August 2022

[tireman4]

Will it be hot? Will it be rainy? Tropical mischief? Stay tuned..

[captainbarbossa19]

Something different in a good way than what we have been experiencing hopefully.

[Stratton20]

The latest noaa august outlook is not very encouraging…..

[captainbarbossa19]

The latest noaa august outlook is not very encouraging…..

No way they can possibly know because all it takes is for one storm to get into the Gulf and the ridge to be in the wrong place and the outlook will be different. Although this would be unlikely until the middle or end of the month to occur. So more than likely, the first-half will at least verify this way. It's certainly not impossible though for us to see something later on. The dry, hot weather pattern of 1980 persisted until Hurricane Allen finally broke down the heat dome. Then, the following month in September, we had Tropical Storm Danielle which caused flooding for many areas. This weather won't necessarily follow a 2011 repeat.

[Stratton20]

captainbarbossa19 man i hope we can get some sort of tropical system to bring us some needed rain, obviously nothing major ( hopefully) im about over this current pattern, grass and some plants ate starting to turn brown

[Cpv17]

I never even look at the monthly outlooks on there anymore. They’re extremely inaccurate more times than not. Even their 6-10 day outlooks can often be wrong.

[captainbarbossa19]

I never even look at the monthly outlooks on there anymore. They’re extremely inaccurate more times than not. Even their 6-10 day outlooks can often be wrong.

Yeah and August is really hard to predict. You pretty much have to flip a coin due to the tropics.

[DoctorMu]

Predicting: Normal in CLL. Which means hot and no rain until Fall classes begin.

Then the GoM will open up and our eyes will be on the tropics for a potentially wild 45 days.

[jasons2k]

Morning email (9:18am) from Jeff Lindner:

Fairly typical August weather pattern will be in place over SE TX this week.

Upper level low pressure system moving westward into the northern Mexican coast this morning will surge a plume of tropical moisture into the area today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms offshore currently will develop inland along the seabreeze front over the next several hours with daytime heating. Once temperatures reach the low to mid 90’s scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop.

Drier air mass sweeps inland on Tuesday and Wednesday with reduced rain chances both days (but not zero) as still expect some isolated to widely scattered activity along the seabreeze front.

Upper level low pressure system will move westward over the Gulf late this week and into the TX coast Friday-Saturday. Deep tropical moisture will accompany this feature and progress inland across much of SE TX by Friday. Rain chances will once again increase with activity focused near the coast and offshore during the overnight and early morning hours and then spreading inland during the day. Moisture values will be into the tropical levels by late week (PWS of 2.0-2.2 inches) and this will support rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour under the heavier storms.

Note:

July 2022 ended as the warmest July ever recorded at Galveston, Houston, and College Station.

Galveston recorded 15 straight days of a low temperature of 85 degrees or above (old record was 7). The low for Galveston of 86 on 8 different days in July was a new record maximum for the low temperature…8 different times!

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District

[Stratton20]

A bit off topic but just saw some images from the major flooding event that occurred in kentucky the past few days, at least 30 dead, absolutely devastating 🥲 just shows how incredibly dangerous flash flooding is