August 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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don
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Stratton20 wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 11:24 am jasons2k im not either haha, just figured it was worth mentioning aince it is August after all
FWIW the 12z GFS also shows the same system as the ICON. The GFS breifly develops it into a depression off of the Louisiana coast before shearing out.
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Cpv17
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I’m not sure what the CPC is seeing to show a chance for above normal rainfall for southern/southeastern TX over the next few weeks but I’ll take it. I don’t really see anything on the models that would lead me to believe that but they obviously see something. Although the latest 12z Euro did look halfway decent for us.
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captainbarbossa19
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Cpv17 wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 3:54 pm I’m not sure what the CPC is seeing to show a chance for above normal rainfall for southern/southeastern TX over the next few weeks but I’ll take it. I don’t really see anything on the models that would lead me to believe that but they obviously see something. Although the latest 12z Euro did look halfway decent for us.
Continued easterly flow for us. This time of year, that is what you want to see when you need rain. That pattern can be dangerous though heading towards peak season.
Cpv17
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captainbarbossa19 wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 4:21 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 3:54 pm I’m not sure what the CPC is seeing to show a chance for above normal rainfall for southern/southeastern TX over the next few weeks but I’ll take it. I don’t really see anything on the models that would lead me to believe that but they obviously see something. Although the latest 12z Euro did look halfway decent for us.
Continued easterly flow for us. This time of year, that is what you want to see when you need rain. That pattern can be dangerous though heading towards peak season.
I sure hope so. We need rain here desperately. This is the driest it’s been here since 2011. Starting to see some pretty big cracks in the ground. Pastures are completely fried. Nothing for livestock to eat. Only bad thing is if it starts raining here now, the cotton farmers are going to have a hard time getting in the fields for harvest.
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DoctorMu
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captainbarbossa19 wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 4:21 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 3:54 pm I’m not sure what the CPC is seeing to show a chance for above normal rainfall for southern/southeastern TX over the next few weeks but I’ll take it. I don’t really see anything on the models that would lead me to believe that but they obviously see something. Although the latest 12z Euro did look halfway decent for us.
Continued easterly flow for us. This time of year, that is what you want to see when you need rain. That pattern can be dangerous though heading towards peak season.
Yes, indeed. More easterly flow just under the ridge.

A few showers just literally jumped our yard.

The trees are doing better than 2011, but not the grass. Large patches are tanking. Going to try more high nitrogen fertilizer with iron.
Stratton20
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Don 18z ICON at day 5 OR HOUR 120 ,still trying ti close off a low in the NW GOM fwiw
Last edited by Stratton20 on Sat Aug 06, 2022 4:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Cromagnum
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I sweat on my lawn more than it rained on it yesterday or today. Bring on something tropical. I give up.
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Katdaddy
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Hmmmm....an easterly wave in the GOM next week......from this afternoons HOU-GAL AFD:

A significant pattern arrives for the latter half of the workweek
as deterministic models bring an easterly wave over the
northeastern Gulf. Models are not in good agreement in terms of
timing and evolution of this inverted trough. However, most of
them place this system over the Gulf waters Wed through Sat,
resulting in abundant moisture over the region thanks to
persistent onshore winds. There is high uncertainty regarding the
evolution of this wave as the 12Z GFS develops a sfc low over the
north-central Gulf by Thursday, slowly tracking westward into the
Upper TX coast by the weekend. The ECMWF, on the other hand,
suggests a faster and weaker solution with the inverted trough
arriving Thursday into Friday. Given the amount of uncertainty in
the forecast Wednesday and beyond, have kept PoPs as NBM guidance
suggests with increasing precipitation chances Thursday and
Friday. This will be another potential period to monitor for
increasing precipitation chances.
suprdav2
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0.00"
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DoctorMu
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Katdaddy wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 5:05 pm Hmmmm....an easterly wave in the GOM next week......from this afternoons HOU-GAL AFD:

A significant pattern arrives for the latter half of the workweek
as deterministic models bring an easterly wave over the
northeastern Gulf. Models are not in good agreement in terms of
timing and evolution of this inverted trough. However, most of
them place this system over the Gulf waters Wed through Sat,
resulting in abundant moisture over the region thanks to
persistent onshore winds. There is high uncertainty regarding the
evolution of this wave as the 12Z GFS develops a sfc low over the
north-central Gulf by Thursday, slowly tracking westward into the
Upper TX coast by the weekend. The ECMWF, on the other hand,
suggests a faster and weaker solution with the inverted trough
arriving Thursday into Friday. Given the amount of uncertainty in
the forecast Wednesday and beyond, have kept PoPs as NBM guidance
suggests with increasing precipitation chances Thursday and
Friday. This will be another potential period to monitor for
increasing precipitation chances.
Bring it. Keep those easterlies going.
davidiowx
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I got 0.07” in the last hour or so with the sun out lol. Just enough to make a humid evening with no wind. Bleh
869MB
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After yet another day with rain showers and thundershowers dissipating as they moved toward my neighborhood, I decided to do a little auditing and compare this year with 2011 with respect to rainfall totals. And as I expected, my general area is running ahead of 2011's totals, but disturbingly, not by much. For some reason, the closest site to my neighborhood reflected 0.00 in 2011 as annotated below. Still, the other sites close to me are representative of my neighborhood which was probably somewhere between 9.00 inches and 10.00 inches in 2011. So as far as my particular neighborhood is concerned, this year is very comparable to 2011 with respect to overall rainfall totals.

So in essence, this year appeared to have presented more opportunities for rainfall as compared to 2011, but many of those forecasted rainfall events either didn't provide me much relief or didn't materialize at all. The biggest difference between 2011 and now, is the weather pattern appears to be much more favorable for daily thundershowers for at least through the next 7 to 10 days. Whereas in 2011, this was the point of the summer where I got absolutely cooked and really got my "you know what" handed to me with back-to-back-to-back 100 Degree Days with rain chances just a mere mirage.


2011 Harris county rainfall totals from 12/31/2010 6PM to 8/06/2011 6PM:
2011 HARRIS COUNTY RAINFALL TOTALS - From 12.31.2010 1800 to 8.06.2011 1800.png
download (3).png

2022 Harris County Rainfall totals from 12/31/2021 6PM to 8/06/2022 6PM:
2022 HARRIS COUNTY RAINFALL TOTALS - From 12.31.2021 1800 to 8.06.2022 1800.png
download (4).png
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captainbarbossa19
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869MB wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 9:15 pm After yet another day with rain showers and thundershowers dissipating as they moved toward my neighborhood, I decided to do a little auditing and compare this year with 2011 with respect to rainfall totals. And as I expected, my general area is running ahead of 2011's totals, but disturbingly, not by much. For some reason, the closest site to my neighborhood reflected 0.00 in 2011 as annotated below. Still, the other sites close to me are representative of my neighborhood which was probably somewhere between 9.00 inches and 10.00 inches in 2011. So as far as my particular neighborhood is concerned, this year is very comparable to 2011 with respect to overall rainfall totals.

So in essence, this year appeared to have presented more opportunities for rainfall as compared to 2011, but many of those forecasted rainfall events either didn't provide me much relief or didn't materialize at all. The biggest difference between 2011 and now, is the weather pattern appears to be much more favorable for daily thundershowers for at least through the next 7 to 10 days. Whereas in 2011, this was the point of the summer where I got absolutely cooked and really got my "you know what" handed to me with back-to-back-to-back 100 Degree Days with rain chances just a mere mirage.


2011 Harris county rainfall totals from 12/31/2010 6PM to 8/06/2011 6PM:
2011 HARRIS COUNTY RAINFALL TOTALS - From 12.31.2010 1800 to 8.06.2011 1800.png
download (3).png


2022 Harris County Rainfall totals from 12/31/2021 6PM to 8/06/2022 6PM:
2022 HARRIS COUNTY RAINFALL TOTALS - From 12.31.2021 1800 to 8.06.2022 1800.png
download (4).png
You are definitely right. This weather pattern we are currently in (not what we just experienced last month) is completely different compared to 2011. If this pattern continues, tropical impacts from something later this month or September are going to be increasingly probable. I'm not buying the lower threat for us yet. For the first time this evening, I noticed lots of building cumulonimbus just offshore. I remember observing before Laura hit Louisiana a couple years ago quite the lightning show over the Gulf. That was about 3-4 weeks before Laura. While I did not see any lightning this evening in the offshore thunderstorms, I noticed a storm in Louisiana had quite a bit of lightning after dark. Just a reminder to be prepared for something as we approach peak season.

Edit: Also, the gauges you mentioned that recorded 0 rain in 2011 were almost certainly clogged. That is too large of a rain difference and there was some rain in 2011 for everyone. Just not much unfortunately.
Stratton20
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00z Icon with a weak depression/ tropical storm into The corpus area by next saturday
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869MB
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captainbarbossa19 wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 10:46 pm
869MB wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 9:15 pm After yet another day with rain showers and thundershowers dissipating as they moved toward my neighborhood, I decided to do a little auditing and compare this year with 2011 with respect to rainfall totals. And as I expected, my general area is running ahead of 2011's totals, but disturbingly, not by much. For some reason, the closest site to my neighborhood reflected 0.00 in 2011 as annotated below. Still, the other sites close to me are representative of my neighborhood which was probably somewhere between 9.00 inches and 10.00 inches in 2011. So as far as my particular neighborhood is concerned, this year is very comparable to 2011 with respect to overall rainfall totals.

So in essence, this year appeared to have presented more opportunities for rainfall as compared to 2011, but many of those forecasted rainfall events either didn't provide me much relief or didn't materialize at all. The biggest difference between 2011 and now, is the weather pattern appears to be much more favorable for daily thundershowers for at least through the next 7 to 10 days. Whereas in 2011, this was the point of the summer where I got absolutely cooked and really got my "you know what" handed to me with back-to-back-to-back 100 Degree Days with rain chances just a mere mirage.


2011 Harris county rainfall totals from 12/31/2010 6PM to 8/06/2011 6PM:
2011 HARRIS COUNTY RAINFALL TOTALS - From 12.31.2010 1800 to 8.06.2011 1800.png
download (3).png


2022 Harris County Rainfall totals from 12/31/2021 6PM to 8/06/2022 6PM:
2022 HARRIS COUNTY RAINFALL TOTALS - From 12.31.2021 1800 to 8.06.2022 1800.png
download (4).png
You are definitely right. This weather pattern we are currently in (not what we just experienced last month) is completely different compared to 2011. If this pattern continues, tropical impacts from something later this month or September are going to be increasingly probable. I'm not buying the lower threat for us yet. For the first time this evening, I noticed lots of building cumulonimbus just offshore. I remember observing before Laura hit Louisiana a couple years ago quite the lightning show over the Gulf. That was about 3-4 weeks before Laura. While I did not see any lightning this evening in the offshore thunderstorms, I noticed a storm in Louisiana had quite a bit of lightning after dark. Just a reminder to be prepared for something as we approach peak season.

Edit: Also, the gauges you mentioned that recorded 0 rain in 2011 were almost certainly clogged. That is too large of a rain difference and there was some rain in 2011 for everyone. Just not much unfortunately.
I didn't make note of that phenomenon before Hurricane Laura, but that's something I've always looked for over the years going into the 2nd and 3rd week of August because it usually signals a general weakness in the pattern that may offer a clue where an organized tropical system may attempt to head as the season progresses, everything else being equal.
869MB
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Stratton20 wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 11:11 pm 00z Icon with a weak depression/ tropical storm into The corpus area by next saturday
So Stratton, tells us why we don't want this ICON run, or any other forecast model with this solution, to be correct with this prognostication?
Stratton20
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869Mb actually we would want this to be correct, maybe come in a little further north though, a weak tropical system would bring widespread rain for most of SE Texas, granted this is just one model showing this solution, but this kind of scenario would be a really good for Texas
869MB
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I hear you Stratton, but I was going to share my opinion back at the beginning of July when you first began to post some mid-term & long-term models that were initially showing a good moisture feed into Texas, and then eventually started forming a circulation of various strengths moving into the mid/upper TX Coastline. Of course, that rainfall forecast ended up being a significant bust for many outside of the immediate coastal areas/counties especially west of I-45.

After experiencing numerous busts over the years like the one many of us experienced back in early July, I realized over the years that I never want to see a closed circulation develop offshore during the summer months.

First of all, the good multi-day moisture feed initially forecasted to pour into Texas by computer models gets wrapped up around a center of circulation. Once you introduce a center of circulation, then usually some sort of moisture gradient develops around such circulation. This moisture gradient usually increases when the center of circulation intensifies. So now, I have to root for said circulation to make a trajectory that will still deliver a good feed of moisture to my particular neighborhood. Now my moisture feed has been delayed by a day or two because the moisture has wrapped around this center. Also with this moisture gradient, now other parts of Texas that may be in the need of rain may miss out if the storm's trajectory is wrong, ie. shifts NE off into SW Louisiana or shoved down into Northern MX, etc.

In addition, and most importantly, now I have to guard against said circulation finding last-minute "favorable conditions" while still over warm Gulf waters that may lead to a much stronger cyclone before making landfall that you or I probably don't want to deal with. Who wants to face an Alicia, Humberto, or Harvey repeat?

All of this is merely my opinion after watching many rainfall busts over the years while also watching a few other events morph into something a lot more serious than just a few inches of beneficial rain. I honestly was just too bored with our weather pattern to share all of this back in July before that last inland rainfall bust.
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jasons2k
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Good morning - thanks for posting that and excellent observations.

It's similar here. I can't get any rain right at the house but just a mile and a half down Robinson Road the grass is green, there is standing water in the ditches -- even the road itself was leaching water yesterday morning on the way to tennis. All because during the last two weeks they got-in on those storms that blew up the second the cloud passed me haha.

In 2011 there wasn't any moisture to be found, anywhere, until you crossed the Sabine. So the daily rain chances are certainly helping and will continue to do so, but the places that have missed out on the rain lotto so far really need at least one good replenishing shower to carry us through to the next one.

Next weekend looks interesting. Like 869MB pointed out, I would rather not see a closed low going-in near Corpus. We'd get robbed up here again.
Cromagnum
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Here is hoping to a very early fall that lasts until December. We need something to make up for the 2022 non winter, craptastic sprummer, and Dante's inferno.
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