up now. Reaching convective temps. The next 4 hours will be interesting to watch. Good luck to everyone!
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jasons2k
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I did not expect these storms moving into Montgomery County to struggle so much. I expected it to go boom!

And the storm that formed near Aldine and died before getting downtown, again, no reason for that to die either…

I see it didn’t take long for Lucy to be back to her old tricks. TWC app down to 40% tomorrow.

NWS better not take that 80% away. Almost time for the new package.
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jasons2k
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Well storms near Cleveland are now building back up. It’s only 4pm - I shouldn’t give up so easily. That’s what getting burned over and over again does though - haha!

Edit 4:00 - just looked outside. Big thunderhead blowing-up to the NE! Come on baby, come to papa!!
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jasons2k
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Par for the course…
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2C9B4B8E-4045-402A-839A-76DEA1B99BE0.png
Scott747
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It's extremely tepid but there's now enough 'model support' to cast an eye off the mid texas coast in the next 48+ hours. At best there might be enough of a weak circulation (not a TD) that tries to form before going inland from Matagorda and s.

Could be enough to sling some moisture up our way but seems for now to be confined to the mid and lower texas coast.
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DoctorMu
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These are all southward moving showers below Highway 1*5. We have a northerly breeze here

Widely scattered, but may ramp up before sunset.

Nada here. Our best chance is tomorrow.
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