August 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
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Cpv17 those are some pretty big totals
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Wed Aug 31, 2022 9:21 am Cpv17 those are some pretty big totals
Probably will have to start watching the creeks and bayous if that verifies.
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snowman65
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what in the harvey hell is going on here???
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Cromagnum
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Great weather this morning to get eyes on the old Battleship making its way to Galveston. Saw these pics elsewhere.

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mcheer23
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Cpv17 wrote: Wed Aug 31, 2022 9:27 am
Stratton20 wrote: Wed Aug 31, 2022 9:21 am Cpv17 those are some pretty big totals
Probably will have to start watching the creeks and bayous if that verifies.
I believe CMC and EURO are bringing moisture in from what is likely to be Hurricane Kay over the eastern pacific.
Cpv17
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mcheer23 wrote: Wed Aug 31, 2022 11:48 am
Cpv17 wrote: Wed Aug 31, 2022 9:27 am
Stratton20 wrote: Wed Aug 31, 2022 9:21 am Cpv17 those are some pretty big totals
Probably will have to start watching the creeks and bayous if that verifies.
I believe CMC and EURO are bringing moisture in from what is likely to be Hurricane Kay over the eastern pacific.
Yep! Mid to late next week it looks like. Plus another dose of Gulf moisture coming in on Friday and increasing through the weekend.
Stratton20
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12z CMC, definitely a little concerned about the flooding potential next week
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Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Wed Aug 31, 2022 11:59 am 12z CMC, definitely a little concerned about the flooding potential next week
And these are the global models showing that much. Imagine what the mesoscale models will show when we get closer.
mcheer23
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GFS doesn't show much because it has future Hurricane Kay hitting to the left of Baja California.
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don
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From HGX discussion this morning those precipitable waters this weekend are TC territory PWATS...


The probability of precipitation progressively increases Friday night
into early next week as a backdoor frontal boundary moves through
and becomes quasi-stationary along the coast. Global models still
differ on the evolution and strength of some mesoscale features;
however, models keep suggesting an increase in moisture with PWATS
around 2.3-2.5 inches through early next week. These values are
well above normal (above the median moving average) for late
August standards; suggesting locally moderate to heavy rain,
particularly along the boundary. Have increased PoPs to 50-70
percent mainly for Saturday and Sunday with the best chances south
of I-10.


Rain and storm chances Monday through Wednesday will generally
revolve around the the quasi-stationary boundary meandering along
the coast and slowly moving inland/northward.
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Last edited by don on Wed Aug 31, 2022 12:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Stratton20
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It might just be me but I feel like the GFS has not been very reliable this year, it has done an absolutely horrific job with the tropics this season, i am skeptical of any thing that the GFS shows lol
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jasons2k
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Agreed on the GFS. What a disaster in the tropics so far.
mcheer23
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New total precip amounts from the WPC

5-7+ inches
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Stratton20
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mcheer23 they must be buying into the euro and cmc solutions
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tireman4
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If this is spread over a couple of days, we "should" be ok. We are nearing saturation points, so we must be mindful of that going into the weekend.
Cpv17
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tireman4 wrote: Wed Aug 31, 2022 1:21 pm If this is spread over a couple of days, we "should" be ok. We are nearing saturation points, so we must be mindful of that going into the weekend.
With the WPC I’ve noticed that they tend to start out on the conservative side and tend to bump up the totals as the event draws closer as long as there’s good confidence in the forecast.
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don
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A micro cell just dumped a quick .60 of rain on me in just 10 minutes :D LOL
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tireman4
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&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022

Even with the storms developing along the sea and bay breezes at
this time, coverage so far today has been limited. Subsidence at
the mid/upper levels appear to be winning out, but not confident
enough to completely drop the mention of VCTS for inland termin-
als for the rest of this afternoon. Activity should decrease by/
near sunset once again with the loss of daytime heating. However
there are some concerns regarding rain chances for our northern-
most sites as overnight convection across North/Central TX could
push a few outflows our way. Winds should remain light (5-10 kts)
from the E/SE during the day and variable at night. 41
Stratton20
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Well the 12z Euro hust pulled an Uno reverse card on the EPAC moisture lol
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Wed Aug 31, 2022 2:14 pm Well the 12z Euro hust pulled an Uno reverse card on the EPAC moisture lol
Yeah lol lots of time for that to play out though.
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